« on: October 19, 2016, 02:07:23 am »
Trump's going all in on "the election is rigged", and quite frankly, the DNC's inability to even spin their bullshit in a positive way ("we exist to stop Trump's taking over the Democrats") is a significant contributory factor to the whole mess.
I'm predicting violence post election. I'm also predicting an energised militia movement, well beyond what we saw in the 1990s. I'm predicting a GOP civil war in which groups and individuals connected or sympathetic to such people are victorious. Russian response hard to say, but "continued fuckery of a general kind" is a safe bet. Actual existentsial threats (climate change, nuclear proliferation) will continued to be ignored. Syria will continue to be a metasizing cancer, threatening more direct conflict between NATO and Russia, in addition to generalised terrorism issue (especially as ISIS continues and foreign fighters flee back to Europe - yes, I see you, you little jihadi wannabe bitches). I'm predicting an uptick in Russian involvement in European far-right politics - Brexit will give motivation to NF in France, AfD and others who rely on Russian patrons to keep the bills paid.
Note: I'm writing this up on some fucking terrible whiskey, but these are probabilities I've been considering for a while, which is why the whiskey is a factor, rather than influencing the analysis itself. Got to look at the situation from the perspective of the alt-right, and Russia. If the alt-right succeed in a coup within the Republican Party, then you have an explicitly white nationalist ideology commanding a major party of a western power. That's not the Presidency, sure, thank god, but it's nevertheless a win, given the US duopoly. Unless US oligarchs smarten the fuck up, they're going to be played, especially if they see the alt-right as an insurgent movement they can use to advance the most radical parts of their agenda (just like Prussian nationalists and the Nazis - radical nationalists will always eventually slip the leash, set their own agenda. Populist movement can take better advantage of changing conditions on the ground without due consideration of elite interests).
Russia aims generally for political chaos. Mistake to consider ideological premise behind that...there is a certain affinity of course, but geopolitical considerations trump (lol) ideological ones every day. Force split between US and NATO allies in Europe. Chief aim is contest American littoral access to Baltic-foolish in and of itself, hence the lack of assistance to ethnic Russian enclaves in those areas. Instead, decry American imperialism in UK/Germany/France/Spain/Italy and drive interests between western and eastern Europe in the Cold War sense of the term. Why stick necks out for Latvians/Lithuanians/Poles? Drive dvisions through xenophobic political parties but use refugee crisis as ostensible cause (cannot trust Arabs > cannot trust other Europeans, even historical alliances. Must be prepared to stand alone...even though it fucks up NATO military doctrine where US provides the manpower and money, and European allies field specialised, auxiliary forces). All military action must be painted as American meddling, even when it is in response to Russian meddling. Heighten the contradictions, not for "the revolution" but for chaos which allows Russia to advance it's own interest. Of course America has own interests in Europe, but far closer aligned to European values/liberal democracy than Ruissia.
Either way, America has no central ground to rally on. Positions would be not much different if reversed ie; Chinese support of Democrats in election. Nevertheless, unlike Russia, China is a status quo power, not interested (at least atm) in rewriting fundamental rules of international system.