Notes for modern day Princes #2 The lay of the land

[Cain]

Therefore, the Romans, foreseeing  troubles, dealt with them at once, and, even to avoid a war, would not let them come to a head, for they knew that war is not to be avoided, but is only put off to the advantage of others
- Niccolo Machiavelli

Rulers see through spies, as cows see through smell, Brahmins through scripture and the rest of the people through their normal eyes.
- Kautilya

The successful way to wage any war is to make sure you are the winner before a shot is even fired.  In fact, if you're really good, then the enemy shouldn't know there is a war even going on in the first place, let alone that you are their enemy.  There is no sense in taking unnecessary risks after all. 

People are planning to spring a trap on me.  Its nothing personal, its just that, well, why should I and people like me take £200 a month, much of which goes back into the economy, when it could be given to bankers, who can then sit on it and do nothing?  You of course see the dilemma.  The plan is to get me two weeks from now.  I go in to show my list, as per normal, and instead I get shunted into a side room.  Two people then "evaluate" my claims and if they are not satisfactory, they can suspend payments, awaiting enquiries, which mostly consists of trying to downplay any job applications I am making, in order to keep my benefits cut off.

Unfortunately for them, "their" people in office aren't really theirs anymore.  I got tipped off.  Why?  Because I made an effort, slight though it was, to be polite, to be kind, to be punctual and to be entertaining when previously dealing with the bureaucrats.  Its only 10 minutes a fortnight, so it costs nothing, and makes them like me.  And in return, they either tip me off about certain jobs when they come through or, as now, give me a heads up when something is planned to go down.

So, these special officers did not do the fucking research, and they're going to pay for it.  I have the records to hand to prove what I have been doing, and then some.  My defence is iron-cast.  Admittedly, its not disembowelling them, but for bureaucrats, failing to get someone when in theory you have caught them off guard is a painful reversal of fortunes.  Besides, its been at least a couple of hundred years since we started systematically killing government officials around here, so its probably not a popular option any more.

They'll come after me again, I'm sure.  Or someone else will.  The entire point of welfare is to keep people from rioting and to affirm their dependency on the system anyway.  Its not really charity, its designed to say "without us, you're fucked.  Show some fucking respect, peon".  Unfortunately for them, I had a bad upbringing.  Or I'm just naturally resistant to the siren calls of authority or something.  Either way, I just despise them more, for thinking pathetic thug tactics and a trickle of cash can buy my undying respect, or at least quiet obedience. 

The point of this is to illustrate the failure of my would be enemies.  As I said above, they did not do the fucking research.  Maybe they are too set in their ways, and the local bureaucrats knew they were coming.  Most probably they had no real idea of who they were dealing with.  Either way, their failure is not my problem, except to see that they keep on failing when it comes to me.

I don't intend to replicate their mistakes, either.  I do have a war planned, and that means meticulous planning.  Resistance is a given.  My actions will step on toes, upset the status quo and pose a threat to the continued success and power of some of those around me.  Eventually, an equilibrium may be reached, but by that point I intend to be established, and that will obviously be to the detriment of others.  Power is so often a zero-sum game.

And that means doing the fucking research.  Sure, I could go charging in blindly, but what would be the point of that?  Sometimes plans have to be abandoned, and sometimes boldness is called for, but these are exceptions, not the rule.  I will not alienate those who could be my allies through foolishness, nor will I overlook those who could be a threat, regardless of their status in society.  I will follow the logic of course and effect and try to extrapolate several steps ahead, so that I can forsee problems and cut them off before they develop.

Of course, things have moved on a little bit since Machiavelli's time, to say nothing of Kautilya.  But the principles are fairly solid.  Work from well established public knowledge inwards.  Public libraries, the internet and newspapers are all excellent for the former and, if you have some special skills, the latter as well.  Note the people who command respect, who are the movers and shakers in your area.  Look through their pasts for signs of sudden shifts in fortune, ruthless power grabs, meteoritic rises in power.  Those are people you mark carefully in a file called "dangerous".  They're the Machiavellians, the ones who are used to playing the game of power to get their own way.  Regardless of what they actually want, they're people not to trust, except in situations where you've already limited their options drastically.  And even then, don't turn your back on them.

However, few of these are ever present at such a low level, and never for long.  Such people, unless they misstep, screw up and do not find a patsy to take the fall or else are too obvious in their desire for power, often move on quickly.  Instead, it will be the weekend players, the little league politicians, to watch out for.  What they lack in cunning they make up in small-minded nastiness, ethnocentric outlook and inefficient brutality.  Easy to sidestep, but in a fight on their preferred turf, they will tear you apart.  Tread carefully, and take them on when it suits you, on your terms.  Lure them to places where their footing is less sure and attack on their flanks.

And there are other players too.  Suckers, disaffected insiders, bored rebels in the making.  It is never good to rely on too strict a taxonomy, for you may miss an example of a personality you have not considered.  Rely on actions, note appearances but do not set too much stock by them, since they can be manipulated fronts designed to fool people.

And never overlook the systems of relationships between people.  Who relies on who?  Where is there bad blood, ongoing vendettas that can be manipulated, whose interests align?  Who can relied on to stab their patrons in the back, or tends to abandon their family and friends except in particular situations?

You may want some pen and paper for this.  It tends to take a while.  And your picture will never be complete, so remember to develop heuristics for understanding your local power system, and remember the exceptions as much as possible.

And don't overlook individual psychology.  As much as structures fascinate me, having a grip on an individuals motivations, what makes them tick, what ticks them off and what merely bores them, is vital.  These are levers for manipulation.  If people leave them unguarded, then they're stupid and deserve to be abused by anyone smart enough to do so.  Spying of this nature is more difficult.  If you excel in social situations, then posing as your own spy is probably best.  Second hand information is always untrustworthy.  Alternatively, one can use others, unwillingly or otherwise.  Trusted confederates may have access to people and places you cannot go.  Your mark may be a savvy political player, but their brother or sister or best friend may not. 

Once you understand the network, you have the art of the possible in your grasp.  And then you can start to make your plans.

[Prelate Diogenes Shandor]

Just out of curiousity, are you going to be doing insights about Machiavelli's Discourses on Titus Livy too?

[Cain]

Just out of curiousity, are you going to be doing insights about Machiavelli's Discourses on Titus Livy too?

It may come up.  I'm more relating Machiavelli's own general teachings to my particular situation (for which The Prince is most useful), but since Book three of Discourses is pretty similar to the Prince anyhow, it may get included.

[Jenne]

Wow.  You're describing the epitome of "It's not who you are but who you know"--but you can also add "and what you know" to that addage.

Brilliant, Cain, simply brilliant.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Just out of curiousity, are you going to be doing insights about Machiavelli's Discourses on Titus Livy too?

It may come up.  I'm more relating Machiavelli's own general teachings to my particular situation (for which The Prince is most useful), but since Book three of Discourses is pretty similar to the Prince anyhow, it may get included.

The Prince is most useful these days, at any rate.

[Dr. Paes]

 

[Triple Zero]

Cain that was great! Reminds me to put in some extra effort to be nice to the bureaucrats. I'm always polite already, but a bit of extra friendly or perhaps personal chitchat may go a long way.

[Aufenthatt]