Is America drifting towards political instability?

[Cain]

Just some out loud thinking here.

The election in 2008 was a massive rejection of the way Bush handled the country and ran things.  Yet only a year after Obama has been sworn in, voters seem to be rejecting his policies, with not only his popularity going down in the polls, but someone from the "vanquished" Republican party winning an election in a former liberal stronghold.

We can go into the whys and wherefores of that in more detail later, if we have to, but I think it is fair to say that these things contribute most to the President's decreasing popularity:

- the economic crisis, in particular favouritism towards Wall Street and the lack of jobs
- the unpopular war in Afghanistan
- the health care debacle

All of these things have been, of course, aided and abetted by the Democratic-controlled Congress, and for that, they will likely suffer in 2010's mid-term elections.  The Democratic majority could be weakened or even destroyed entirely due to this poor handling.  There are already whispers, tenative but worried ones, that Obama will be a one-term President and that either the party will throw him overboard or a Republican will win the election.

But then what?  Republican policies wont solve any of these problems, if anything they will almost certainly make them much worse.  With their purges almost complete, ideological conformity and groupthink are at an all time high, and there has been a pretty steep level of radicalization over the past year.  Things will continue to go to hell. 

Who will the voters turn to then?  Will they whiplash back to the Democrats?  Possible, but in such a short frame of time it seems unlikely.  Yes, they are turning towards the Republicans now, but if the Republicans get you into the mess, the Democrats fail to get you out of the mess and the Republicans fail to get you out of the mess as well...I think people will soon see this pattern.  Or maybe not.

It seems clear the system is broken, and horribly so.  The question is, who will take advantage of it? 

[Dimocritus]

I think the American people have short memories. "Hey, let's go this way! Wait, dead end. Let's go that way! Oops, that's a dead end too, shit, let's go the way we just came. Crap! A dead end!" repeat on infinite loop.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Actually, Cain, I think America is careening into political instability. 

I think we're going to see a lot of one-termers, in both the executive and the legislative branches, because political realities have ensured that our problems are unfixable.

Within 15 years, we'll have an autocrat, in name as well as in fact.

[Dysfunctional Cunt]

Actually, Cain, I think America is careening into political instability. 

I think we're going to see a lot of one-termers, in both the executive and the legislative branches, because political realities have ensured that our problems are unfixable.

Within 15 years, we'll have an autocrat, in name as well as in fact.

THIS!

[The Johnny]

Maybe im being hopeful... but MAYBE when it all starts going down the drain, people will react and will wish to do something.

Historically speaking, the moments of change and reform have been times of crisis (or the greedy upper middle class using low class discourse to gain their support and overthrowing the previous rulers)...

the problem i see would be "how low can you go?" which might indeed be a long ways from now 

[Jenne]

CA has a lot of one-timers or people who've not been in their state congressional seats for very long, and they really don't have much to do that improves CA.  They instead keep it in perpetual deadlock because of party affiliations, in order to appease voters and lobbyists alike.

And we all know what the state of CA is these days.

[Cain]

My thinking is that if the Teabaggers get organised, they may become a chief conduit for discontent to manifest.  Aside from that, the only institution in the US that seems to still be held in high regard is the military.

Either way, I would say: watch where the ex-soldiers go.  There are going to be a lot of unemployed troops (and a fair few mercenaries as well) and they are often the catalysts for instability, at least on a street level.

Also I agree Rog that there are going to be a LOT of one-termers in the near future.  Which will, of course, only compound the problem as each incumbent attempts to make the world fit into their neat ideological schema, then fails, only to be replaced by the next ideolgical fool who hasn't a clue how to fix the problems.  Sooner or later, something will give.

[Cain]

Incidentally, a friend emailed me this earlier today:

there's now a distinct possibility that crazy beats ineffectual, Obama's going to be a one term wonder and the world hating tendency clustered within the Republicans are going to have another crack at things. And that leaves the rest of the world with a couple of years to plan what's to be done about it.

So what is to be done? The power of the United States has always been a problem for much of the world whoever happens to be in charge. What the Bush administration revealed, and what the ongoing collapse of the Democrats confirms, was that "anti-Americanism" isn't just part of some wider counter-hegemonic project but an absolutely mainstream, commonsensical middle-wherever point of view that needs far more political representation than it actually gets. That, I suppose, is item one on the agenda.

You could argue that the US can be left to fail on its own. One of the interesting things about Bush time was the way in which various countries began to work around America so that less of their business was American business. And countries which seemed to provide an alternative to, or at least a few points of distinction from, the US model naturally tended to benefit as US power and prestige declined.

But I'm not sure you can just rely on that. Remember McCain's position over Georgia in 2008: that it should be incorporated as soon as possible into NATO, thus driving Western Europe towards a completely pointless war with Russia in support of Kartvelian irredentism. Obama's victory squashed that one, but in the US you have a country which remains central to the global economic system, has absolute military predominance and remains insistent on its right to lead. Yet half of that country's political establishment sees the rest of the world as either subordinates or enemies, and the half that thinks differently does not, on current evidence, seem to be able to govern effectively. America has to be managed down in some way that doesn't cause it to collapse on the rest of us. After all, that's what a lot of us thought that Obama was actually for. If he isn't up to the job, then it falls to others.

It's a huge job too: you're basically talking about ending the American role as the world's consumer of last resort and leading financier. You're talking about getting off the dollar standard and crippling America's ability to project power, while simultaneously planning and compensating for the consequences of all these things, quite a number of which will not be pleasant. It's difficult to know where to even start, but a start has to be made. President Palin and all that she implies has to be acknowledged, at the very least, as a contingency.

America's political instability will necessarily lead to international instability.  Also if American middle classes attempt to leave due to decreasing economic opportunities vis-a-vis the rest of the world, then depending on their political views, numbers, destination and events in the home country, could also help export instability.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

There is no politics in the US anymore... just the Big Show. Our Presidents and Senators and Teabaggers and Fellow Citizens are all just actors in one big ongoing television drama. We thrive on conflict, because thats what makes good drama. We live for the five minutes that 'Our Side' is winning and the next five minutes when 'our side' appears to have lost everything.

There's no real politics anymore. So many people don't know what they're voting for or what their political philosophy is or even if the stuff they spout has any basis in reality. I've heard a couple co-workers talk about going 'John Galt'. So I said, Oh, where are you moving to? Well, they weren't planning to move. So I said, what kind of business are you gonna run? But they weren't going to be self-employed. I asked what sort of food they were gonna grow and where they would hunt.... but they told me that they could go John Galt at home, employed here and shopping at the local grocery.  I pointed out that John Galt left behind all of the social services because he wanted complete personal freedom. They said "No it was because of high Taxes!" So I asked how they would refuse paying taxes if they worked here, where taxes are taken out automatically, if they drove on roads paid for by taxes, if the fire dept that showed up at their house was paid by taxes, and the ambulance that takes them to the hospital, and the school for their kids...

And the guy looked very upset and said "Well, what the fuck do you LIBERALS WANT? DO YOU WANT US TO JUST LEAVE AND GO FEND FOR OURSELVES?" and I said "Well, that's what 'going John Galt means'.

He hasn't spoken to me since... but he's still loudly taking about Mr. Galt to everyone else.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

And the guy looked very upset and said "Well, what the fuck do you LIBERALS WANT? DO YOU WANT US TO JUST LEAVE AND GO FEND FOR OURSELVES?" and I said "Well, that's what 'going John Galt means'.

He hasn't spoken to me since... but he's still loudly taking about Mr. Galt to everyone else.

Randites are funny.   

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

And the guy looked very upset and said "Well, what the fuck do you LIBERALS WANT? DO YOU WANT US TO JUST LEAVE AND GO FEND FOR OURSELVES?" and I said "Well, that's what 'going John Galt means'.

He hasn't spoken to me since... but he's still loudly taking about Mr. Galt to everyone else.

Randites are funny.   

I don't think he actually read the book... so he's just a FAUXite that heard his idols speak the words "Go John Galt"... at least a Randriod would know what the fuck they meant when the said it.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

And the guy looked very upset and said "Well, what the fuck do you LIBERALS WANT? DO YOU WANT US TO JUST LEAVE AND GO FEND FOR OURSELVES?" and I said "Well, that's what 'going John Galt means'.

He hasn't spoken to me since... but he's still loudly taking about Mr. Galt to everyone else.

Randites are funny.   

I don't think he actually read the book... so he's just a FAUXite that heard his idols speak the words "Go John Galt"... at least a Randriod would know what the fuck they meant when the said it.

Naw.  Randites don't actually READ Rand, they just pretend to in the coffee shop, while wondering why it isn't attracting their ideal woman.

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

And the guy looked very upset and said "Well, what the fuck do you LIBERALS WANT? DO YOU WANT US TO JUST LEAVE AND GO FEND FOR OURSELVES?" and I said "Well, that's what 'going John Galt means'.

He hasn't spoken to me since... but he's still loudly taking about Mr. Galt to everyone else.

Randites are funny.   

I don't think he actually read the book... so he's just a FAUXite that heard his idols speak the words "Go John Galt"... at least a Randriod would know what the fuck they meant when the said it.

Naw.  Randites don't actually READ Rand, they just pretend to in the coffee shop, while wondering why it isn't attracting their ideal woman.

So what about these spags that don't even own the book?   

After Greenspan said "uh, gee she was my mentor and her theories screwed the pooch" I thought we'd see less of her drivel. If her Number One star favorite Pupil can't make her theories work, who the fuck would?

[LMNO]

I shouldn't be surprised at how deeply entrenched the "quick fix" mentality has become.  Things got utterly fucked for 8-12 years, and because we didn't see a meteoric rise in the Dow after Obama was elected, now they want to dump him.

But not with any strong policy in mind; all I hear is the rhetoric of "smaller government, less taxes"-- as if anyone elected to a political seat would actually arrive with the intention of tearing down their own stronghold of power.

And if recent history (or, for that matter, history in general) is any indicator, the premise that with a smaller government, the market would govern itself through rational choices is BULLSHIT.  People do NOT behave rationally.  They are greedy, self-centered, and will trample their own grandmother in order to make a buck.

That being said, Obama isn't that much better as a president.  But he tried to introduce at least the appearance of soft power diplomacy, and attempted to strengthen the populus through healthcare.  One was a puppet show, the other was doomed for a want of testicular fortitude.  But I feel the need to respect him for almost trying.

[Jenne]

There's still politics, but the arena's gotten smaller.  It's all corporate assholes shooting each other in some high-tech OK Corral.  The kicker is that I really don't believe your average voter's any LESS in the know than the average American used to be.  And really that's just a matter of mathematics.  We have more information available, true, and it's very timely, but it's just as controlled as ever.

I like the fact the media's talking about Obama's failed promises, and I like the fact that there's a courtship between the Republicans and these Teabaggers (however unhealthy the people within the movement are, at least the Republicans have admitted their folly in the Bush era, though I disagree that they've "turned the page" on their excesses of the early 2000's like some asshole pundit said on NPR the other day).

It worries me that newspapers are deemed as failures (though they are still making profits after slashing their employee base so drastically), but given how much they are controlled by so few people, even though I'm not "calling time of death" on the art of journalism, I think the blogosphere has dumbed down the quality of info out there, since "everyone's an expert" now.

I'm babbling, I'll stop here.  But I do think politix are still alive and well.  I just think the scope has narrowed and broadened in ways that we're not taught in elementary school.