Unlimited MENA Revolt Thread

[Cain]

I think 1000 deaths per year of conflict makes it "offcial".

Lots of people want to see Syria go down, though.  Turkey is openly aiding the rebels.  The Gulf Co-operation Group want Assad gone, and so does Israel.  Syria's only "friends" are Iran and, er, North Korea.

[Placid Dingo]

And apart from Al Shabbat fucking off, what does Jordan want out of this?

<threadjack> (on a slight side note, Cain, did you hear about AS or people affiliated openly rocking up and offering aid packages (food, water, Korans etc) to the Syrians? </threadjack>

[LMNO]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15752058

Syrian army defectors have attacked a major military base near Damascus, Syrian opposition groups say.

Parts of the Air Force Intelligence building in Harasta were reported to have been destroyed in the attack, but there were no reports of casualties.

It would be the Free Syrian Army's most high-profile attack since Syria's anti-government protests began.

The attack comes as the Arab League prepares to discuss its response to the crackdown on the unrest in Syria.

The Syrian government has severely restricted access for foreign journalists, and reports of violence are extremely difficult to verify.

The UN says more than 3,500 people have died since protests started in March. The Syrian authorities blame the violence on armed gangs and militants.

Army defectors have carried out a number of attacks on military targets in recent weeks but the Harasta incident, if confirmed, would be their most audacious so far.

Such an attack would be significant because Syria's Air Force Intelligence is one of the most feared state agencies and has been involved in the suppression of protests against President Bashar al-Assad.

The base is also very close to the capital, which has remained relatively quiet in the unrest so far.

The closer Syria drifts to civil war, the more the calls for intervention will increase.

Would I be correct in assessing that, given what we know of history, intervening will most likely worsen the conflict and bloodshed?

[Placid Dingo]

Turkey, at least, thinks we're about to see a civil war;

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Turkey-Follows-Russia-Warns-of-Syrian-Civil-War-134106148.html

[Cain]

Oh, they're having another massive protest in Cairo, by the way.

Interesting fact: how the Army and Muslim Brotherhood seem to have cosied up against the more democratically inclined groups.

[Cramulus]

Oh, they're having another massive protest in Cairo, by the way.

Am I misremembering that you called this in the early days of Arab Spring? I recall us talking about how the Egyptian army had very adroitly positioned itself to be in a position of power post-revolution.

Now the Regime is over, but the oppression, "virginity tests", and police brutality have not stopped.

[Placid Dingo]

And Syria is officially in a civil war.

[Cain]

Well well well...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16395533

Four people have been killed and at least five injured in a firefight which erupted earlier in the centre of the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

The clash centred on an old intelligence building bombed by Nato in last year's uprising against ex-leader Muammar Gaddafi.

A brigade from the city of Misrata tried to free prisoners held inside, leading to a confrontation with another armed group from Tripoli.

The casualties were from both brigades.

The gunfight broke out near the building between Zawiya and Saidi streets.

The roads quickly reopened once the situation had calmed.

"I regret the incident. I don't want to go into details, but it was the result of a problem between Misrata thwars [revolutionaries] and members of the military council of Zawiya street," Abdul Hakim Belhaj, the head of the Tripoli military council, told a news conference.

"What happened is an irresponsible act and the situation is now under control. Since the afternoon, we have not heard any gunshots," he added.

It is yet another sign of the continuing security threat posed by the disparate militias comprising former rebels, says the BBC's Mark Lowen in Tripoli.

They still wield significant power in the absence of a national army or police.

Meanwhile, there are protests in Benghazi about how Gaddafi loyalists have survived the regime collapse and still wield considerable influence in government.  You may recall I suggested this possibility when I brought up how two of the major rebel leaders were former Gadaffi stooges themselves (any coup or rebellion where senior figures of the former regime play a significant role is automatically suspect...it is more likely than not you're witnessing one elite faction moving to oust another and using popular revolt as leverage for their position).

Also, so long as Abdul Hakim Belhaj is in such a prominent role in the military, the civilian government can never be fully secure.  In addition to his Islamist tendencies, he is a proven proxy of the Qatari government.  Any new Libyan government will be unable to forumulate policies which may damage Qatari interests in the country or region so long as Belhaj is breathing.  A competent leader would've arranged for him to have a tragic accident by now, but if the last year has proven anything, it is that the Libyan former rebels, military and regime defectors aside, are not very competent at all.

[LMNO]

I DEMAND A SIMPLE NARRATIVE!

[Cain]

The Dude: It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...
Donny: I am the walrus.
The Dude: You know what I'm trying to say...
Donny: I am the walrus.
Walter Sobchak: That fucking bitch...
The Dude: Oh yeah!
Donny: I am the walrus.
Walter Sobchak: Shut the fuck up, Donny! V.I. Lenin. Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov!
Donny: What the fuck is he talking about, Dude?

[Cain]

Egypt's Presidential election is a farce.

The vote is now between a former regime loyalist, and the Muslim Brotherhood.  And then this happened

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18245455

The Cairo campaign headquarters of Egyptian presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq has been attacked.

Egyptian TV broadcast footage of a fire at the building, in the Dokki district. The fire was put out with no signs of serious damage, and no injuries.

The attack came hours after it was announced that Mr Shafiq - The last PM of ex-President Hosni Mubarak - would compete in a run-off next month.

He will face Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Mursi in the election.

Either way, it seems the Army is controlling this game.

Crowds also headed to the city's central Tahrir Square, scene of the protests which forced the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 and frequent demonstrations ever since.

Several hundred people, perhaps as many as a thousand gathered in the roundabout at the centre of the square, protesting against the official election results, the BBC's Yolande Knell reports from the square.

Protests were also reported in Egypt's second city of Alexandria, where left-wing candidate Hamdeen Sabahi topped the poll in the first round of voting last week.

Earlier on Monday, Egypt's election commission confirmed that Mr Mursi had gained 24.3% of the vote in the first round, while Mr Shafiq won 23.3%.

However, there is real anger at the results among many activists, our correspondent says.

Many are saying that they are prepared to stay in the square and that this is the "last chance" to save Egypt's revolution.

Mr Shafiq is viewed by many as a representative of the old regime.

[Cain]

US Ambassador to Libya and three others assassinated in Benghazi.

Allegedly tempers are running high over an anti-Islamic film, made in the US, which has been causing some unrest in the Middle East recently.

However, Middle Eastern politics is like most politics elsewhere on this point.  People take to the streets, talk smack, and burn American flags.  They don't normally send a team of armed men to storm a US consulate and kill the Ambassador.

To me, this comes across as a highly targeted hit.  Taking out the Ambassador in Benghazi of all places is especially bad, since Benghazi is, of course, the birthplace of the TNC, who overthrew Gaddafi.  It looks like someone wanted to undermine the Americans and embarrass the existing government at the same time.

And, well, there are plenty of highly trained, Islamist militias who want to turn Libya from its more moderate course.

[LMNO]

Was it a window of opportunity, do you think?

"We'll wait until some American does something stupid, and under cover of the anger of the streets, take this guy out."

Or was it more coincidental, that the video just happened to come out on the day they were planning the attack?

Or, it was like, "Hey Sam*, check out this YouTube video some cracker in the US posted.  If we leak it, that'll give us cover."







*His name could have been Sam, or it could have been Omar, or it could have been Sally.  Who's to say?

[tyrannosaurus vex]

Apparently the shooting actually took place near a "safe house" where consular staff had been taken after the initial attack on the consulate. It was supposed to be a secret location, but a mob showed up with guns and started shooting.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Every cloud has a cloudy lining. The assassination has at least one Guardian blogger screeching for censorship.

To be fair the clip in question is so mind numbingly retarded that someone really ought to have been killed over it. Albeit on artistic, rather than religious grounds.