The Kaousuu Weather Network: Hurricane Earl

[Requia ☣]

the eye passed just to the north of STT and Tortola. Which is the only good news I can find as it means they were spared the northeast eyewall winds, which are always the worst. The real danger on STT (especially on the mountainous northside) isn't from the hurricane winds themselves, it's from the tornadoes that are sheared off and sent through the guts and valleys (you know, where people tend to build houses). All I know for now is that there are no communications with the island. Phone and internet are down and so is cell service. The last blog post I could find from anyone suggested that the storm was much more powerful than they were warned of, and that with the damage to the power infrastructure it would likely be months before electricity was fully restored. I don't get the impression that it's as bad as Hugo or Marilyn, but those were exceptional storms and even half of the damage that those caused would be alot of damage. It's not the states and doesn't have the resources of the states so even though on a personal level almost everyone is very aware of what's needed for hurricane preparedness, the infrastructure and resources to rebuild quickly just don't exist. Especially if there's damage to the airport and/or port facilities since everything has to be shipped in from elsewhere. If there is, again, a hint of good news it's that St. Croix seems to have escaped mostly untouched which means since they have a refinery that STT won't have to wait for gas to be shipped from the states. So people will at least be able to run their generators.

It really really bugs the shit out of me that this is happening in US territory and nobody in the media seems to be talking about it.

[Don Coyote]

Peoples homes < WTC drama

[East Coast Hustle]

It's because it jumped two categories before they had a chance to know it.

yeah, that's exactly what happened with marilyn (except that marilyn jumped from a 2 to a 5+ and nearly destroyed the island totally). Seems to be a running theme that the NHC is pretty useless as far as the northern leewards islands are concerned. Alot of people down there still blame them for most of the deaths that happened during marilyn.

[East Coast Hustle]

the eye passed just to the north of STT and Tortola. Which is the only good news I can find as it means they were spared the northeast eyewall winds, which are always the worst. The real danger on STT (especially on the mountainous northside) isn't from the hurricane winds themselves, it's from the tornadoes that are sheared off and sent through the guts and valleys (you know, where people tend to build houses). All I know for now is that there are no communications with the island. Phone and internet are down and so is cell service. The last blog post I could find from anyone suggested that the storm was much more powerful than they were warned of, and that with the damage to the power infrastructure it would likely be months before electricity was fully restored. I don't get the impression that it's as bad as Hugo or Marilyn, but those were exceptional storms and even half of the damage that those caused would be alot of damage. It's not the states and doesn't have the resources of the states so even though on a personal level almost everyone is very aware of what's needed for hurricane preparedness, the infrastructure and resources to rebuild quickly just don't exist. Especially if there's damage to the airport and/or port facilities since everything has to be shipped in from elsewhere. If there is, again, a hint of good news it's that St. Croix seems to have escaped mostly untouched which means since they have a refinery that STT won't have to wait for gas to be shipped from the states. So people will at least be able to run their generators.

It really really bugs the shit out of me that this is happening in US territory and nobody in the media seems to be talking about it.

Nobody on the mainland gives much of a shit about the VI until it's time to go on vacation. And frankly, nobody in the VI gives much of a shit about the mainland until it's time to pump some more money from the federal teat. it's America in name only. That said, with phones and internet down, there really isn't any way for anyone to hear about it at the moment.

[Suu]

The reason the NHS has a hard time with the Leewards is because of the water temp there. There is no technology that can tell you when and where storms will strengthen, just old tracks  and forecast models.

[Jenne]

Jesus fuck.  I hope your people stay safe, ECH.

And east coast spags--stay dry!

[East Coast Hustle]

The reason the NHS has a hard time with the Leewards is because of the water temp there. There is no technology that can tell you when and where storms will strengthen, just old tracks  and forecast models.

be that as it may, they seem to continually err on the the side of the lowest estimate. Which keeps getting people killed. If you're not sure if a storm is gonna be a cat 1 or cat 4 when it hits, seems to me like you should warn people to prepare for a cat 4.

I got a message on facebook a few minutes ago informing me that my family's house and those of my immediate relatives are still standing and still have their roofs. I imagine the fruit orchard is toast, but that's not as important as everyone being alive and having a house. I'm also told they're getting the worst of it right now so they're not out of the woods yet.

ETA: especially when the last major storm to hit that area jumped several categories in a very short time. It's inexcusable that they keep lowballing their estimates.

[Suu]

Meteorology is an inexact science. You never know how bad a storm is until it hits. Katrina is a fine example. What caused the levees to fail? The storm? Or old engineeing?

[East Coast Hustle]

if EVERY storm that's hit them in the last 20 years has been at least 2 categories higher than their forecast, there is NO excuse for them to keep lowballing their forecasts. Period. If they don't know and can't know, they have a duty to issue warnings that will prompt people to, you know, stay alive. If it was just one time, I'd understand but this is indicative of a failure in their system somewhere. You don't keep telling people to prepare for the lowest estimated strength of a storm when there's just as much chance that it will exceed the high estimate. Especially when peoples' lives are at stake.

[East Coast Hustle]

this may be stating the obvious, but this is a touchy subject for me. I had a childhood friend that died in Marilyn who would not have been where he was if the NHC had even warned of the possibility of a stronger storm. This would be a poor time to play devil's advocate strictly for the sake of argument.

[Suu]

I'm not playing devil's advocate. But if the USVI are as prone to getting borked reports from the NHS as you claim (nor do I doubt) then it's something the islanders need to take into their own hands and be crazy prepared ALL THE TIME.  Hurricanes are the hand of God. D/N/T.

[East Coast Hustle]

We're not talking about a hotbed of educated and rational people. While I agree with you in that sense, it's also still the NHC's responsibility to at least attempt to put people in a position to be properly CRAZY PREPARED. It's also very expensive to prepare for a cat 4 storm as opposed to a cat 1, and most people down there are dirt poor so if they think it's not going to be that bad they'd usually rather spend the money on food or rent. Not that I necessarily agree with that mentality, but that IS the mentality.

[Suu]

There in lies the prob. Either they underestimate the storm and no one is prepared, or they overestimate and people are out thousands.

[East Coast Hustle]

I still maintain that there's no reason for them not to err on the side of preserving life.

[ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞]

It's good to hear your family is OK.