30,000 new targets to be placed in Afghanistan

[East Coast Hustle]

I'm not saying that you're wrong, just that you're not necessarily right, or at least that what facts are available leave themselves wide open to interpretation.

the "instead of relying on rhetoric" comment was poorly thought-out and shitty, and nothing more than misplaced ire at something else that was going on at the time. For that, I apologize since I know that you're generally not one to spout off without having thought about the subject at hand.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I'm not saying that you're wrong, just that you're not necessarily right, or at least that what facts are available leave themselves wide open to interpretation.

the "instead of relying on rhetoric" comment was poorly thought-out and shitty, and nothing more than misplaced ire at something else that was going on at the time. For that, I apologize since I know that you're generally not one to spout off without having thought about the subject at hand.

S'okay.  I do occasionally get caught playing the old ass-kazoo, but in this case I am going to stand with my own experiences with China, and with such links as I have dug up.

I'd always be interested in looking at other sources because I do realize that I am condemning 1.5 Bn people as a society based on maybe 100 people.

However, the ecological disaster there, particularly in deforestation/desertification is pretty much a given.  The Chinese are in deep shit.

[East Coast Hustle]

on that we are in complete agreement.

we're probably also in agreement that the Chinese being in deep shit means that everybody with arable land is also in deep shit.

[Jenne]

ECH, you're calling on Rog and I to debunk something that's pretty well fucking known, sorry.  China is not a free republic, it's a tightly controlled fuckface of an economy.  Western business partners are given only as much leeway as what's necessary to take from them what China wants.  Are we pretending here that their business practices are equitable and so therefore their populace is allowed to live free and do as they please? 

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!

Yeah, no.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA!

Never.

Did you see wtf happened when Google of all things tried to implement some free press?  I'm not saying it's as bad as North Korea over there, but it's certainly not much different than, say, Iran, for example.

[Jenne]

I'm not saying that you're wrong, just that you're not necessarily right, or at least that what facts are available leave themselves wide open to interpretation.

the "instead of relying on rhetoric" comment was poorly thought-out and shitty, and nothing more than misplaced ire at something else that was going on at the time. For that, I apologize since I know that you're generally not one to spout off without having thought about the subject at hand.

S'okay.  I do occasionally get caught playing the old ass-kazoo, but in this case I am going to stand with my own experiences with China, and with such links as I have dug up.

I'd always be interested in looking at other sources because I do realize that I am condemning 1.5 Bn people as a society based on maybe 100 people.

However, the ecological disaster there, particularly in deforestation/desertification is pretty much a given.  The Chinese are in deep shit.

Totally.  I guess I was bringing up their "green" practices as more of a "shame on the US" example than anything, just didn't (have no idea why) say that outright.  My bad.  I do agree with the above.

Except I'd like to add the qualifier THE WORLD is in deep shit.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

on that we are in complete agreement.

we're probably also in agreement that the Chinese being in deep shit means that everybody with arable land is also in deep shit.

Not really.

But expect the Chinese to pick a fight with every neighbor they have within the next 15 years.  Mostly, they'll be after Siberia and the Vietnam region.

[East Coast Hustle]

hell, they've been after Siberia for 15+ years. They're just biding their time. I believe they refer to it in internal memos as the "northern resource zone".

also,

ECH, you're calling on Rog and I to debunk something that's pretty well fucking known, sorry.  China is not a free republic, it's a tightly controlled fuckface of an economy.  Western business partners are given only as much leeway as what's necessary to take from them what China wants.  Are we pretending here that their business practices are equitable and so therefore their populace is allowed to live free and do as they please?

pretty sure that I never said that and that you may have missed my point.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

hell, they've been after Siberia for 15+ years. They're just biding their time. I believe they refer to it in internal memos as the "northern resource zone".

Yep.  Drives the Russians batshit.

[Cain]

Russia and China have put aside their differences for now, to try and drive US influence out of the region, in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Group.  Russia also has (generally) better ties with the Central Asian powers.

I'm pretty sure Russia are aware of this.  Their government may be mostly comprised of incompetents and drunks, but not idiots.  Russia has shown a willingness historically to inflict great damage on itself and use its strategic resources as political weapons.  I wonder if the Chinese wont simply settle for buying the goods (and oil, lets not forget) as it turns out to be cheaper than invading and occupying.  Companies are far more effective at seizing these things, and usually turn out to be more mutually beneficial.

Of course, it wont satisfy all their needs, but I'm sure China's neighbours will do a very convincing act to get the world to support their population, much as the USA did in the economic sphere with Bretton Woods.

I also have severe doubts about the Chinese military's experience.  At least Russia has fought some pretty nasty guerrilla wars, border disputes and peacekeeping missions in recent history.  The Chinese can field troops, and lots of them, and have fairly decent technical expertise, but, well, the same could be said of the USA in Iraq.  They haven't really be thrown in the deep end, and at least three superpowers have killed themselves off early by underestimating the Russian capacity for pain.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Russia and China have put aside their differences for now, to try and drive US influence out of the region, in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Group.  Russia also has (generally) better ties with the Central Asian powers.

Russia also has a history of making naive treaties, and then having to toss a few dozen million troops away to set things right.

[Cain]

True.  But this is Russia.  A few million troops can always be found.

I'd like to know how Russian-Japanese relations are going.  I know if I was in Moscow, I'd be making quiet noises towards getting Japan a bigger, better navy.  The Chinese are psychotically defensive of their eastern seaboard, so partnering up with Japan would be a smart move.

Hey, its why the US is trying to keep on good terms with them.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

True.  But this is Russia.  A few million troops can always be found.

China isn't any brighter than anyone else.  They'll make a grab for Siberia, just like we made a grab for Afghanistan.

[Cain]

But a lot depends on how secure things are internally, too.  If Xinjiang is up in arms, the monks are being a nusciance in Tibet, the nationalists are out on the streets and the Japanese are stalking from just off territorial waters then China might not have the will to act externally.

China's history is a whole lot of collapsing and civil war. A repeat cannot be ruled out, despite their best attempts at populating dissident zones with Han Chinese.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

But a lot depends on how secure things are internally, too.  If Xinjiang is up in arms, the monks are being a nusciance in Tibet, the nationalists are out on the streets and the Japanese are stalking from just off territorial waters then China might not have the will to act externally.

China's history is a whole lot of collapsing and civil war. A repeat cannot be ruled out, despite their best attempts at populating dissident zones with Han Chinese.

Actually, that sort of thing is what might lead them to adventurism, as a distraction and an excuse to clamp down, ala Argentina in the Falklands War.

[Cain]

It can do I agree, but not always.  State collapse before they can do anything about it is equally likely - half of China is still villages cut off from central government anyway.  It all depends on the particular context of the crisis.