Olduvai Cliff theory

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true... in fact, its one of the few reasons that 'Global Warming' still lives in my 'probably, not definately" category. Humans, ever since they've existed have adapted and changed and survived. Even when they had no idea what was going on, like Europe during the mini Ice Age... they realized that they couldn't grow grain anymore and started growing potatoes... well except for the French, but what can you expect?

If humans have advanced notice of any Calamity, it seems like we generally avert it or compensate for it.

Yeah, we suck... but we're damned good at adapting.

Survivorship bias.

Did you read the Black Swan? These kinds of mistakes are one of the many reasons why humans fail so hard at predicting.. anything.

Reminds me of the thanksgiving turkey story, as well (but that's a different kind of bias).

I could see it as Suvivorship bias if I said "Americans' will survive, or more specifically *insert specific subset of humans* will survive. I suppose we could argue that there have been entire species that have failed, but (at least based on my knowledge) those species didn't tend to adapt as well as humans and their predecessors.

Certianly we could be wiped out by a Black Swan event. Asteroid, all the volcanoes on the planet suddenly erupting, a Dalek invasion etc. But, that's not what I was talking about "If humans have advanced notice of any Calamity, it seems like we generally avert it or compensate for it."

The IF bit is key and by definition would exclude Black Swan events.

Otherwise, hell yeah, past performance doesn't guarantee future results

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

Well, if any of the predicted catastrophes had come true, if everyone was wiped out there would be no one to complain about it, and if most people were wiped out there would be far fewer of us to complain about it. Until we come across many very detailed records of fully eradicated cultures on our level of advanced-ness, we are highly unlikely to be able to predict accurately what is likely to kill us, and once we have compensated that won't help either because the situation will have changed. Our own past certainly can't help us, aside from the fact that near misses will generally progress in the direction of far misses.

[Triple Zero]

(To Rat, also basically what Enki said)

No, that's not survivorship bias. Or if it is, I mean a very different kind of bias.

I wasnt talking about Black Swan events (whatever it is you mean by that), but about the sorts of bias that preclude humans (in particular) from making any sort of reliable predictions in certain (maybe all) situations. Which is described in the book Black Swan, which is why I asked. it talks about a whole lot more things than just "Black Swan Events" as  "rare, highly unpredictable events with a very large impact that appear very easy to explain in hindsight" (emphasized the last bit which everybody always seems to conveniently forget, ruling out Dalek invasion and possibly global volcanic catastrophe too).

anyway my point was not about Black Swans but a different one.

the fact that mankind has survived up until now, is no fact that you can infer any conclusion from, because if it wasn't true, you wouldnt be there to infer anything.

that may sound funny to you, but I'm being serious.

it's an important result of Bayesian statistics:

i) The probability that mankind has survived up until now, given that you are able to make the statement "I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true..." (any statement actually), is 100%

ii) The probability of an event A (in your case, mankind continuing to NOT die out given we have advance notice), given an event B with 100% probability, is exactly equal to the probability of event A itself.

iii) Hence, mankind surviving up until now (given advance notice etc or not), is no argument to base anything upon.

This is subtly, but fundamentally different from the problem of inference ("past performance doesn't guarantee future results"), because even if you somehow get around the problem of inference, Bayesian statistics remain.

Our monkey brains aren't quite evolved to wrap our heads around this, though.

[Cain]

Up until now, I have never died.  Therefore, I will never die, or the chance of it happening is extremely unlikely.

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

That was kind of what I was going for. It doesn't mean that it can't happen, or is unlikely to happen -- it just means that we cannot predict how likely it is to happen, and if it happens it would basically prevent knowing anything about the aftermath outside of conjecture. And if it would have happened and we avoided it, it didn't happen, and we can only guess whether or not it would have happened had we not avoided it, and so we are back at square one. Armageddon is elusive because we have no hard facts to support anythiing about it in any way, and can't.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Hrmmm, I wonder if there's some miscommunication here... My point wasn't that there is no way we can all die... only that, given the historical data available, previous "OMG We're All Gonna Die" events have been adapted to rather well by humans.

Up until now, I have never died.  Therefore, I will never die, or the chance of it happening is extremely unlikely.

Rather "Up till now, I have always overcome predicted fatal situations through ingenuity. Therefore, another predicted fatal situation seems likely survivable. I may die, but there's a lot of evidence that indicates I may well survive"

Does that make more sense? Rather than "We aren't dead yet, therefore we're immortal" I was thinking more along the lines of "We have a good track record of adaptation, therefore it seems reasonable to think we'll likely adapt'.

The Olduvai Cliff theory seems to think that we will somehow not be able to get energy from another source, once we realize we're in the Olduvai slide. Yet, it appears to me that we humans are implementing several other ways of getting energy besides fossil fuels. Based on wind technology, new solar tech, nuclear tech etc it seems that we may have weaned ourselves off of a great deal of oil in the next 100 years, if we determined that Oil was gonna dry up long before then, it seems reasonable to conclude we would invest more time and treasure into those options.

Certainly Extinction level events are possible. One would have thought the people of Pompeii would have said "Oi! That mountain is spitting smoke, maybe now is a good time for a trip to the mainland." In hindsight, its easy to see. If there is a end of the World scenario, i think its likely to have come from a scenario like that, rather than something predicted 50 years before it happens....

...assuming the republicans aren't in charge of course 

[Rococo Modem Basilisk]

Well, now that we know about this, we can try to adapt to it. That changes the game entirely. Predicting apocalypse has the tendency to prevent it.

[Prelate Diogenes Shandor]

EVERYTHING falls apart...one way or another.......

[Honey]

I like LMNO's take, this isn't addressing all relevant factors.  It makes a good point, that the current economic / industrial system DOES eat resources to exhaustion very well, but branching over to Ratatosk's point, doesn't regard people as adaptable.

Branching into cynicism about this also, many people NEVER disinguish between "End of Life" and "End of lifestyle".  Also, the ones telling people how fucked they are usually have an agenda or product they are trying to push. 

Excellent points! It's like all that "Save the Earth" bullshit. The Earth will be fine, Even with Global Warming, the earth and Sun and planets will be fanfuckingtastic. ...

Even then, the Earth will spin on happily... probably like a cat that's just gotten a flea bath.

I agree wholeheartedly!  Fanfuckingtastic!  & here is where I go off on a personal tangent – please skip to last line if that is not your cup o' tea.

Went out on a blind date a few years ago.  This very nice lady I worked with at the time (a molecular biologist & very sweet & well-meaning) set me up with her somehow vaguely related friend.  Well & what happened? you might be wondering & why does that particular phrase bring to mind that godforsaken date?  or maybe not.  Anywaay, I was sitting there making small talk & shit like that which I can sometimes do, nervously drawing things on the table & in myhead & THEN – something in me just snapped into two or three pieces -  I proceeded to go off on some sorta mini-rant 'bout this very same thing – sheeeeesh & I was really on a roll there for a bit (whew) – talkin' my buuuuullshit  'bout how the Earth will still be here & the stars planets suns et cetera & ad nauseam & even about the DINOSAURS to be a tad specific here.  Well, the next day, this very nice lady asked me how it went & all.  All I could bluster up at the time was to embarrassedly tell her something or other 'bout the dinosaurs.  She was    & I was very 

Needless to say – never heard from or saw that guy again & he was off & married in the span of three or four months.  Wish them both well too 'cuz he was a nice guy even if he was a bit goyish. 

& now?  Immediately after this glorious what-have-you I made the mistake (big time) of tellin' my friend Suz all the gory details & even NOW (to this very friggin' day) she goes on & on & is always warning me when I'm going out with someone new, "Just don't bring up the dinosaurs, OKAY?"  Like it's supposed to be some sorta mantra?  I tell her I'll try but they just slip out sometimes & I think y'know what I mean?  Dammitt – why can't I ever learn?  Appropriate?  hah!   

The last line:
As for this notion?  This notion is "eerie and ominous" but doesn't strike me as one that accounts for all the variables, however interesting.   

[LMNO]

Fuck that, Honey.  Bring up the Dinosaurs every single time.  When you meet someone who jumps up and cheers you on, you know you've got a keeper.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

Fuck that, Honey.  Bring up the Dinosaurs every single time.  When you meet someone who jumps up and cheers you on, you know you've got a keeper.

This is the correct Extinction Level Event Motorcycle.

[Honey]

Hey Thanks!   

& I didn't mean to misrepresent my friend Suz either.  We've known each other since high school & she really wants to meet someone & dates way more than I do.  I listen to her when her heart breaks & she listens to my crazy ass notions even when I start to wax rhapsodic (or moronic).  Honestly I think I make her dizzy at times.

[Kai]

I have yet to see any of the historical "We're all gonna run out of * and DIE" come true... in fact, its one of the few reasons that 'Global Warming' still lives in my 'probably, not definately" category. Humans, ever since they've existed have adapted and changed and survived. Even when they had no idea what was going on, like Europe during the mini Ice Age... they realized that they couldn't grow grain anymore and started growing potatoes... well except for the French, but what can you expect?

If humans have advanced notice of any Calamity, it seems like we generally avert it or compensate for it.

Yeah, we suck... but we're damned good at adapting.

Survivorship bias.

Did you read the Black Swan? These kinds of mistakes are one of the many reasons why humans fail so hard at predicting.. anything.

Reminds me of the thanksgiving turkey story, as well (but that's a different kind of bias).

To build upon that, people denied the happening of regular extinction of types (ie species) for hundreds of years, because they couldn't conceive that what god would create in perfection he would allow to be destroyed (outside of Noah's flood). This leads to thinking that the present species are the pinacal of existence, where a better way to look at it is that they exist simply because their lineage's made it to this point for whatever environmental ecological reasons, some of them quite random. The same goes for humans; we're obligate tool users with a big frontal lobe but that doesn't exclude us from the normal happenstance extinction events that have been going on for the last 3.5 billion years.

[Kai]

Strike that. You'all already covered it. 

[Triple Zero]

This leads to thinking that the present species are the pinacal of existence, where a better way to look at it is that they exist simply because their lineage's made it to this point for whatever environmental ecological reasons, some of them quite random. The same goes for humans; we're obligate tool users with a big frontal lobe but that doesn't exclude us from the normal happenstance extinction events that have been going on for the last 3.5 billion years.

hm it's probably / mostly because it's my own species then, that I (like Rat) sort of hope we can be [Dr Who] Brilliant [/Dr Who], and survive indefinitely?

although, IMO, we would have to get our collective arses off this planet some day, though.

if we would, what then? this is an area regular biology doesnt cover right?

although I'm not that optimistic to say that before we reach an age of space colonies and stuff, we might get thrown back into the stone age (or similar) one or more times. And yes, there's a good possibilty we might not survive one of those hits.

Fuck, there's me babbling about space colonies..