A Very Short Introduction to Trying to Invade Iraq

[Cain]

It looks like you are trying to find a pretext to invade Iraq.  Have you considered instigating a military incident?
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http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/10/15/clinton_official_iraq_hugh_shelton

...one of the Cabinet members present leaned over to me and said, "Hugh, I know I shouldn't even be asking you this, but what we really need in order to go in and take out Saddam is a precipitous event — something that would make us look good in the eyes of the world. Could you have one of our U-2s fly low enough — and slow enough — so as to guarantee that Saddam could shoot it down?"
The hair on the back of my neck bristled, my teeth clenched, and my fists tightened. I was so mad I was about to explode. I looked across the table, thinking about the pilot in the U-2 and responded, "Of course we can ..." which prompted a big smile on the official's face.

"You can?" was the excited reply.

"Why, of course we can," I countered. "Just as soon as we get your ass qualified to fly it, I will have it flown just as low and slow as you want to go."

And from Kenneth Pollack's The Threatening Storm, the book which apparently convinced tons of Democrats to go to war in Iraq, despite them never actually reading it, and it being bullshit:

Assembling a [] coalition would be infinitely easier if the United States could point to a smoking gun with Iraqi fingerprints on it—some new Iraqi outrage that would serve to galvanize international opinion and create the pretext for an invasion... There are probably [] courses the United States could take that might prompt Saddam to make a foolish, aggressive move, that would then become the "smoking gun" justifying an invasion. An aggressive U.S. covert action campaign might provoke Saddam to retaliate overtly, providing a casus belli...Other means might also be devised.

Oh, and this

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/international/europe/27memo.html?pagewanted=print

During a private two-hour meeting in the Oval Office on Jan. 31, 2003, [Bush] made clear to Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain that he was determined to invade Iraq without the second resolution, or even if international arms inspectors failed to find unconventional weapons, said a confidential memo about the meeting written by Mr. Blair's top foreign policy adviser...
"The U.S. was thinking of flying U2 reconnaissance aircraft with fighter cover over Iraq, painted in U.N. colours," the memo says, attributing the idea to Mr. Bush. "If Saddam fired on them, he would be in breach."

And this

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article527701.ece

THE RAF and US aircraft doubled the rate at which they were dropping bombs on Iraq in 2002 in an attempt to provoke Saddam Hussein into giving the allies an excuse for war, new evidence has shown.

[Freeky]

 

[Iason Ouabache]

Doesn't surprise me, but I have to ask what was their reason for wanting to invade Iraq so badly? Was it just the oil? Strategic location? "Bringing them freedom"? Shit loads of money from profiteering? Or all of the above?

[Requia ☣]

There were a couple memos after 9/11, Bush wanted a second country to invade to demonstrate that America was going to be tough on countries that supported terrorism.  Rumsfield suggested Iraq.

[Cain]

My belief is any given foreign policy is accepted because there are a number of factions who can be sold on it, for various reasons, pushing it over a "policy threshold".  However, I also believe geopolitics and the Great Game in Central Asia also take precedence over almost all foreign policy objectives of the Great Powers.

Afghanistan and Iraq as US allies keep a lid on Iran (along with Azerbaijan), who have ambitions in Central Asia.  US military basing in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan (not currently present, but under discussion), Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan put the US in marching distance of most of the world's natural oil and gas supplies, as well as some hefty gold and other mineral deposits.  The Great Power that dominates Central Asia will likely dominate the globe in the later 21st century.

You can sell it to the liberals and feminists as humanitarian intervention, the more idealistic Neocons as a Democratic Crusade, to the security hawks with the (manufactured) terrorism and national security threat and to the corporate backers of the Republicans with bid-free contracts and a largely outsourced military.  But at the end of the day, hegemony is the shared interest of all of the USA's leaders and ruling class.

[Cainad (dec.)]

Afghanistan and Iraq as US allies keep a lid on Iran (along with Azerbaijan), who have ambitions in Central Asia.  US military basing in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan (not currently present, but under discussion), Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan put the US in marching distance of most of the world's natural oil and gas supplies, as well as some hefty gold and other mineral deposits.  The Great Power that dominates Central Asia will likely dominate the globe in the later 21st century.

My understanding is that Central Asia is home to some very substantial rare earth metal deposits which are not necessarily economically feasible for recovery yet, but as technology, infrastructure, and demand grows, may soon be.

My question is that if China currently holds the vast majority of recoverable reserves of rare eath metals, should we expect them to leverage their influence in order to maintain their economic lead in this area? What kind of influence could they wield over Central Asia?


(for those not in the know, "rare earth metals" are a group of metals with weird names like Scandium, Lanthanum, and Neodymium, which are critical components in a lot of modern technologies)

[Jenne]

Their influence, Cainad, is already there.  China owning most of the mineral mines currently underway is not advertised as often as it could be.  Mineral mines in a place like Afghanistan just makes it that much more of a pawn in the game of geopolitics.  Afghans are strangely suddenly PROUD that their country has some worth, somewhere along the lines, other than a place for various countries and their antagonists to duke it out.  Unfortunately, few are aware this puts them less in a position of power and more in a position of subjugation.

That particular "war" has yet to surface, but it's definitely a consideration as Pakistan and the US reposition themselves for the final stages of the "Afghan war" of the roses.

[the last yatto]

'You can sell it to the...'

Can't forget they "told" the pro-lifers, that Saddamn was tossing babies from hospitals into the streets

[Cainad (dec.)]

Their influence, Cainad, is already there.  China owning most of the mineral mines currently underway is not advertised as often as it could be.  Mineral mines in a place like Afghanistan just makes it that much more of a pawn in the game of geopolitics.  Afghans are strangely suddenly PROUD that their country has some worth, somewhere along the lines, other than a place for various countries and their antagonists to duke it out.  Unfortunately, few are aware this puts them less in a position of power and more in a position of subjugation.

That particular "war" has yet to surface, but it's definitely a consideration as Pakistan and the US reposition themselves for the final stages of the "Afghan war" of the roses.

This, I did not know. I was under the impression that China only owned the rare earth mines within its own borders. Thanks for the info.

[Jenne]

China has fingers in so many 3rd world commercial pies, it's a little disgusting...and awe-inspiring.  Check this shit out:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/29/us-ends-contracts-to-foreign-owned-firms/

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/21/chinese-companies-investment-africa

http://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/south-american-and-chinese-companies-ink-iron-farm_in-agreement-559284.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/15/brazil-port-china-drive

http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=ie7&q=chinese+companies+in+iraq&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&rlz=1I7SNNT_enUS376US376

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/01/AR2010070103406.html

...and on and on

[Iason Ouabache]

My belief is any given foreign policy is accepted because there are a number of factions who can be sold on it, for various reasons, pushing it over a "policy threshold".  However, I also believe geopolitics and the Great Game in Central Asia also take precedence over almost all foreign policy objectives of the Great Powers.

Afghanistan and Iraq as US allies keep a lid on Iran (along with Azerbaijan), who have ambitions in Central Asia.  US military basing in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan (not currently present, but under discussion), Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan put the US in marching distance of most of the world's natural oil and gas supplies, as well as some hefty gold and other mineral deposits.  The Great Power that dominates Central Asia will likely dominate the globe in the later 21st century.

You can sell it to the liberals and feminists as humanitarian intervention, the more idealistic Neocons as a Democratic Crusade, to the security hawks with the (manufactured) terrorism and national security threat and to the corporate backers of the Republicans with bid-free contracts and a largely outsourced military.  But at the end of the day, hegemony is the shared interest of all of the USA's leaders and ruling class.

Thank you. That cleared up a lot of questions for me.

[Cain]

Cainad, I believe Jenne answered the question effectively.  China, like the US, has a rapacious appetite for oil, and has made friends all over the world to ensure it has a large and continuing influx of the sweet black gold.  In the process of making these arrangements, it has also often made arrangements to own mines and manufacturing companies dealing with rarer materials as well.  In Africa especially, China have many friends, and plenty of money to throw around.

In Central Asia, China doesn't have much of a cultural pull, it's main assets are its economic and diplomatic ones.  China is rich and has pull in many international economic organizations.  Central Asia is poor (due to mismanagement and corruption) and does not.  There is also potential for clashing interests there though, as the Chinese are generally sticklers for efficient government, and, well...Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in particular are states run by the worst kind of gangsters.  Pretty much everyone who is rich in those two countries are either foreign investors or friends and family of the current leadership.  Uzbekistan also has a more or less intuitive understanding of it's geostrategic importance, which tends to lead Islam Karimov into performing spectacular backstabbing feats of international diplomacy with little provocation (such as in 2004).  Turkmenistan is neutral in world affairs though, and they have massive gas deposits, they would do business with China.

Allso, more interestingly, the Japanese have apparently found a way to produce rare and exotic metals in a lab.  It's a little more expensive than digging them out of the ground, but Japan has money to spare, and worries about international trade routes being blocked due to events in other parts of the world.  How China will factor that in will be very interesting.

Peleus, wasn't that the first Gulf War? Where they had the daughter of the Kuwaiti Ambassador appear before the US Senate in a live, televised hearing, only she claimed to be a nurse working at a Kuwaiti hospital who saw Iraqi troops "throwing babies out of incubators" and a whole load of other fallacious crap?  Or was there more propaganda along these lines for the 2003 war?  I must admit, with the material output of bullshit for the 2003 invasion, I could only really take notice of the most prominent ones (Niger documents, AQ links, WMDs, UN violations).

Iason, no problem.

[Cainad (dec.)]

Cainad, I believe Jenne answered the question effectively.  China, like the US, has a rapacious appetite for oil, and has made friends all over the world to ensure it has a large and continuing influx of the sweet black gold.  In the process of making these arrangements, it has also often made arrangements to own mines and manufacturing companies dealing with rarer materials as well.  In Africa especially, China have many friends, and plenty of money to throw around.

In Central Asia, China doesn't have much of a cultural pull, it's main assets are its economic and diplomatic ones.  China is rich and has pull in many international economic organizations.  Central Asia is poor (due to mismanagement and corruption) and does not.  There is also potential for clashing interests there though, as the Chinese are generally sticklers for efficient government, and, well...Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in particular are states run by the worst kind of gangsters.  Pretty much everyone who is rich in those two countries are either foreign investors or friends and family of the current leadership.  Uzbekistan also has a more or less intuitive understanding of it's geostrategic importance, which tends to lead Islam Karimov into performing spectacular backstabbing feats of international diplomacy with little provocation (such as in 2004).  Turkmenistan is neutral in world affairs though, and they have massive gas deposits, they would do business with China.

Allso, more interestingly, the Japanese have apparently found a way to produce rare and exotic metals in a lab.  It's a little more expensive than digging them out of the ground, but Japan has money to spare, and worries about international trade routes being blocked due to events in other parts of the world.  How China will factor that in will be very interesting.

Peleus, wasn't that the first Gulf War? Where they had the daughter of the Kuwaiti Ambassador appear before the US Senate in a live, televised hearing, only she claimed to be a nurse working at a Kuwaiti hospital who saw Iraqi troops "throwing babies out of incubators" and a whole load of other fallacious crap?  Or was there more propaganda along these lines for the 2003 war?  I must admit, with the material output of bullshit for the 2003 invasion, I could only really take notice of the most prominent ones (Niger documents, AQ links, WMDs, UN violations).

Iason, no problem.

Woah, got a link to some news about this?

This is all very interesting stuff on it's own, but I happen to be in a class for Energy and Mineral Resources and this would be a really great topic for a presentation I have to give.

[Cain]

My apologies, I misremembered.  Slightly less earth-shattering, but Japan has found a way to create automotive and home appliances without the use of exotic metals.

Which screws China over even more

http://blogs.forbes.com/jeremybogaisky/2010/09/09/eroding-chinas-grip-on-rare-earth-metals/?boxes=financechannelforbes

Japan's Nikkei business daily reports that Japanese manufacturers have developed technologies to make automotive and home appliance motors without rare earth metals. Hitachi has come up with a motor that uses a ferrite magnet made of the cheaper and more common ferric oxide. Meanwhile the chemicals conglomerate Teijin and Tohoku University have co-developed technology to make a powerful magnet using a new composite made of iron and nitrogen. (To read the story, you'll need a subscription to the Nikkei, which can be obtained here.)

The hard to procure metals, 17 in all, are vital for manufacturers, allowing for the production of the smaller, lighter motors and batteries that go into electric cars and handheld devices like cell phones. China produces over 90% of the world supply; in July it announced it would cut exports by 40%.

China and Japan are the biggest users of rare earth metals. China says the export reductions are meant to protect the environment (production is messy) and national security; the cynical explanation is that restricting supplies could help Chinese manufacturers climb the value chain and gain market share in more sophisticated products.

The restrictions have rung alarm bells in Tokyo as well as Washington, where the Department of Defense is studying the risks of reliance on China for materials that are widely used in weapons systems. The good news for the U.S. national security-wise is that Molycorp Minerals is set to reopen its Mountain Pass mine in California in 2012. At one point Mountain Pass produced a significant portion of the world's rare earth oxides, but cheaper Chinese production led to its closure in the mid-1980s. The bad news: According to a GAO report released in April, it would take 15 years to develop the processing infrastructure to reestablish a domestic supply chain.

[Golden Applesauce]

I was just going to say, if they had a controlled fusion process to produce specific rare-earth metals... then we'd have more important things to worry about than metal deposits.  Like, where in my backyard I should build that fusion plant.

Still, less wasteful manufacturing tech is always good news.

ETA: In the unlikely event that I have some spare time, is there a good book about Asian geopolitics I should read?