This reeks of desperation

[The Rev]

The economy and financial crisis in the US is completely fabricated.

Fabricated by warmongering, runaway defense  offensive military spending and foreign spending intended to control the part of the world the US isn't currently fighting.

[Cain]

I don't always agree with Pepe Escobar, but this article is pretty much dead-on:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MI30Df01.html

Syria will have to wait. The next stop in the Pentagon-coined "long war" is bound to be Pakistan. True, a war is already on in what the Barack Obama administration named AfPak. But crunch time in Pak itself looms closer and closer. Call it the "no bomb left behind" campaign.

Al-Qaeda is a thing of the past; after all, al-Qaeda assets such as Abdelhakim Belhaj are now running Tripoli. The new Washington-manufactured mega-bogeyman is now the Haqqani network.

A relentless, Haqqani-targeted manufacture of consensus industry is already on overdrive, via a constellation of the usual neo-conservative suspects, assorted Republican warmongers, "Pentagon officials" and industrial-military complex shills in corporate media.

The Haqqani network, a force of 15,000 to 20,000 Pashtun fighters led by former anti-Soviet mujahideen figure Jalalludin Haqqani, is a key component of the Afghan insurgency from its bases in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area.

For Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Haqqani network "acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] agency". It took Mullen no less than 10 years since Washington's bombing of Afghanistan to figure this out. Somebody ought to give him a Nobel Peace Prize.

According to the US government narrative, it was the ISI that gave the go-ahead for the Haqqani network to attack the US Embassy in Kabul on September 13.

Pentagon head Leon Panetta has gone on record saying that in response, Washington might go unilateral. This means that the vast numbers of Pashtun farmers, including women and children, who have already been decimated for months by US drone attacks on the tribal areas should be considered as extras in a humanitarian operation.

[...]

When in doubt, read the book

Predictably, Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani - incidentally, a Pentagon darling - denies the ISI is in bed with the Haqqanis. Well, they are. But even more salacious is the current Pakistani official spin - that because the US has failed so miserably in Af, now they are trying to blame Pak for the whole mess.

Looks like Mullen at least has been catching up with the late Syed Saleem Shahzad's essential book on AfPak, Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond Bin Laden and 9/11. In the book, Saleem, who as Asia Times Online's Pakistan bureau chief, details how the legendary - and vain - Jalalludin Haqqani (who still loves to dye his hair) never ceased to be a leading Taliban warlord; and how the ISI never stopped telling him that their offensives against himself, his son and his network were only a show.

The Haqqanis may be based in North Waziristan, but they run a great deal of the show in Paktia, Paktika and Khost on the other side of the border. Wily Jalalludin has pledged total allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah Omar - who everybody knows is holed up in Quetta, in Pakistan's Balochistan province, but remains mysteriously invisible even to the best US eyes in the sky.

To believe that the ISI would simply get rid of the Haqqanis, or disable their North Waziristan bases so they wouldn't be able to attack US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces in Afghanistan anymore, is pure wishful thinking. The Pakistani military has a major dog in the Afghan fight. And the name of the dog is Taliban - which they "invented" in the early 1990s.

Moreover, the Haqqanis can always be counted on as a sort of reserve army to fight the possibility of increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan.

When Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar says the US "cannot afford to alienate Pakistan", she's totally right. If that happens, the historic Taliban would turbo charge their already constant string of lethal attacks inside Afghanistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistan Taliban - TTP) would turbo charge cross-border attacks, from Kunar and Nuristan in Afghanistan into Dir and Bajaur in Pakistan. And hardcore military factions in Pakistan would be even more motivated to get rid of the civilian government altogether.

Because Washington to some extent trains and equips Islamabad's military, and the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is so very cozy with the ISI, some may think Washington "owns" Islamabad.

It does - but up to a point. Somebody should convene a seminar in Washington to explain that the Pakistani army has a very different agenda from the ISI, while the ISI is crammed with secret rogue cells; it's one of those cells that may have murdered Saleem Shahzad.

The Pakistani military is trying to make sure the "historic" Taliban led by Mullah Omar, as well as the Hizb-e Islami of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, lose much of their influence in Afghanistan. But at the same time, these hardcore ISI cells want to keep supporting the Haqqani network as a means to keep any future Afghan government on its toes.

Escobar goes on to detail how Pakistan have bolstered their strategic position by improving their ties recently with long-term allies, China and Saudi Arabia.  Petrodollars plus Chinese arms make for a formidable combination.  As does Pakistani control of the Karachi supply route for Afghanistan (75% of all NATO supplies coming in on that route).  Pakistan has Washington by the balls, and there is nothing the strategists in the Pentagon and NSC can do about it.  The ISI have played a blinder, and now the US is left with very few options, all of them bad.

[Cain]

It is no coincidence that this has been leaked now:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/world/asia/pakistanis-tied-to-2007-attack-on-americans.html?_r=2&hp

A group of American military officers and Afghan officials had just finished a five-hour meeting with their Pakistani hosts in a village schoolhouse settling a border dispute when they were ambushed — by the Pakistanis.

An American major was killed and three American officers were wounded, along with their Afghan interpreter, in what fresh accounts from the Afghan and American officers who were there reveal was a complex, calculated assault by a nominal ally. The Pakistanis opened fire on the Americans, who returned fire before escaping in a blood-soaked Black Hawk helicopter.

The attack, in Teri Mangal on May 14, 2007, was kept quiet by Washington, which for much of a decade has seemed to play down or ignore signals that Pakistan would pursue its own interests, or even sometimes behave as an enemy.

The reconstruction of the attack, which several officials suggested was revenge for Afghan or Pakistani deaths at American hands, takes on new relevance given the worsening rupture in relations between Washington and Islamabad, which has often been restrained by Pakistan's strategic importance.

[LMNO]

So, now we bomb Pakistan.  What could possibly go wrong?

[deadfong]

Christ, I hope it doesn't come to that, because I just don't know how India would jump if we increased hostilities against Pakistan.  The Indian people might be itching for another war - the letters in the papers following the Mumbai attack were pretty much 100% let's go to war and/or nuke the fuckers - but I've always gotten the impression that, Kashmir aside, the Indian government and military would rather concentrate on other things, like worrying about China or increasing economic growth, India Shining and all that crap.

I don't know if India would get drawn in to a shooting war between us and Pakistan, but if they did and Pakistan started losing, I can easily see Pakistan going nuclear, because they've got such an extreme fear of/inferiority complex about India.

[Cain]

Listening to Admiral Mullen, he has urged caution to the Armed Services Committee.

However, this isn't good at all.  Someone definitely feels there is an interest in poking Pakistan with sticks (hence the leak posted above) and...well, you can never predict how the missing chromosone set of the Republican Party are going to react.

[Jenne]

Ugh.  The best proposition is to keep Pakistan from imploding.  NOT keep poking it.  Feh.

[Cain]

How much Haqqani can you handle?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68292/michael-semple/how-the-haqqani-network-is-expanding-from-waziristan

Here are the basics. Jalaluddin Haqqani was one of the leading Pashtun commanders of the jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s. From the Zadran tribe, he is one of the few major commanders who made his peace with the Taliban, serving its government in the 1990s as a border affairs minister. The sons of the now aging Jalaluddin front the organization. Although the eldest son, Khalifa Seraj, is meant to be the senior decision-maker, his younger brother, Badruddin, is probably the family member most closely involved in the embassy siege and seems to be more active and accessible. In part, the brothers draw upon fighters from the Zadran tribe in the border provinces who were loyal to Jalaluddin during the 1980s. But the Haqqanis' lethal effectiveness derives from the wide range of Pakistani tribal fighters at their disposal. In effect, they have an unlimited supply of men for small-arms ambushes and attacks on NATO posts and administrative centers.

What is new here, and key to understanding the attack on the embassy (and perhaps even the Rabbani assassination), is that over the last two years the Haqqanis have developed what amounts to a special forces capability. They have built up intelligence-gathering networks and infiltrated government institutions in Kabul and the surrounding provinces. With the help of al Qaeda and Central Asian fighters, foreign militants in Waziristan have developed advanced combat training and technology for roadside bombs. The Haqqanis draw on this expertise without actually controlling the groups who deliver it. Rather than the Haqqani Network, it would be more appropriate to call this the Waziristan Militant Complex.

Even if they outsource some of their special operations, the Haqqanis feverishly guard the one part of their operation they consider far too valuable to let out of their control: propaganda. Young fighters take combat video courses in the North Waziristan capital of Miran Shah and then accompany their comrades on attacks to collect footage. The Haqqani video editors then splice the bloody footage with B-roll snatched from satellite channels and YouTube. The result is a library of slick jihadi videos, glorifying the fighters and martyrs, stressing the precise and devastating nature of their attacks, and lampooning the Afghan government. Some even include credits claiming to be made by the "Cultural Committee of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." The Waziristan militants are projecting themselves as chiefs of the Islamic Emirate brand, which is important because they are trying to sideline, at least in the eyes of those watching, their Afghan jihadist counterparts.

[Verbal Mike]

Feel free to explain why I'm stupid, but with such a lose-lose situation in the region, why shouldn't the US and NATO just pull out of there? Why keep helping out one side against another only to find out that supposed "allies" are now enemies? Because you know, it's kind of cyclic so far, and there's no reason to believe shifting towards Uzbekistan won't end the same way, even if it were to solve the Pakistan thing (which it won't).

[Cain]

Well....

- Pride.  "The United States is the world's greatest military power, and will not be humiliated by a bunch of fundamentalist dregs, goat farmers and second rate intelligence officers.  If we turn and run, we'll be no better than Europeans, and the Russians and Chinese will snicker at us at the UN."

- Ideology.  "The United States is a force for peace and prosperity.  Furthermore, it has a moral duty to defeat Islamic fundamentalism and spread secular liberal democracy in the region."

- Military.  "If Afghanistan returns to being a failed state under Pakistani tutelage, it will become a base for international terrorists to operate in once again.  Furthermore, the rise of extremist groups like the Taliban nearly brought the region to war on several occasions, most notably in 1999 (when they kidnapped and executed Iranian diplomats)."

- Economic.  "Afghanistan is a potential route for a gas pipeline exiting in Pakistan, which avoids going through Iranian or Russian territory.  Afghanistan has trillions in lithium deposits, and lithium is to be a primary fuel source once oil becomes too expensive to extract.  Central Asian states bordering on Afghanistan are resource rich, especially in terms of energy and precious metals, and regional instability (see above) will threaten these resources falling under hostile control."

- Political.  "I've gained a lot of influence and budget increases due to the war in Afghanistan.  Therefore, regardless of the cost to the country as a whole, I am going to do everything possible to continue the conflict, as I am doing well out of it."

Those are the main lines of reasoning, anyway.

[Cain]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15134128

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said his government will no longer hold peace talks with the Taliban.

He said the killing of Burhanuddin Rabbani had convinced him to focus on dialogue with Pakistan.

Former Afghan President Rabbani was negotiating with the Taliban but was killed by a suicide bomber purporting to be a Taliban peace emissary.

US President Barack Obama has renewed calls for Pakistani action against militants of the Haqqani network.

Mr Karzai, speaking to a group of religious leaders, said there were no partners for dialogue among the Taliban. It was not possible to find the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, he added.

"Where is he? We cannot find the Taliban Council. Where is it?" he said.

"A messenger comes disguised as a Taliban Council member and kills, and they neither confirm nor reject it. Therefore, we cannot talk to anyone but to Pakistan," Mr Karzai told the meeting.

It's cute how Karzai thinks he wasn't talking to Pakistan in the first place.

Also, Mullah Omar is in Quetta.  Worst kept secret of the 21st century.  It's called the Quetta Shura, for fucks sake.

[Cain]

Oh, look!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15141985

The Afghan government says its investigations show that the killer of Burhanuddin Rabbani, its negotiator with the Taliban, was a Pakistani.

Evidence from the case showed the murder was plotted in the Pakistani city of Quetta, a statement said.

Rabbani was assassinated on 20 September by a suicide attacker who purported to be a Taliban peace envoy.

Kabul has often accused Pakistan of supporting militants but Islamabad has denied any role in Rabbani's death.

After the killing, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said his government would no longer hold peace talks with the Taliban, but would focus on dialogue with Pakistan.

Good luck "negotiating" with Pakistan.  I would not be surprised to learn the ISI supported the attack to derail the peace talks.

[Cain]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/story/2011-10-02/ieds-traced-to-pakistan/50638686/1

From June through August, U.S. troops detected or were hit by 5,088 improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the most for any three-month period since the war began in 2001.

That's roughly equivalent to what the Iraqi insurgency was pumping out in the dying months of 2005.

Speaking of the Iraqi insurgency, they've recently unveiled the remote control car-bomb.  They can drive and detonate it without having to have anyone in the vehicle.