Its all kicking off in downtown Cairo...

[Cain]

From the Guardian's live blogging of events

Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters have clashed with police in Cairo in the largest demonstration in Egypt in a generation. Demonstrators want an end to the authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak's near 30 years of power.

• Police have responded with batons, water cannons and tear gas in a bid to quell the crowd. The demonstration, said to be inspired by the uprising in Tunisia, began peacefully before clashes occurred.

• As night falls in Egypt protests have also broken out in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria. Roads are also being blocked by demonstrators in the Sinai Peninsula, and large rallies are being reported across the Nile Delta and the Suez Canal region.

• US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said Mubarak's government is stable despite the demonstrations. Mubarak is an important US partner in the Middle East.

This is seriously interesting.  If Egypt has a revolution in the same way Tunisia did, this will have a dramatic effect on the "peace process", as well as US posture in the region.  This will be an upset for all established players in the area, make no mistake.

Also note: Twitter is not driving the revolution.  FFS.  Get over the social media fetish, people, it's a fucking tool.  Telegrams did not incite WWI and Twitter does not "cause" anything.

[Adios]

Been following this today. It's getting pretty serious.

And for the twitter comment.

[Cain]

I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though.  Tunisia was a rather unique case, in that the military had some well established links with the trade unions, and that the President there trusted his own private paramilitaries over the army.  Also, as a consequence of this, the military was rather underfunded, by regional standards.  As in all potential revolutionary situations, the key question is of military relationships to the revolutionaries versus the established government.

And I don't know enough about the Egyptian army to say one way or the other.

[Adios]

Situations like this are so touchy that an offhand comment from another country could cause a sway. Maybe by morning we can start to get a handle on which way this will play out.

[Requia ☣]

Assuming the revolution is pulled off, what are we looking at for Egypt's next government?

[Adios]

A house of cards.

[Cramulus]

Also note: Twitter is not driving the revolution.  FFS.  Get over the social media fetish, people, it's a fucking tool.  Telegrams did not incite WWI and Twitter does not "cause" anything.

permission to repost?

[Cain]

Sure

[Cain]

Assuming the revolution is pulled off, what are we looking at for Egypt's next government?

Depends on exactly how the revolutionary situation goes down.  So far, it looks like the protestors are inspired by the Tunisia example - they want rule of law, civil rights and an end to corruption.  The Muslim Brotherhood has not engaged in the protest in any kind of organized capacity (so far) but I do worry if mass violence breaks out - which seems likely, since Egypt now declared the protests illegal - their greater discipline and organization may allow them to push their way to the top.  About 20 years ago, the lower levels of the officer class of the Egyptian Army had a real problem with MB inspired infiltration of their ranks, but I don't know if that is still the case.

[Jenne]

Yeah, this is a very very interesting "domino effect" we're seeing around the world--might could have been started by such bloodier uprisings as Burma and Iran.

[Cramulus]

Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

[Adios]

Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Not in the slightest. There are many water tight assholes in the government as of right now.

[Jenne]

Well, I see why the US government has a stake in promoting the peace--they've been Mubarak's ally for ages.  So what Clinton's saying is, let's not all jump to conclusions, Folks, this might just be a "sign o' the times."  We were VERY cautious about assigning attributions of "hope vs. tyranny" etc with Tunisia until it was evident that things were turning a certain way.  I think Obama et al are just VERY fucking savvy when it comes to calling this shit, knowing as they do that the way the US reacts to these moments in history has ripple effects for generations all over the world.

Which is shady considering that there should be purer motives for speaking out or not, of course.  But such is the world of politics, I suppose.

[the last yatto]

Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Egypt is too important in the war on terror to risk. What's the likelyhood of american resources being used to kept them in power?

[Thurnez Isa]

I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though. 

I was wondering that too from the little bit of coverage I have seen. Only thing I could think at the time (and this is a very uninformed opinion) is maybe the government doesn't trust the military to stay loyal and not just take over via coup.