OK, so Libya vindicates the "Afghan model" of warfare*

[Cain]

I would say I'm shocked only, y'know, I'm not.

Some of Gaddafi's family have turned up in Algeria.  Not the hardcore members, Khamis or the security chief one, but the more in the background ones.  Algeria has been quite sympathetic to Gaddafi, so this is not surprising.

On the other hand, the NTC have declared habouring Gaddafi's family is "an act of aggression".  So there could, potentially, be a future Algerian-Libyan war.

Also, the UN plan for Libya has been leaked.  What is prominent is what is lacking: any input from the Libyan government or people. 

[Doktor Howl]

On the other hand, the NTC have declared habouring Gaddafi's family is "an act of aggression".  So there could, potentially, be a future Algerian-Libyan war.

Annnnnnnd, once again, humans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

"We could either build a nation, or spend what little we have in a nice war.  Think, think, think."

[Cain]

I've always felt North Africa needed another big fucking land war.  Especially between a crazy authoritarian, quasi-military dictatorship which hates radical Muslims, and democratic rebels who came to power aided by radical Muslims.

So far, the NTC have said they will pursue all legal means to have the Gaddafi's extradited.  It's unclear under what charges, however, and it's not clear that certain Western powers are actually keen on the idea either, given that they want the Gaddafi's in the Hague rather than executed by the NTC (though I'm sure a certain faction of businessmen and political leaders, who aided Libya's "rehabilitation" would quite like the entire family to turn up dead, before they start spilling more uncomfortable secrets).

I don't see Algeria responding well to these requests.  I suspect the word "sovereignty" will be bandied around a lot, with an underlying tone of "and so you can fuck right off".  I suspect that tone will be noted in Benghazi and Tripoli, and a bunched of rebel soldiers, riding high on victory, might just decide an escalatory response is within their abilities.

Maybe not.  From the sound of it, the UN plan for the country has the place locked up pretty tight for the next year, minimum.  On the other hand, as Joe Stalin would no doubt say "the UN?  How many divisions does Ban-ki Moon have?"  NATO probably don't want a fight either, but NATO is becoming more retarded and less predictable as the years go by, and as the Gaddafi example shows (and the Iraq one), they will not necessarily decline to act against a leader because they are anti-Islamicist.

[Cain]

Gaddafi loyalists have crossed the border into Niger.  The NTC reports the convy was carrying gold and cash. 

Just yesterday, the NTC reported that they knew the whereabouts of Gaddafi.  Coincidence?  Maybe.

Officials from the NTC said the convoy set out from the Gaddafi-held town of Jufra.

"Late last night [Monday], 10 vehicles carrying gold, euros and dollars crossed from Jufra into Niger with the help of Tuaregs from the Niger tribe," Fathi Baja from the NTC told Reuters.

These claims have not been independently verified.

The BBC's Kevin Connolly, in the Libyan capital Tripoli, says there is speculation that the convoy could be carrying members of Col Gaddafi's entourage, as the desert route is the likeliest way for them to escape troops loyal to the NTC.

Many Tuareg former rebels from Mali and Niger were trained in Libya in the 1970s and 80s.

Col Gaddafi helped broker a peace accord in 2009 between the government of Niger and a Tuareg rebel group led by Rissa ag Boula, who then took refuge in Libya.

Multiple witnesses reported seeing Rissa ag Boula on the convoy, but he denied the reports, telling AFP: "I'm in [Niger's capital] Niamey."

The NTC spokesman in London, Guma el-Gamaty, told the BBC that Niger would be penalised if it was proven to have helped Col Gaddafi escape.

"Niger is a neighbour of Libya from the south and should be considering the future relationship with Libya," Mr Gamaty said. "This - if confirmed - will very much antagonise any future relationship between Libya and Niger."

Niger's foreign minister said Col Gaddafi was not in the convoy.

"This is not Gaddafi and I do not think the convoy had the numbers attributed to it," Mohamed Bazoum was quoted as saying by AFP.

Col Gaddafi's wife, two of his sons and his daughter have already fled to Algeria.

The BBC's Jon Leyne, in Benghazi, the seat of the transitional authorities, says such a large convoy could not have crossed the desert without Nato turning a blind eye.

Nato does not comment on intelligence matters, a spokesman told the BBC.

Col Roland Lavoie said the alliance's mission was to protect civilians, not to track "fleeing former regime leaders, mercenaries, military commanders and internally displaced people".

All sounds a little odd.  Especially since NATO were looking to overthrow Gaddafi from the start, and the recent revelations that MI6 and the CIA renditioned suspects to Libya for torture, and possibly spied on Libyan dissidents for Gaddafi.

Lavoie's such a blatant liar. 

[Adios]

I read about the CIA in Libya, it came as no surprise at all.

[Cain]

Was Gulf Co-operation Group support the deciding factor in Libya?  Well, maybe

Asia Times Online writer Peter Lee has this to say at his personal blog:

The claim that fealty to Western neo-liberalism is the key to global peace and prosperity looks increasingly threadbare. Nevertheless, the undeniable attractiveness—and political corrosiveness—of democratic ideals to the societies of the authoritarian regimes holds out the hope that Western values will prevail even as the Western nation-states forged in the 19th and 20th century crumble under the assaults of globalization, increasingly mobile capital, and disengaged elites.

Therefore, as the US and European economies struggle with anemic economic growth and political gridlock, it is desperately important for proponents of both Western hegemony and liberal democracy to assert that We Did the Right Thing in Libya.

Of course, we didn't do the Right Thing in Libya, as Alexander Cockburn's stable of correspondents have been pointing out indefatigably in the pages of Counterpunch.

The Western and Gulf powers illegally provided military support for a hodgepodge of anti-Gaddafi forces under cover of a UN resolution to "protect civilians".

The whole enterprise seemed doomed to an embarrassing collapse and negotiated settlement at the beginning of August.

However, it appears that an as yet underappreciated factor in Gaddafi's fall was the implacable hatred of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE for the Libyan autocrat—and their willingness to act on that hatred beyond their rather symbolic support of the NATO air war.

As the Benghazi-based TNC flailed away in eastern Libya, the "Tripoli Brigade" under Abdelkarim Belhadj drove on Tripoli and occupied it end-August, aided by the timely defection of a Gaddafi brigade commander, Barani Eshkal, and the surrender of his Mohammed Megrayef Brigade, which had been entrusted with the defense of the capital.

Belhadj, a militant Islamist, one-time leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, and reputed friend of al Qaeda, had been captured by the US in 2004 and tortured in a black prison in Thailand before being handed over to Gaddafi.

In what was not an example of Saif Gaddafi's best work, at least in retrospect, Belhadj was released in 2010 as part of an effort to defang and integrate Islamists into the Gaddafian Libyan order.

The obvious inference would appear to be that Belhadj was assisted by the Arab Gulf states in 2011 out of sympathy for his militant Sunni leanings, and to rescue the Libyan adventure from Western blundering.

Indeed, an al Jazeera video from June 6 preserved on Youtube features attendance by correspondent James Bays at an orchestrated display of Tripoli Brigade will and martial prowess and included the declaration that new weapons provided by the UAE and Qatar "would soon arrive"-- seemingly illegal support at that stage of the "civilian protection" effort.

It is also not impossible that Gulf gold was deployed to arrange the timely surrender of the Mohammed Megrayef Brigade, or that the torture and murder of the chief rebel commander (and suspected accommodationist) Abdel Fateh Younes, represented the determination of Gulf-backed Islamist forces to take the bit in their teeth put an end to the dilatory phony war conducted out of Benghazi.

Given the instinctive discretion of the Gulf States and the almost hysterical need of the Western powers to claim credit for the collapse of Gaddafi's regime, it will be interesting to see when and if the full story of the role of Islamists and the Sunni Gulf autocracies ever comes out.

In any case, don't expect to see a lot of think pieces about the fall of Gaddafi as a victory for the forces of the conservative Sunni counter-revolution in your hometown paper.

[Cain]

A cache of Russian-made surface-to-air missiles has vanished from an arms depot in Tripoli, according to ITN News.

The missiles can take down aircraft from 1100 feet off the ground, and were found missing as rebel troops secured the city from Gaddafi loyalists.  Of course, these are the same troops who, according to Peter Lee above, are loyal to an Al-Qaeda linked Islamist militant, so...

[Lenin McCarthy]

Just read this on the Al Jazeera live blog.

AFP - At least 12 people were killed and many more wounded when two groups of fighters opposed to Muammar Gaddafi turned on each other in Libya's west, two officials told the AFP news agency on Sunday.

The fighting, which has its roots in ancient rivalries and pitted combatants from the towns of Gharyan and Kikla on the one side and from Asabah on the other, broke out on Saturday, according to the chief of the Gharyan council and confirmed by the head of the military council of Asabah.

The towns are on the eastern edge of the Nafusa mountains and were important centres of resistance to Gaddafi's forces in months of fighting to oust the strongman.

Well this looks promising.

[Cain]

I have to say, I'm automatically suspicious of the "ancient rivalries" reason given, for, well anything, pretty much.  I suspect there was something else going on, rivalries between commanders, a cache of arms or gold one side was refusing to give up, a high priority prisoner...

Either way, it's not good, no.  Though I've been surprised by the generally good conduct of the TNC rebels, black Africans being murdered and stuffing Gaddafi loyalists in political prisons nonwithstanding.  It could be ideological differences are also coming to the forefront, between the more democratic TNC and their Islamist allies.

[Cain]

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09/has-the-libyan-insurgency-begun/

The world has declared victory over Moammar Gadhafi. Only no one told Gadhafi he was defeated. Stop me if you've heard this one before.

Fighters loyal to Gadhafi killed 17 guards at an oil refinery near Ras Lunuf on Monday. They drove to the refinery in a convoy of more than a dozen vehicles. Witnesses reported that the attackers used hand grenades to kill the guards.

And the attack occurred less than two hours after Libya's post-Gadhafi oil minister announced limited oil production had resumed. The refinery itself was undamaged, though it's unclear if that's by design or incompetence. Still, the message sent seems clear: Gadhafi loyalists will target the revolutionary government's ability to exploit the sources of Libyan wealth, weakening its ability to stabilize the country. Then, presumably, comes the restoration.

That last part may be unrealistic, given how deeply Gadhafi is hated in Libya. But in the near term, all that Team Gadhafi needs to do is distance the people from the Transitional National Council. And the revolutionaries may not make that difficult.

Rebel fighters are torching houses and conducting revenge killings in the loyalist town of Tawergha. Council Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril shrugged when asked about the offensive, pleading that there's nothing he can do. There's a racial element to the revenge, the Wall Street Journal reports: "On the gates of many vandalized homes in the country's only coastal city dominated by dark-skinned people, light-skinned rebels scrawled the words 'slaves' and 'negroes.'"

The revolutionaries managed to drive Gadhafi out of Tripoli thanks to on-the-ground training by Qatari Special Forces. Those western Libyan fighters — the same who are attacking Tawergha — are more effective fighters than the ragtag, DIY army assembled in the old revolutionary capitol of Benghazi. Those fighters relied on a five-month air war prosecuted by NATO to attrit Gadhafi loyalists.

NATO's war continues. On Monday, NATO warplanes conducted 37 airstrikes, battering a radar system, surface-to-air missile systems and other targets in Gadhafi's unconquered hometown of Sirte. But at some point, NATO's war will stop. What happens to the revolutionary forces then, if the refinery attack was a prelude of things to come?

The Gadhafists have the opportunity. Libya is practically swimming in unsecured rockets and missiles from Gadhafi's weapons stockpiles. As early as April, Gadhafi loyalists experimented with insurgent tactics, dispersing their weapons and logistical supply chain and hiding amongst the population to strike at a time of their choosing.

Sound like Iraq yet? One difference, at least, is that neither NATO nor the revolutionary government appears to want foreign troops to help stabilize Libya. But if an insurgency develops, will the U.S. Congress — which demanded a No-Fly Zone before balking when President Obama actually enforced one — demand further U.S. involvement to secure a "victory" over Gadhafi? If this decade of war has two lessons, it's that insurgencies escalate quickly — and so does cheap political rhetoric demanding a forceful U.S. response.

I believe I said, perhaps on this very site, that Gaddafi is an old pro at terrorism.  Is anyone really surprised he would go this route?

And let us not forget, Niger, Chad and Algeria are at the very least apathetic about the TNC Government.  They may well be prepared to offer save havens to potential insurgents, giving them plenty of space to operate in.

Predictions of a North African war just went up a notch.

[LMNO]

Why hasn't anyone managed to kill him yet?

[Cain]

He's too fabulous to die.

[LMNO]

Ok, good point.  But realistically, since no one wants to come in and lay the hammer down, is there any other way to prevent Lybia from becoming another Afghanistan or Iraq?

[Cain]

Well, I'd say it doesn't have the potential to be as bad as either.  There are few real ethnic rivalries among the main Libyan powerholders (more by Arabs and Berbers against poor foreign black workers) and the structure of the proposed government doesn't seem to preclude any major group, or promote ethnic factionalism over nationalism.  Afghanistan was already like that when we got there, we just didn't help matters...and as for Iraq, we purposefully made it that way.  Libya is starting from a better point than Afghanistan, and with less interference and short-sightedness from foreign occupiers unfamiliar with the culture and politics of the country.

Really, the best thing they could do is offer amnesties for Gadaffi loyalists not wanted on war crimes or crimes against humanity charges.  Otherwise, they've got no incentive to do anything except fight to the bitter end.  Secure the borders, secure weapons dumps and use good old policing/intel operations to disrupt the rest.

[Adios]

Other than regional, what would the long term effects of a North African war be?