HA HA! Fooled you again!

[Cain]

So, the UN passed a resolution giving "the international community" broad powers (everything short of permament occupation) to deal with the Libyan government.

Meanwhile, it turns out Benghazi, home of the Libyan revolution, is where up to 81% of all Libyan foreign fighters in Iraq hailed from.  And Libya sent twice as many foreign fighters to Iraq as any other country in the Middle East or North Africa.

Not exactly fighting for whisky, sexy, democracy in other words.

So far, it seems Gadaffi has done the sensible thing and halted his offensive.  Which has completely and utterly fucked the "international community", who were not expecting such a response.

Meanwhile, certain questions remain unanswered.  Questions like "what are our strategic objectives in imposting a no-fly zone over Libya, and what happens if those objectives are not met"?  Or indeed "who is paying for all this"? 

Just remember, it took over a decade of sanctions and a no-fly zone, after a crushing military defeat, to curb Saddam's appetite for expansionism, and a second military mission was required to overthrow him.  Gadaffi may be just as tough as the Tyrant of Baghdad to remove.

And in the meantime, you can kiss goodbye to any focus on jobs, domestic reconstruction, deficits and the like.

[Cain]

As an aside, between this and a friend's 25th birthday party, I am going to get royally pissed tonight, and possibly troll the UN's phoneline while drunk.

[Disco Pickle]

As an aside, between this and a friend's 25th birthday party, I am going to get royally pissed tonight, and possibly troll the UN's phoneline while drunk.

any chance you have the ability to record that?

[LMNO]

I would love to listen in on that.

[Cain]

Unfortunately no, it's happening at her place.

However, I will be able to sing kareoke down the line at them.

[Juana]

That's a wonderful idea.

[Jasper]

Ahhhh crap.  More war.  Always more war.

[Cain]

Some more thoughts:

1) looking at it, the provisions for military action are actually fairly stringent about what can and cannot be done in Libya.  This means if a ground invasion is wanted, it will take another UN resolution.

2) It seems that a resolution was passed before the UK, USA or France was actually ready to act.  As such, Gadaffi is now mowing down rebels, suspected insurgents and anyone in the wrong place at the wrong time at an increasingly fast pace.

3) If Gadaffi holds Benghazi and manages to move up along the coast, by the time the no fly zone is put in place, there may be no more rebels left to protect.  Especially since a second resolution would take time to secure.

4) If the assassination of Gadaffi is sanctioned and the rebels are already wiped out, you have a perfect recipe for the Afghanistanization of Libya - warlords running around the place, doing a lot of whatever the fuck they want, no-one with enough power to enforce order on the entire country and probably a situation which terrorist groups in the region would be interested in exploiting.

5)  Apparently we're all called "the coalition of the willing".  Again.

6)  Bahrain is entirely different from all this, because David Cameron said so.

7)  I think Russia and China have finally realised the quickest way to wear down the United States is to indulge in its foolish taste for intervention, and that - apart from a few quibbles they also have with Gadaffi - is why they stood aside and allowed the no-fly zone to be put in place.

[maphdet]

How long the airborne attacks will continue is uncertain. Leaders of the countries involved are clearly hoping to avoid being embroiled in a long-running and resource intensive campaign. Joshi points out: "How long can we stay there? Can we keep Typhoons in southern Europe for the next 10 years? Can we keep a no-fly zone in place, like over Iraq, for 12 years? The political decisions are not in place for that."

But the military campaign in Libya has begun and there is no turning back now. The west is once again at war in the Middle East

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/19/operation-odyssey-dawn-tomahawks-libya

Why The Fuck Does Shit Like This Always Happen?

[Cain]

The Arab League (Gulf Cooperation Group aside) have it made it very clear they do not want a lot of US involvement in this, and especially not at the pointy end of business.  However, US "public" opinion will probably urge for greater US involvement, as everything ultimately revolves around the USA in this viewpoint and if the USA is a spectator this will make those who form opinion sad pandas.  Emmanuel Todd is proven right yet again.

9) What happens if Gadaffi falls back and the rebels advance?  No-one seems to have thought this far ahead.  The Responsibility to Protect applies to all civilians, and from all armed parties.  If the rebels start killing civilian Gadaffi supporters, as they probably will do (lets not fool ourselves here, this is now an armed uprising, not Egypt), will we start bombing them?

10) And what happens if the rebels start fighting each other, should we look to be in an endgame situation?  We don't know who we're really dealing with, what factions are involved in this fight and what their overall aims are.  Especially since the last time someone tried to send in intelligence officers, they got captured by farm hands.

11) There is a lot of talk about this enshrining the R2P without all of the nastiness and manipulation associated with Bush and the Neocon abuse of the term, but at the same time we've thrown Yemeni, Bahrainian and Saudi protestors under the bus in order to do it.  So, uh, yeah.  If we were really concerned about brutality and violence in Africa, wouldn't we start with the Congo conflict, the world's largest ongoing war?  Or even the Ivory Coast, where the democratically elected President is holed up in Abobo district while the former President shells civilians and refuses to step down.  There may be actually a case where the Neoconservatives have a point about military force, in that latter scenario.

12)  Turns out on Tuesday Gadaffi kicked out all of the Western oil companies, except those belonging to Germany, as the Germans had expressed doubts about the efficiency of a no-fly zone.  Admittedly, there was a lot of talk about the no-fly zone before that even happened but still, it doesn't look good, which is probably exactly why Gadaffi did it.

12a) both Gadaffi supporters and the rebels will have good reasons to blow up oil pipelines, as a form of economic warfare.  Oil pipelines in Libya run over large distances and are not well protected, with both sides having some within their own territory and others not.  Expect oil prices to rise, massively.

13)  Gadaffi is an old pro at terrorism.  Both at home and abroad.  If he gets the upper hand at home, expect revenge attacks abroad.  And since everyone has been ignoring Libya as a potential source of terrorism for about 20 years...

[Prince Glittersnatch III]

9) What happens if Gadaffi falls back and the rebels advance?  No-one seems to have thought this far ahead.  The Responsibility to Protect applies to all civilians, and from all armed parties.  If the rebels start killing civilian Gadaffi supporters, as they probably will do (lets not fool ourselves here, this is now an armed uprising, not Egypt), will we start bombing them?

Would they really be stupid enough to do this?

[Don Coyote]

9) What happens if Gadaffi falls back and the rebels advance?  No-one seems to have thought this far ahead.  The Responsibility to Protect applies to all civilians, and from all armed parties.  If the rebels start killing civilian Gadaffi supporters, as they probably will do (lets not fool ourselves here, this is now an armed uprising, not Egypt), will we start bombing them?

Would they really be stupid enough to do this?

Very very possibly

[Requia ☣]

Never ever ever assume a large group of people aren't dumb enough to do something.  You will get caught with your pants down every time.

[Da6s]

Like Uday and Qusay before him, Gaddafi's kid just ate it:

http://twitter.com/ShababLibya/statuses/49622494138736640

BREAKING: It has been confirmed by a few sources and now also Al Manara, Khamis Gaddafi has died today, as a result of burns #Libya #Feb17

[Nast]

Ouch, what a terrible way to die. D: