Unlimited Japan Tsunami and Godzilla Rising thread

[Jenne]

They're not in perfect shape, granted.  But like I said--I'm betting not on this taking them out of the game but perhaps giving them the push-pull to move forward.  Many say that's what WWII and its aftermath did for them through the 70's and into the 80's, when they hit the "high life."  There are worries (amongst those who care) that China's "rise" means the death  knell for innovators like the Japanese--but those "keerazy" Chinese have invested heavily in Japan's main industries (as far as Japan allows, of course).

I'm not going to pretend to know all the ins and outs of Japanese finance, security and industry.  I'm just going on history, their response to this monumental clusterfuck of epic proportions, and what I hear round town.  My gut just doesn't say this will end them as international contenders.  But I could be wrong.

[Cain]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/uk-japan-quake-economy-idUKLNE72E01D20110315

Japan's earthquake has left a gaping hole in the nation's power capacity that looks set to last months, threatening to make economic recovery far more feeble than hoped.

The first rolling power cuts in the history of the giant Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) have already closed many plants, with Toyota shutting down until at least Wednesday.

Rolling three-hour blackouts have wrecked the clockwork precision of Japan's railways while a thousand schools across Tokyo cancelled classes. Even Tokyo's ubiquitous neon signs have gone dark, a big blow to confidence in a country that lives by routine and order.

With a new explosion at a nuclear plant in Fukushima threatening a far more serious radiation leak, the power shortage will not get better anytime soon.

"It looks like Japan could be in a "power down" state for a protracted period," said Stephen Roberts, Nomura's chief economist for Australia. "That's what makes it different from other major quakes."

"People tend to compare it to Kobe and assume a "v"-shaped recovery, but Kobe never caused this level of power disruption," he added. "It means any proper recovery could be delayed right out to the fourth quarter."

...

There is certainly still plenty of unused manufacturing capacity in Japan, but far less when it comes to power supply.

Analysts at Australian investment bank Macquarie estimated the earthquake and resulting tsunami took a quarter of TEPCO's total capacity of 65 gigawatts, shared between nuclear and oil.

In all some 15 nuclear plants were shut down, and it was not clear how many would re-start or when.

"We think power supply shortages and rations are likely to continue in TEPCO's supply area for months rather than weeks," the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

And the growing crisis at the Fukushima plant brings into question Japan's whole experiment with nuclear power, which provides about one-third of total generating capacity.

...

Nomura's Stephens said there was perhaps scope to ramp up power output at some of Japan's oil and coal plants, though at great extra cost. Japan's increased demand for coal, oil and LNG for generation would also add to upward pressure on resource prices and so to inflation risks elsewhere in Asia.

But even then it was unlikely to be enough to make up the current shortfall in power.

"If this lasts to the summer, which is more than possible, there is no way the system could supply the power for air conditioning," he warned. "Tokyo in summer, without air con? Doesn't bear thinking about."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-supplychain-idUKTRE72E11Q20110315

Prices for key technology components extended gains on Tuesday, as damage at Japanese plants and infrastructure caused by Friday's devastating earthquake and tsunami threatens to disrupt the global manufacturing chain longer than many had expected.

Dozens of Japanese firms from component makers to electronics firms and automakers are keeping their plants shuttered, while damage to infrastructure including power, roads, rails and ports will take months to repair.

The prospect of prolonged supply disruptions sent global companies scrambling for alternative sources of high-tech components in particular, a sector where Japan is still a dominant player.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-tokyo-idUKTRE72E0ZR20110315

Panic swept Tokyo on Tuesday after a rise in radioactive levels around an earthquake-hit nuclear power plant north of the city, causing some to leave the capital and others to stock up on food and supplies.

Several embassies advised staff and citizens to leave affected areas, tourists cut short vacations and multinational companies either urged staff to leave or said they were considering plans to move outside Tokyo where low levels of radiation have been detected.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/japan-quake-markets-idUSL3E7EF0US20110315

Japanese stocks plunged 10.6 percent on Tuesday, posting the worst two-day losing streak since 1987, on reports of rising radiation near Tokyo, suggesting any deterioration at a quake-hit nuclear plant could trigger more panic selling led by hedge funds.

The yen tripped on talk of intervention and bond yields rose as investors sold debt to offset losses in the stock market. The scale and speed of the equity selloff, on record volume for a second day running, forced fund managers to sit on the sidelines.

"Even if we wanted to sell today there was very little we could do," said a fund manager at a Japanese fund, asking not to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

"We didn't sell and waited sidelined because hedge funds were just dumping stocks in panic."

At one point the broader Nikkei plunged 14 percent after Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the risk of nuclear contamination was rising at the Fukushima Daiichi complex on Japan's ravaged northeastern coast, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

Equity futures fell and the yen rallied as risky assets were dumped. The yen steadied soon after, raising suspicion that authorities had intervened. The Ministry of Finance declined to comment on intervention.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/uk-private-jets-in-hot-demand-as-japan-e-idUKLNE72F04020110316

Thousands of people desperate to escape Japan's deepening nuclear crisis have inundated private jet companies with requests for evacuation flights, sending prices surging as much as a quarter.

Some multinational companies are pulling international staff out of Tokyo and surrounding areas after low-level radiation reached the metropolis on Tuesday.

Workers are fleeing for Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and as far afield as Australia and the United States as power outages and shortages of basic supplies compound the misery after Friday's 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

"I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong, 5 hour 5 minutes trip. They did not care about price. The charge inflated by 26 percent to more than $160,000," said Jackie Wu, COO of Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China's HNA Group.

"Yesterday, a charter plane from Tokyo to Australia one way, was quoted at $265,000, up 20 percent," Wu added.

Shortages of jet fuel and airport closures were complicating matters in Japan.

Mike Walsh, the CEO of private jet and charter company Asia Jet, said they had run three evacuation flights to Hong Kong from Tokyo by early Wednesday.

"It is now ramping up over last night because of the deteriorating situation. More people are worrying and looking to evacuate from Tokyo," Walsh told Reuters. "We are dealing with over 1,000 people wanting to evacuate from Tokyo this morning."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/uk-foreign-bankers-flee-tokyo-idUKLNE72F04720110316

Foreign bankers are fleeing Tokyo as Japan's nuclear crisis worsens, scrambling for commercial and charter flights out of the country and into other major cities in the region.

BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) were among the banks whose staff have left since Friday's earthquake and tsunami, and now a nuclear plant disaster, according to industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Expatriate staff at most foreign banks in Tokyo make up a small portion of the total, by some estimates less than 10 percent. But many are often in senior positions so their departure can have a significant impact.

And while Japan's investment banking market is famously tough, it's an essential place for large banks to be and can produce hefty fees.

"The foreign banker presence on the ground in Tokyo now is very thin and depending on how long it takes them to return there could be lasting implications of that," said one banker. "Every time there's a washout of foreigners in Japan they never quite return in the same numbers."

With bankers joining the growing exodus, private jet operators reported a surge in demand for evacuation flights which sent prices surging as much as a quarter. One jet operator said the cost of flying 14 people to Hong Kong from Tokyo was more than $160,000.

"I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong, 5 hour 5 minutes trip. They did not care about price," said Jackie Wu, COO of Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China's HNA Group.

[Telarus]

 

[Jasper]

Lovely.

[Jenne]

I admit shit's bad.  Badwrong bad.  Epic, all-they-need-now-is-Godzilla-to-make-it-perfect bad.  (some might even say 2012 doomsday shit is just having a try out on Japan...??)

I just don't KNOW, this early on, if a rebound is out of the picture.  Sometimes, out of GREAT chaos, comes some semblance of fuck-yeah! order...I know, I'm hopelessly, foolishly, optimistic.

[Dysnomia]

So...um....the radiation smoke plume is apparently traveling across the Pacific towards the US.  Fun.

[Freeky]

I'm keeping the monkey inside all week, though I don't know if the danger will be passed next week when he's over at the ex's, or even if I can trust whoever he's gotten to watch the kids to keep him in if it isn't.

[Cain]

Walking out in the smog is going to do more long term harm to a kid than a radioactive cloud from the other side of the pacific.

[Freeky]

Possibly, but we don't have much smog here, anyway. Just dried coyote and meth head poomp.

[Dysnomia]

All they've recommended we do is change/wash our clothes if we have to go outside (like I will have to do a lot...awesome), and take a shower.  It's just  a bit unnerving anyways. 

[LMNO]

Take a shower?


Santa Cruz is fucked.

[Dysnomia]

I know...those poor bastards already had their yachts capsized.  THE HORROR   


seriously though, it's probably not that much worse than getting an xray...

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I know...those poor bastards already had their yachts capsized.  THE HORROR   


seriously though, it's probably not that much worse than getting an xray...

A hell of a lot less, actually.

[Dysnomia]

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE   

[Luna]

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE   

Pretty much certainly, sooner or later.