Linkup between Thai Redshirts and Muslim rebels?

[Cain]

I don't know how many people here know about the situation in Thailand, so here is a quick reminder:

in 2006, a military coup ousted the somewhat corrupt, but otherwise quite affable Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, replacing the Thai democracy with a military/aristocratic/state unionist government of a distinctly more authoritarian air.  Thaskin's supporters, as well as other enemies of the junta, have formed a (rather poorly named) umbrella group of protestors, unfortunately known as the Red Shirts, who have been involved in public displays and disruptions in hope of overthrowing the junta and restoring democracy.

Now the thing is, the Red Shirts put on a big display of force recently, and got beaten back fairly hard.  The Red Shirts have their own paramilitary arm, the "men in black", or even more poorly named Blackshirts, trained by veteran covert commander Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, who was unfortunately assassinated by suspected Thai security forces on May 13th this year.

The main support of for Thaskin's party, and so the Redshirts, is primarly rural based, as Thaskin was something of a populist, offering credit and greater power to impoverished Thai farmers, and it has been speculated that the Redshirts have abandoned Bangkok in order to take the countryside, and so surround the junta's lackies in the capital.

And, perhaps coincidenally, since May, the southern Thailand Muslim insurgency has woken up again, carrying out several minor bombings.  Now, the thing is, there were a lot of Southerners who supported the military dictatorship coming to power, but at the same time, southern Thailand is mostly rural and mostly opposed to whoever is in power in Bangkok, I'm wondering if perhaps some sort of deal has been struck.  Thaskin, while no angel, did attempt a more hearts and minds approach to the southern insurgency than the current government has.  Furthermore, the Men in Black are likely far better trained than the insurgents are, though of course the insurgency has been going on long enough to weed out anyone lacking the natural talent to be a guerrilla fighter.

This may not be happening, of course.  Coincidence is very likely, especially in a country whose politics and demographics I admit I do not fully understand.  But even if it has not, I still can't help but feel it is a possibility, a potential alliance waiting to be made there.

[LMNO]

I'm not sure if I understand the entire story, but if a pro-democracy rebel group teams up with pro-Islamic insurgents, how will we know who to bomb the shit out of when the US invariably invades?

[Cain]

Somewhat interestingly, the Thai insurgents are refusing help from international Islamists because, well, those guys are nutters and it seems the insurgency is smart enough to realize if it keeps the conflict local, yes it wont get delicious Jihadi money and support, but equally the Thai govt will look like idiots when they invariably run to America demanding money and arms to fight the Evil Islamist Menace.

I don't think Obama's administration actually like the current Thai government much, but I'm not sure.  I know when Clinton did her SE Asia tour after Obama took office, Thailand was definitely left out, for no apparent reason, a very strange thing given the normally strong and historical relations between the two countries.  But then again, it's not like the US has extended much grace to Thaksin either.  He requested asylum in the UK, which was rejected, and has instead taken his considerable wealth to certain tax havens of dubious standing, to continue the fight from there.  Of course, that all could be a purposeful move to make it look like western intelligence agencies aren't backing him, but I honestly don't believe the CIA or MI6 can come up with gambits that quickly and put them into play.