OFFICIAL 2010 BETTING BOOK Post odds for your state.

[Doktor Howl]

Arizona:

Governor - Brewer v Goddard 5:4, with even odds as a sporting proposition.  Note that Goddard is running for multiple offices, and is probably insane.

District 1 - Kirkpatrick v Gosar  3:1  Gosar is GOP, but identifies his political leanings as "dentist".
District 2 - Franks v Thrasher    4:1  Thrasher is a retired music professor runnning in district 2.  He will be beaten like a mule.
District 3 - Quayle v Hulberd     3:1  Dan Quayle's kid owns that shit.
District 4 - Pastor v Contreras   6:1  Silly Contreras, Tea Party is for white people
District 5 - Mitchell v Sweikert   2:3  Mitchell is taking his seat for granted, and the teabagger is going to kick his pasty ass.
District 6 - Flake v Schnieder    5:1  Schnieder is a librarian running in district 6.  Why even bother?
District 7 - Grijalva v McClung  10:1 with a bullet.  If 80%+ of your constituents are Hispanic, don't get on TV and jabber about SB1070.
District 8 - Giffords v Kelly        5:1  Easy money for Giffords.  If your constituents are all retired, don't jabber about killing SSI, Kelly.  Moron.

Senate:  - McCain v Glassman 5:2  McCain owns that seat until they carry him out feet first.

[Freeky]

As far as I can tell, those are spot on.

[Requia ☣]

I have no idea how to place the odds on this.  But given just how Red utah is, I can make fairly safe bets that Republicans win across the board in the major elections, except maybe in district 2 (Where one of the Blue Dogs is busy desperately clinging to his seat) and the governor seat, where we have an actual republicrat ticket, and more 'moderate' politicians have held that before the previous governor ran away to China.

[AFK]

I'm not good with the odds stuff either, but here is how I see Maine playing out:

First, neither of our Senators are up for re-election.  But I will wager that the chances are extremely good the Tea Baggers will run someone against Collins in 2012 because she is too moderate.

But, to the 2010 races. First our two House Reps

Michaud (D) the incumbent should beat his opponent (R) Levesque pretty handily.  Michaud (D) has Veterans behind him so that makes him pretty safe and protects him from any "swift-boating"

Pingree (D) the other House incumbent should also beat her opponent Scontras (R).  I think that one will be a little closer though.  The GOP and their PACs have been pouring money into the District to defeat her, but this is the District that contains Portland, which is a pretty liberal city, so I just don't see it happening.

And then the biggie, the Governors race.

Unfortunately, I think the Tea Party darling, Paul LePage is going to win.  He won't break 50% and get a majority.  Which means the majority of Maine voters will be voting against him.  But, they'll be splitting their votes mostly between the (D) Libby Mitchell and the (I) Eliot Cutler, who is a former (D).  It's the DEMs own fault for nominating Mitchell who is an awful candidate.  Her campaign is all over the place and anemic at best.  Same with Cutler.  He should've run his campaign on the Angus King model, who was our first Independent Governor.  He just doesn't have that skill set. 

So yeah, the next 4 years are going to suck mightly in Maine.  I'm glad my funding guarantees me a job at least until 2013. 

[Triple Zero]

My prediction: after Palin you will elect an openly homosexual president, who promises fix DADT and gay marriage, but to pass that bill he strikes a deal with the fundie Christian Republicans promoting abstinence and Big Pharma lobbyists that want to sell more HIV vaccins, and somehow he ends up banning condoms.

i dunno. that's all i got.

[Doktor Howl]

Russ Feingold is probably going to go down.  He's 7.5 votes behind.

The people of Wisconsin are really going to throw out the only senator to vote against the PATRIOT Act, in favor of that assbag teabagger Johnson.

[Iason Ouabache]

100% chance that I'll have a fucking lobbyist as my Senator for the next 6 years.   

[Doktor Howl]

I'm gonna make out like a fucking bandit.

[Doktor Howl]

ARRRGH!  I CAN SENSE DISTRICT 8 SLIPPING FROM MY GRASP!   

[tyrannosaurus vex]

I live in Wyoming.

That's all.

[AFK]

Well, in this instance, I hate being right.  It was pretty much how I called it.  The two DEM Reps won re-election.  The Governor's race was interesting and technically it is still too close to call but LePage is ahead at 38% and Cutler at 37%.  Cutler made a great, late surge in the polls.  But it was too late.  I think too may absentee ballots had already been cast back when people were still not sure about Cutler.  Had he been performing better, earlier, more of those ballots would've gone to him instead of the Democrat and I think we'd see him squeaking out a win. 

The 12% left are in rural districts where the GOP traditionally does very well.  I think it is a huge stretch that Cutler gets enough votes in those districts to pull out a win. 

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Arizona:

Governor - Brewer v Goddard 5:4, with even odds as a sporting proposition.  Note that Goddard is running for multiple offices, and is probably insane.

District 1 - Kirkpatrick v Gosar  3:1  Gosar is GOP, but identifies his political leanings as "dentist".
District 2 - Franks v Thrasher    4:1  Thrasher is a retired music professor runnning in district 2.  He will be beaten like a mule.
District 3 - Quayle v Hulberd     3:1  Dan Quayle's kid owns that shit.
District 4 - Pastor v Contreras   6:1  Silly Contreras, Tea Party is for white people
District 5 - Mitchell v Sweikert   2:3  Mitchell is taking his seat for granted, and the teabagger is going to kick his pasty ass.
District 6 - Flake v Schnieder    5:1  Schnieder is a librarian running in district 6.  Why even bother?
District 7 - Grijalva v McClung  10:1 with a bullet.  If 80%+ of your constituents are Hispanic, don't get on TV and jabber about SB1070.
District 8 - Giffords v Kelly        5:1  Easy money for Giffords.  If your constituents are all retired, don't jabber about killing SSI, Kelly.  Moron.

Senate:  - McCain v Glassman 5:2  McCain owns that seat until they carry him out feet first.

Grijalva and Giffords were announced victors today.

ALL of my predictions/bets panned out, except for the bolded one.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

I am pleased to say that I still don't know who my governor is. I am hoping to make it at least a full two weeks.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I am pleased to say that I still don't know who my governor is. I am hoping to make it at least a full two weeks.

I'm rolling in the long green, AND my state is run by maniacs with fetal alcohol syndrome.