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Messages - Cain

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The DUP have been preparing for a No Deal, much like the Tory Brexit hardliners.

If they withdraw support, it won't collapse the government right away, but it will likely trigger a no confidence vote.  That will take at least a week.  Then, if May survives, she will have to limp on with no majority and half the backbenchers wanting her dead.

If she doesn't, the new leader will still have to choose between the DUP and the European Research Group ultras on Brexit.  Either one presents significant risks, someone likely cannot become leader without ERG support, but cannot govern the current Parliament without the DUP.  A leadership contest will take likely another week, though given the fractured and weak nature of the Tory front bench, this could extend to two.

So there would have to be another election, if a solution cannot be found that pleases the contradictory demands of the DUP and ERG.  That would require 2/3rds of Parliament to vote in favour of it, to waive the Set Parliament Act.  Lets be generous and assume 1-2 weeks for that debate.

Then there would need to be another month for the election to take place.  By now, this process has likely taken up more than a month.  However, if we assume the government falls due to the budget, then that puts the election during Christmas/New Year.  Parliamentary recess and common sense makes that impossible.  Instead they will choose either January 3rd or 9th.

The Tories still have a 4 point lead over Labour in the polls, though the above could definitely change all that.  But if that advantage remains, that puts them a point below the last election, meaning they would likely still win, but without an outright Parliamentary majority.  The Tories have to choose between minority rule or coalition, bringing them back to where they were during the leadership race.

It's now the middle of January, and nothing has progressed on Brexit.

So, if a backstop agreement cannot be made by the end of this month, France has said it will not have further meetings with the UK next month.  Negotiations would have to start again in December, but Parliament has Christmas holidays from Dec 20 to Jan 7, and government generally winds down after the first 2 weeks of the month anyway.

If a backstop cannot be agreed then,  it means there will be under 3 months to agree a deal, get the deal past Parliament, and then have every other EU state agree on it.  Brexit hardliners will say the backstop is remaining in the EU by stealth, and will not agree to it.  The UK cannot legally agree to a deal which places Northern Ireland on a different constitutional setting than the rest of the country, by making the backstop only apply there, and if they try, the DUP will collapse the government.  They might collapse the government anyway, depending on what happens with the upcoming budget.

Literate Chaotic / Re: Unofficial What are you Reading Thread?
« on: Yesterday at 11:48:12 am »
Oxford Univeristy Press, I got mine via Amazon.

There was an incident last year, where a Chinese bodyguard tried to grab the nuclear ball.  It's the usual bullshit dress down routine, it was reported on at the time.

It wasn't reported that China apologised, and that was rejected unless the guy came to the US and apologised under the American flag.


We will have the freedom to fail miserably on our own.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Random News Stories
« on: October 13, 2018, 10:46:43 pm »
Yeah.  It's really stupid though, it's ceding the oil fields to other countries, and with the secondary sanctions, specifically to Russia and China.

It's also the one Middle Eastern state that has a chance of becoming a functional democracy anytime soon, and could actually help in Iraq, Afghanistan and checking local Russian influence.  So of course, Trump will do his damndest to push them away, aided and abetted by the usual neocon suspects who have proven to be such strategic geniuses in the past.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Random News Stories
« on: October 13, 2018, 10:24:02 pm »
Not any time soon. Rouhani has been neutered by the conservative clerics, and they won't move against the Revolutionary Guard.  The war talk being pushed by Bolton also, of course, empowers the military factions over there as well, so even if some were willing, they'd say now is not the time.

I was rather hoping economic forces would render them less dangerous in the long run, but that does rely on the US lifting sanctions at some point.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Random News Stories
« on: October 13, 2018, 09:48:29 pm »
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard make a lot of money off of Iran being internationally isolated.  It's classic "better to rule in hell" logic, they'd rather dominate the smoking crater of the Iranian economy with global sanctions arrayed against them, then be just one player among many in a globally integrated Iranian economy.

Hence why the Revolutionary Guard keep kidnapping people from countries that do business in Iran.

And since the Qoms Brigade of the Revolutionary Guard often handles the terrorist side of things...I'm sure you can see where I'm going here?

Apple Talk / Re: This chair leg vs your cranium.
« on: October 13, 2018, 09:22:08 pm »

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Here we go again.
« on: October 13, 2018, 09:17:33 pm »
If Italy doesn't do it, Jacob Rees-Mogg will oblige:

A no-deal Brexit would send shockwaves through the global financial system and is one of the main risks to economic stability, the International Monetary Fund has said.

Echoing concerns from the Bank of England, the Washington-based organisation said the potential for millions of financial contracts between City banks and their counterparts across rest of Europe to collapse in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal was a major worry.

The warning puts further pressure on the European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative MPs to justify a no-deal Brexit over a compromise negotiated by the prime minister that includes an agreement on cross-border financial contracts.
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Theresa May is seeking a settlement that at the very least would provide the legal framework for planes to fly across the channel, medicines to be imported from the continent and trillions of pounds worth of cross-border financial contracts to be maintained.

A no-deal scenario has the potential to undermine legal contracts and disrupt trade with the result that the UK would suffer a post-Brext recession, the Treasury has argued. The IMF said its central forecast remained that by the end of the year Brussels and London would agree a path towards a deal on trade in goods and services.

But it warned in a report for its annual meeting, which is staged this year in the Indonesian resort of Bali, that the failure to make progress not only had implications for the UK and eurozone economies but could also drag down the global economy.

« on: October 12, 2018, 10:06:52 pm »

Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 09:07:36 pm »
Probably not.  But it was nice to see a not insigificant amount of senators are willing to hold Saudi Arabia to account on something.  It's a start.  For a while there I thought MBS might get a senior US politician to lick his boots clean or something.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 04:06:45 pm »
Well, let's not count all our chickens just yet.

Any investigation is going to confirm that Jared and Bolton were talking with Saudi officials about Khasoggi, just days before he vanished.  And the President doesn't have to do anything, other than give a briefing explaining what the investigation found, and what he intends to do.  So of course, Trump will do nothing.

More interesting to me is that a significant number of Senators were willing to to this level right away.  I suspect recent Saudi behaviour has been raising more eyebrows in DC than is commonly acknowledged...maybe the Senate is finally getting sick of having to clean up whatever mess MBS has gotten himself into this week.  They're nowhere near jettisoning the alliance of course, not yet, but it's a step closer.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 03:12:49 pm »
It is.  Even better, the Senate has finally done a smart the US legal system, if the chairman and ranking member of "an appropriate congressional committee" requests the Magnitsky Act be used, it triggers a provision where the President has 120 days to respond with a classified or unclassified briefing that has to determine if a crime has been committed and whether the President intends to impose sanctions if so.

Bob Corker and Robert Menendez, the chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have requested the act be used.

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