Its all kicking off in downtown Cairo...

[Iason Ouabache]

Well, this is interesting:

http://piratepad.net/ep/pad/view/ro.rQaXW6ia/latest

[Cramulus]

It's fascinating watching this unfold. I wonder what role social media is actually playing over there.

[Cain]

Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Shit no.  If the government isn't scared, why has the President's son and his family suddenly decided to take an unscheduled holiday in London?

[Cain]

I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though. 

I was wondering that too from the little bit of coverage I have seen. Only thing I could think at the time (and this is a very uninformed opinion) is maybe the government doesn't trust the military to stay loyal and not just take over via coup.

I'd be surprised, to be honest.  While leaders for the country have been drawn from the military, the Egyptian Army is one of the largest and best equipped in the region, with plenty of combat experience and does lots of training with NATO aligned countries.  While I could see it taking over to provide stability if the President fled, I don't necessarily see it moving to oust him.

[Requia ☣]

NPR is reporting the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to join in on the protests tomorrow.

Is this bad?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

[Cain]

NPR is reporting the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to join in on the protests tomorrow.

Is this bad?

Yup.  It means the Islamist movement is attempting to hijack the anti-corruption pro-civil rights demonstrations for their own ends.  It's rather like having Fred Phelps turn up to your anti-war rally in your support.

[Cain]

Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

Yep, several shootings and lots of beating for everyone.

Israel has, in a completely expected development, come down on the side of supporting the Egyptian government.  Meanwhile, someone in the State Department finally did something smart and got Clinton to issue a thinly veiled threat, suggesting Egypt reform very soon.

[Cain]

Reports on TV say that police in Alexandria are taking off their uniforms and joining the protestors.  At least two sources are reporting that right now.

It still hasn't been confirmed whether Murbarak gave the order for security forces to use live ammunition...in some ways I hope he did, because if not they're now completely out of control.  An opposition leader, Ayman Nour, is in ICU with a head injury, and Nobel Laureate Mohamed El Baradei was hit by a water cannon and then arrested.  Protests are erupting faster than security services can stop them.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

Yep, several shootings and lots of beating for everyone.

Israel has, in a completely expected development, come down on the side of supporting the Egyptian government.  Meanwhile, someone in the State Department finally did something smart and got Clinton to issue a thinly veiled threat, suggesting Egypt reform very soon.

If I were in the Sinai MFO right now, I'd be shitting bricks.  They don't get any weapons heavier than a machine gun (not even mortars), and there's only a brigade, stretched across the entire coast.

[Phox]

Reports on TV say that police in Alexandria are taking off their uniforms and joining the protestors.  At least two sources are reporting that right now.

It still hasn't been confirmed whether Murbarak gave the order for security forces to use live ammunition...in some ways I hope he did, because if not they're now completely out of control.  An opposition leader, Ayman Nour, is in ICU with a head injury, and Nobel Laureate Mohamed El Baradei was hit by a water cannon and then arrested.  Protests are erupting faster than security services can stop them.

Riots Intensify as Police Defect
Free Press GazetteAssociated Press
Civilian rioting in [Greece/Russia/YourMom] gains momentum amidst
increasing allegations of riot officers cooperating with the protesters.
Witnesses report several instances of officers assisting rioters or joining
the protests outright. Law enforcement agencies in the area have yet to
release an official statement.

I''m not sure I quite undestand what's going on, though. Or rather, I don't fully understand the significance and the likely resolution. Any chance that this could have a net positive outcome? Or is it more likely to get worse before it gets better?

[Cain]

There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

The North is where the Fijiians are, IIRC.  They take no shit.

IIRC, it's the Fijiian battalion in the North, the Columbians in the middle, Americans on the South.

[Cain]

I''m not sure I quite undestand what's going on, though. Or rather, I don't fully understand the significance and the likely resolution. Any chance that this could have a net positive outcome? Or is it more likely to get worse before it gets better?

They overthrew a US-backed dictator in Tunisia, so now the other countries with US backed dictators are wanting to have a go.  Egypt is more significant because it is a major Middle Eastern/North African power, and both Israel and the US have relied on it being a good partner to their regional goals since Sadat made peace.  Egypt also shares borders with the Occupied Territories, making it a player in that particular drama (they sealed their borders in 2009 to aid the Israeli Operation Cast Lead, for example).

If they succeed like the Tunisians did, I would consider that a brilliant outcome.  But the situation there is a lot more uncertain, because of Egypts size and strategic importance,

[Cain]

There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

The North is where the Fijiians are, IIRC.  They take no shit.

IIRC, it's the Fijiian battalion in the North, the Columbians in the middle, Americans on the South.

I can only hope the Egyptian protestors get no funny ideas about driving out foreign troops until they have their own army, then.