Indecision 08 Wingnut thread

[Iason Ouabache]

just for shits n giggles, what are the realistic scenarios for a McCain win?

Realistic?  Obama majorly screws up (kicks a puppy, eats a baby on live tv). Or Bradley Effect.  Or massive voter fraud.  There is also a possibility that every single poll is off by 10 points. I guess anything is possible.

[Jenne]

just for shits n giggles, what are the realistic scenarios for a McCain win?

Realistic?  Obama majorly screws up (kicks a puppy, eats a baby on live tv). Or Bradley Effect.  Or massive voter fraud.  There is also a possibility that every single poll is off by 10 points. I guess anything is possible.

That's all tinfoil hat schtuff, though.

[LMNO]

well, I meant the ever-so-precise state breakdown as the Obama predictions, but it looks like no ones being even handed at this point.

[Jenne]

well, I meant the ever-so-precise state breakdown as the Obama predictions, but it looks like no ones being even handed at this point.

You don't like 538's take on it then?

[LMNO]

see, this is me not wanting to do reasearch.

[Jenne]

see, this is me not wanting to do reasearch.

  lazyass.  Here, I'll screenshot.

[Sir Squid Diddimus]

Early voter turnout total for FL:
1,185,554

Early voter turnout for NC: (Northhhhhh Carolinnnna)
1,284,177
ballots cast by:
dem- 771,549
rep-396,109


just sayin.


source:cnn.com

[Jenne]

Swing-swing goes Fla.  But that's fine--hopefully those AARP fucks have got their acts together and help the grannies vote properly this time.

[Iason Ouabache]

well, I meant the ever-so-precise state breakdown as the Obama predictions, but it looks like no ones being even handed at this point.

Fine, I'll play around with Daily Kos's map thingee until I get a realistic scenario for McCain winning.

[Sir Squid Diddimus]

Swing-swing goes Fla.  But that's fine--hopefully those AARP fucks have got their acts together and help the grannies vote properly this time.

I helped my mom (who is a granny) fill out her ballot 

[Jenne]

Swing-swing goes Fla.  But that's fine--hopefully those AARP fucks have got their acts together and help the grannies vote properly this time.

I helped my mom (who is a granny) fill out her ballot 

Yay Squiddy!  I really don't want a repeat of "Recount."

[Iason Ouabache]

Ok, I'll give McCain the current battleground states: Indiana, Missouri, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina. That makes it Obama 309, McCain 229.  Giving McCain Ohio and North Dakota (which he isn't likely to win right now) brings him up to only 252. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the top after that.

The odds of all of that happening at the same time is roughly 4%.

[Sir Squid Diddimus]

Swing-swing goes Fla.  But that's fine--hopefully those AARP fucks have got their acts together and help the grannies vote properly this time.

I helped my mom (who is a granny) fill out her ballot 

Yay Squiddy!  I really don't want a repeat of "Recount."

Oh honey this is Florida. We're gonna have a recount.

[Jenne]

Swing-swing goes Fla.  But that's fine--hopefully those AARP fucks have got their acts together and help the grannies vote properly this time.

I helped my mom (who is a granny) fill out her ballot 

Yay Squiddy!  I really don't want a repeat of "Recount."

Oh honey this is Florida. We're gonna have a recount.

[AFK]

www.realclearpolitics.com is the site I use.  They do averages of all the polls.  Plus they have an interactive map where you can do your own scenarios.  There is one where Obama can win without FLA OH and Penn.  But it means he has to win Virginia and Nevada, and hold all the other states.  If he does that it's 270-268 Obama/McCain.  If McCain were somehow able to pick off the 1 EV from Maine, we'd have a dead heat 269-269.  Wouldn't that be fun?