THE INEVITABLE SWINE FLU THREAD: How bad is it where YOU are?

[Xooxe]

I found an article from May 11, by someone called Henry Niman. (I don't know enough about viruses and I haven't cross-referenced what he writes. Bear that in mind.)

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120903/Swine_H1N1_Seasonal.html

The beginning of the article explains that novel H1N1 has overtaken seasonal flu, then goes on to explain why it may be spreading so well during summer.

This movement of swine H1N1 into the human population is cause for concern. The increase over seasonal flu may be driven by the avian PB2 gene in the swine isolate.  Position 627 is E, which favors growth at the higher body temperature of birds.  Seasonal flu has a K at position 627, which allows for more rapid replication at a lower temperature, which is consistent with the internal temperature of a human nose in the winter.

The  presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels.  However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination.  This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

That was May 11. Then, there's this posted today: http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06180901/H1N1_Swine_E627K.html

The recently released PB2 sequence from a patient in Shanghai (see updated map) contains E627K.  This is the first reported acquisition of this change, which is present in virtually all human influenza A isolates, including the pandemic strain from 1918.  

The current isolate, A/Shanghai/71T/2009, was collected May 31, 2009 and the sequence was deposited at Genbank on June 10, 2009.  The isolate is closely related to the swine H1N1 currently spreading worldwide, and all positions upstream from E627K match the consensus sequence, indicating the E627K was not acquired through reassortment with human PB2 or other H1N1 viruses that were not closely related to the swine H1N1 circulating in the human population.

...

Thus, the acquisition of PB2 E627K in the swine H1N1 is readily explain by homologous recombination with locally related sequences containing E627K, which was a concern when the swine H1N1 begun transmitting efficiently in humans .  This sustain efficient transmission lead to a phase 6 designation for the 2009 Pandemic.  

The acquisition of E627K creates concern that the virus will evolve into a more lethal agent that will be associated with an increased case fatality rate in previously healthy young adults, as was seen in the 1918 Pandemic.

He seems quick to point to 1918 in a lot of what I've read of him, and I'm not sure whether there's some kind of serious bias in his interpretation. I don't know enough about this so I'm going to check other sources, but I find it interesting.

EDIT: At further glance, a lot of the news section on that site loves to talk about 1918 excessively. Be skeptical.

[Cain]

So there could be hundreds of thousands of cases of swine flu by the end of August in the UK.

People are starting to panic, its wonderful.

[LMNO]

Buy a case of surgical masks.

Sell them at 200% profit.

[Cain]

Water and sugar in syringes = "Swine flu vaccine"

[LMNO]

THAT'S THE SPIRIT!

[Darth Cupcake]

A former classmate from when my friend was in grad school (last year) just died of swine flu.

Crazytalk.

[Cain]

Oh?  Were they suffering from some sort of underlying condition?  I ask because I've never heard of someone who wasn't very old or very young dying from it without suffering from something else, too.

[Darth Cupcake]

Oh?  Were they suffering from some sort of underlying condition?  I ask because I've never heard of someone who wasn't very old or very young dying from it without suffering from something else, too.

Yeah, he apparently got another infection while he was in the weakened state so they just sort of fed off each other.

[Cain]

Urgh, that sucks.  Infections can happen to anyone, as well, which makes it worse.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

So there could be hundreds of thousands of cases of swine flu by the end of August in the UK.

People are starting to panic, its wonderful.

Is there an "I called it" emote? 

[tyrannosaurus vex]

pretty sure i have the swine flu now. it sucks but i don't think it's going to kill me.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Don't die, Vex!

What's it like?

[Xooxe]

I ask because I've never heard of someone who wasn't very old or very young dying from it without suffering from something else, too.

I don't have any sources from CDC, or WHO at hand, but I've read of just over half of the deaths being due to underlying conditions, and the vast majority of all the deaths are in the age range of 20 to 55, peaking at 37. 



More relatively interesting stuff - http://www.physorg.com/news165515121.html

The influenza virus that wreaked worldwide havoc in 1918-1919 founded a viral dynasty that persists to this day, according to scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. In an article published online on June 29 by the New England Journal of Medicine, authors Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., Jeffery K. Taubenberger, M.D., Ph.D., and David M. Morens, M.D., argue that we have lived in an influenza pandemic era since 1918, and they describe how the novel 2009 H1N1 virus now circling the globe is yet another manifestation of this enduring viral family.

Also:

While the dynasty founded by the virus of 1918 shows little evidence of being overthrown, the NIAID authors note that there may be some cause for optimism. When viewed through a long lens of many decades, it does appear that successive pandemics and outbreaks caused by later generations of the 1918 influenza dynasty are decreasing in severity, notes Dr. Morens. This is due in part to advances in medicine and public health measures, he says, but this trend also may reflect viral evolutionary pathways that favor increases in the virus's ability to spread from host to host, combined with decreases in its tendency to kill those hosts.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/1715543/deficient_binding_protein_explains_h1n1s_infection_pattern/

Though the swine flu has continued to spread across the planet in recent weeks, health experts have observed an infection pattern that tends to produce smaller, localized outbreaks rather than massive, wildfire-like epidemics.  Researchers at the highly-esteemed Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology now say they have pinned the fortuitous trend on a defunct viral protein.

The researchers point to a binding protein on the surface of the H1N1 virus that is not very adept at doing its job—holding tight to cell receptors in the human respiratory tract.

All I see is a potential flock of black swans though. Argentina has announced a health emergency with a case-fatality ratio of about 2.6%, while Australia, in flu season, seems to be doing about as well as the UK. Fuck knows. Good news, bad news, and a truck-load of varying statistics, all collected in different ways, and delayed by days and weeks.

[Xooxe]

Oh shit, I forgot to include this link - http://www.naturalnews.com/026503_pandemic_swine_flu_bioterrorism.html

  Journalist Files Charges against WHO and UN for Bioterrorism and Intent to Commit Mass Murder

In her charges, Burgermeister presents evidence of acts of bioterrorism that is in violation of U.S. law by a group operating within the U.S. under the direction of international bankers who control the Federal Reserve, as well as WHO, UN and NATO. This bioterrorism is for the purpose of carrying out a mass genocide against the U.S. population by use of a genetically engineered flu pandemic virus with the intent of causing death. This group has annexed high government offices in the U.S.

[tyrannosaurus vex]

Don't die, Vex!

What's it like?

It's like having a cold, a flu, tonsillitis, bronchitis, throat cancer, and full-blown AIDS all at once, plus the symptoms are impervious to anything you can get over-the-counter. so yeah it's pretty cool.