Its all kicking off in downtown Cairo...

[Jenne]

Now.  Taking what we know about commodities futures speculators driving prices up such that it can incite violence in places of disparity and unrest...what kind of BACK ROOM DEAL or LACK THEREOF or even THREATS are said futures speculators MAKING when it comes to forging world history in real time?

THIS is what I've been thinking of since last week.

[Cain]

The revolution isn't over yet.

This was Tahrir Square, yesterday.

[Don Coyote]

What's you take on their upcoming election?

[Cain]

The former foreign minister is going to win.

He's kinda a shitbag, though not as big a one as, say, Murbarak.

[Cain]

Gosh, this seems awfully familiar:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20622233

The Egyptian army has deployed tanks and armoured troop carriers outside the presidential palace in Cairo after clashes between supporters and opponents of President Mohammed Morsi left five dead and hundreds injured.

But, despite their presence, there are reports of a fresh outbreak of stone-throwing between the two sides.

Egypt is seeing growing unrest over a controversial draft constitution.

The government insists that a referendum will go ahead this month.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo says the clashes are possibly the most dangerous development in Egypt's growing political crisis.

Our correspondent says the violence, which opposition leaders accused Mr Morsi's Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement of organising, was ominously reminiscent of the tactics used by former President Hosni Mubarak during the revolution.

Essentially, the Muslims Brotherhood seem to be overseeing some kind of legislative coup, allowing Morsi to rule the country with an iron fist.  Much in the manner of Egypt's former ruler.  Morsi is high on his sucess in Gaza, in more ways than one, and so decided to seize the moment for a massive power grab.

[Lenin McCarthy]

And the constitutional referendum will probably end in his favor even if it's not rigged. The opposition has a lot of support in the middle- and upper-classes, but as long as Morsi doesn't order the army to massacre protesters and the MB manages to sustain the narrative that the opposition are godless and un-Islamic, he'll have a huge part of the population behind him.

[Cain]

In any country like Egypt, the middle and upper class secular liberals are always small in number.  The political-economy of Egypt is such that you have a super-wealthy upper class, a small middle class of professionals (usually doctors and teachers) and then large numbers of landless former peasantry/urban workers.

The Egyptian Brotherhood message plays well with the last, but is surprisingly prevalent among the middle class too.  The MB advocates an updated and modern Islam (not the same as progressive or liberal, of course) which frequently plays well with technocratic types and certain middle class/educated groups.  After all, the core of Al-Qaeda came from Egypt, and many of them were University educated scientists of one sort or another.

I think where the Army falls on the issue will decide the factor.  They seem to be protecting the regime now...or holding it hostage, but my usual Egyptian sources are fairly quiet on what they think is happening, so I have no evidence to say they are leaning one way or another.

[Junkenstein]

Generally, I suspect most Egyptians are currently looking at each other and asking "Didn't we just do this shit?"

Any indication of outside interests Cain? Or is everyone busy looking at the chemical weapons in Syria?
This just in:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20629902

I swear there is a script that aspiring and ruling dictators have to read from now.