This reeks of desperation

[Cain]

It's not quite "evacuation from Saigon Embassy" time yet, but it's not far off.  Consider:

Obama has gone slinking back to Islam Karimov, in hope of reopening the "Northern Distribution Network":

Congress is reviewing whether or not to grant the president the power to waive existing restrictions on giving assistance to Uzbekistan -- and that includes military aid to the government. Since 2004, there have restrictions on what sorts of military equipment can be sold to the Uzbek government. The Obama administration, including the Pentagon, is strongly lobbying Congress at the moment to drop these restrictions. That would allow Uzbekistan to buy supposedly nonlethal or defensive military equipment such as shields, armor, et cetera.

Readers with long memories will recall the Andijan killings of 2005, which led to the freeze on American-Uzbek relations, were so shocking that even the Bush administration was moved to condemn them.

Also, while there is apparently some kind of financial crisis in the US, the government has somehow found money to build a new prison in Afghanistan:

Posted on the aptly named FedBizOps.Gov website which it uses to announce new privatized spending projects, the administration unveiled plans for "the construction of Detention Facility in Parwan (DFIP), Bagram, Afghanistan" which includes "detainee housing capability for approximately 2000 detainees."  It will also feature "guard towers, administrative facility and Vehicle/Personnel Access Control Gates, security surveillance and restricted access systems."  The announcement provided: "the estimated cost of the project is between $25,000,000 to $100,000,000."

And why would the government need such a big prison?  Well, it could be because of their new "doctrine" - raiding civilian homes during the night, detaining them in the hope they can find someone, anyone who knows about the Taliban:

Based on interviews with current and former US military officials with knowledge of the strategic thinking behind the raids, as well as Afghans who have been caught up in the raids, the authors of the study write that large numbers of civilians are being detained for brief periods of time merely to find out what they know about local insurgents - a practice the authors suggest may violate the Geneva Conventions on warfare.

A military officer who had approved night raids told one of the authors that targeting individuals believed to know one of the insurgents is a key factor in planning the raids. "If you can't get the guy you want," said the officer, "you get the guy who knows him."

And by large numbers, the author means "up to entire villages of people at a time".

All of this, of course, comes on the back of an ever increasing number of attacks aimed at the heart of Kabul and of American political power in the country.  The Taliban message is clear: the Americans and their allies cannot even control the capital.  They certainly cannot control the countryside.  Join with us, instead.

NATO puts this down to a "strategic communication" issue.  I put this down to an issue of the Taliban being, y'know, actually right.  ISAF is dead in the sand, it just doesn't know it yet.

[Jenne]

The US military is fucking frustrated.  They know they're outta there as "boots on the ground" soon, but they still haven't made any headway in terms of getting stabilization outside of Talib influence in any kind of government--legit or not--in Afghanistan.  In anywhere.

The whole thing is a shitpile, from start to finish.  And at this point, instead of saving face and just leaving some blueprints and cash, they're trying to jackboot what little they can in the weaker Talib areas.  The thing is, they're dealing with a population of ingrained tribal mentality that WILL NOT comply, just because they're armed and outsiders.

And that's that.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Just... fucking hell.

[Cain]

Admiral Mullen is claiming, incidentially, that the ISI backed the Haqqani Network attacks on USA's Kabul Embassy last week.  That is part of the rationale in sucking up to Karimov, to reduce the 75% supply dependency on Pakistani routes.

[Jenne]

I'd probably cozy up to the Uzbeks, too...I don't blame them for wanting to reduce contact with Pakistan at all.

[Freeky]

So... when is the rest of the world going to declare war on us?  Because, seriously, we deserve it, and we deserve to lose.

[Jenne]

They don't declare war, Freeky, so much as they want us to KICK DOWN...so much less costly than war, ya know?

[Freeky]

They don't declare war, Freeky, so much as they want us to KICK DOWN...so much less costly than war, ya know?

I guess?  My brain isn't really engaged today, so I don't know if "kick down" is a terminology I know, or if I'm just herpa derp. 

Probably I'm just herp a derp derp.

[Cain]

I'd probably cozy up to the Uzbeks, too...I don't blame them for wanting to reduce contact with Pakistan at all.

Islam Karimov is just as bad as them, if not more so.  Lets give the Pakistani's some credit: people extradited there for questioning don't always end up dead.  Notice how you never hear about extraordinary rendition to Uzbekistan?  That's because everyone who was sent there ends up dead.  Tortured to death.  There are no stories to sell to newspapers, because dead men tell no tales.

Also the whole "boiling political dissidents alive" thing.  And child slaves.  And the "former Communist dictator who planned a coup with crypto-fascists against Gorbachev" thing.  Pakistan is contested, and while you're likely to end up assassinated for taking the wrong position, you're just as likely to win some friends from the opposing groups to those you snubbed.  In Uzbekistan, there is no opposition.  They were all killed.  You do as Karimov likes, or you are killed.

Pakistan are our enemy, but Karimov is an evil fuck on a whole new level.  Enabling him will come back to haunt us.

[Jenne]

...the evil that harbored Bin Laden vs. the evil that preys on its own but is too weak at the moment to be more than an itch in our asshole...hmm...it's choosing the enemy least able to harm US, in the end, isn't it?

Again, not a GREAT choice, but I have no faith in Pakistan being out for anyone BUT Pakistan, the fucking lying liars.  As for the Uzbeks...being out for themselves is what they've been about for quite a long long time.  Where they are located, as you pointed out, has worked gainst them for as long as they've existed.  Still and all, wary non-adversary is better than "friend" that lies.  Over and over.  And over and over.

[Jenne]

I'm not saying the Uzbeks are awesome--obviously Karimov is a despotic thug...but we have put so many of our eggs in Pakistan's basket...I'm happy to get AWAY from their bullshittery--which, I harbor no real sentiment that we BELIEVED...or even WENT ALONG WITH in the nitty-gritty.  I'm sure we were just as fucking skeptical of them as they were two-faced to us.

And since we're the ultimate in two-faced, I'm sure it sounds disingenuous at best.  But my interests lie in a more stable Afghan gummament...as impossible as that shit might be.

[Cain]

Al-Qaeda are a piddling group of extremists whose ability to do harm depends almost entirely on how their enemy overreacts.  Zawahiri doesn't even have a real state under his control.

States > non-state actors.  And Uzbekistan is the most heavily populated, ethnically homogenous and militaristic state in Central Asia, with substansial minorities in neighbouring states.  If we start arming them hardcore, it wont be long before they start exercising that additional military power to redraw the maps in central Asia.  Uzbekistan with Turkmen gas reserves?  Uzbekistan with Kazakh oil and gold reserves?  I'd rather not have to kowtow to a jumped up former backwater Communist functionary with deusions of grandeur for my energy needs.

[Jenne]

Do you think we'll take it that far?  I rather imagined we'd be glad-handing them to get through and stop there...though I know they've played chicken with us in the past, the wily fuckers expecting us to do that.

But I was rather HOPING (silly me!) that we'd learned our lesson with Afghanistan, et al and wouldn't arm them much further than it took to satisfy getting through in the short-term.  Perhaps I'm mistaken in that assumption.  Again, it's the enemy you know ain't your friend vs. the not yet adversary that you can take advantage of.  I've heard plenty out in the field bitch about how little is done about the Uzbeks and the way they treat each other.  You've posted some here on it as well.

But the facts of the geography make it so that Uzbekistan WILL probably be a player--will-you, nill-you.  Perhaps a form of pacification is necessary to keep them under watchful eye rather than letting them go whole-hog rogue in order to be a "player" in the game?  I'm not sure how much differently this can be handled...given where certain mountains lie.  Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are probably getting some of the same action, if I don't miss my guess there.  I haven't heard about it in a while.

Forgot to mention:  besides the obvious War on Terra issues, there's the gas pipeline that Russia's fast losing dominion over in that region that is likely up and coming as a bone of contention.  Tajiks have been "used" for their "passageway" for so long that only now are they standing up to the Uzbeks and gettng away from Uzbek-gas-dominated infrastructure (with hydro of all things)...so this bears watching as well.  Because of course Dear China is in the mix already.

[Jenne]

They don't declare war, Freeky, so much as they want us to KICK DOWN...so much less costly than war, ya know?

I guess?  My brain isn't really engaged today, so I don't know if "kick down" is a terminology I know, or if I'm just herpa derp. 

Probably I'm just herp a derp derp.

Kick down $...you know, for their "cause."

[Cain]

Also this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/25/world/asia/brutal-haqqani-clan-bedevils-united-states-in-afghanistan.html?ref=afghanistan

Over the past five years, with relatively few American troops operating in eastern Afghanistan, the Haqqanis have run what is in effect a protection racket for construction firms — meaning that American taxpayers are helping to finance the enemy network.

You know, sometimes, I wonder if Afghanistan is some kind of devilshly smart conspiracy, like in Steven Erikson's Gardens of the Moon/Memories of Ice, and some day Obama will outlaw the entire US military in Afghanistan, who will then cut an alliance with the Taliban and attack China (and it'll turn out all this stupidity, letting the Taliban get away, misappropriation of funds etc was part of a plan to strengthen the Taliban all along, as was the outlawing, in order to gain an alliance).

However, that would be giving the US political system far too much credit.