Odds on a war with Iran before 2013?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Current thinking is regime change in Syria is a sop to Israel, to stop them from pushing too hard for war with Iran.

Jesus.  We're like an abused spouse.

[Cain]

Obama was sounding a lot more threatening in front of AIPAC today.  On the other hand, it was AIPAC, and this was an election year.

This is a bit worrying though:

...it is important for us to see if we can solve this thing permanently, as opposed to temporarily. And the only way, historically, that a country has ultimately decided not to get nuclear weapons without constant military intervention has been when they themselves take [nuclear weapons] off the table. That's what happened in Libya, that's what happened in South Africa.

Yeah, because that worked out really well for Colonel Gaddafi.  I'm sure the mullahs are just lining up for a program that ends up with them being anally raped with knives before being shot in the head.

Only an idiot would disarm after Iraq and Libya.  The Iranians are many things, but they are not idiots.  Nuclear ambiguity is the only thing preventing them from being invaded in 10 years time.

[Junkenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17251279

Video linked within seems interesting, may be out of context.

The piece reads as a move to exert political pressure, which is a bit of a problem as, well, shit's still going down pretty much everywhere, constantly
Yet, the video is classic posturing - No action off the table, strong emphasis and pauses at all military mentions. It could be the Israel orientated audience, but my "Oh fuck, here we go again soon" sense is tingling.

Calling it now - The president that leads "The War on Terror" into to Pakistan is probably coming. Not today, but at this rate I'd say within the century.

To ensure fulfilment of said prophecy every and all future world leader is about to, and simultaneously likely to, invade Pakistan. They should be worried.

[minuspace]

I'm giving it a 1/7 chance, after today's IAEA report.

Playbook goes like this: Israel and Saudi Arabia want Iran gone, but they don't want to do the heavy lifty.  Cue a bunch of scary stories about assassination and nuclear potential and war plans.  Pressure mounts internally and externally for Something To Be Done.

The people around Obama are probably the least enthusiastic about war in the Beltway elite, but this does not mean much in the grand scheme of things.   Obama may also see there being some kind of electoral gain from a war, especially if Romney is in the race and it looks like independents are shying away from the White House campaign.

The odds are still lower than a war would be with the Republicans in charge, and it's not a done deal yet...but the stuff I'm hearing is discouraging, to say the least.  I feel like ringing Hillary Clinton and shouting down the line "you're getting played, you dumb fuck", but that's just a good way to get onto airport check lists.

I loathe admitting it, however, my indicator was their purportedly throttling internets...

[Cain]

David Cameron, making shit up:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/06/iran-building-nuclear-weapon-david-cameron

David Cameron has warned that Iran is seeking to build an "inter-continental nuclear weapon" that threatens the west, as he urged Israel to allow time for sanctions to force the Iranians to change their strategic stance.

He was speaking after the cabinet was briefed for an hour by the national security adviser, Sir Kim Darroch, on the imminence of the threat to the UK posed by Iran.

It is the first time Cameron has made such an explicit warning that Iran could endanger UK security, and has faint echoes of the warnings from Tony Blair's government that Iraq could fire weapons of mass destruction with 45 minutes' notice.

It is understood that the government's National Security Council is also looking at potential reprisals in the UK if Israel were to launch a pre-emptive strike against an Iranian nuclear weapons site. Cameron will be briefed by President Barack Obama next week on the US approach to any such strike when the two leaders meet in Washington.

Is this the same inter-continental ballstic missile which Donald Rumsfeld warned they would have by 2003?  And the same nuclear weapons that Bibi warned they would have by 1995?

[Junkenstein]

"faint echoes"?

I've just had a bout of deja vu so hard it's made my eyes bleed.

[Cain]

Yeah, srsly.  It's also not the opinion of the American intelligence services, or the IAEA.

[LMNO]

American haven't forgotten the past, they never even noticed it in the first place.


The willingness of The People to be led by the nose is, frankly, quite embarrassing.

[Phox]

American haven't forgotten the past, they never even noticed it in the first place.


The willingness of The People to be led by the nose is, frankly, quite embarrassing.

You said it, LMNO.

[Cain]

One sign of hope is that the P5+1 talks are restarting.

And with the Supreme Ayatollah apparently taking charge, there might even be progress:

"The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous."

[LMNO]

One sign of hope is that the P5+1 talks are restarting.

And with the Supreme Ayatollah apparently taking charge, there might even be progress:

"The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous."

With a minimum amount of snark on my part, I must ask to what degree or amount do you think what they are saying is true.

(You, on the other hand, can answer with as much snark as you'd like.)

[Phox]

One sign of hope is that the P5+1 talks are restarting.

And with the Supreme Ayatollah apparently taking charge, there might even be progress:

"The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous."

Good to know, Cain; I appreciate you keeping us updated on this stuff.

One sign of hope is that the P5+1 talks are restarting.

And with the Supreme Ayatollah apparently taking charge, there might even be progress:

"The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous."

With a minimum amount of snark on my part, I must ask to what degree or amount do you think what they are saying is true.

(You, on the other hand, can answer with as much snark as you'd like.)

This question also occurred to me.

[Junkenstein]

I have an overwhelming urge to grab people and scream "They're doing it again you stupid fuckers! This is YOUR fault!" at them over and over until they either ask me what I'm talking about or run away.

Actually, I resist these urges all too often, so I'll indulge myself in this time.

If you see no posts for the next few weeks assume I've been imprisoned somewhere and need assistance.

I also have a mild suspicion that Cain has access to a form of time travel.

[LMNO]

I also have a mild suspicion that Cain has access to a form of time travel.

And if he does, the fact that he's not making a killing on the stock market is a very troubling sign.

[Cain]

Hard to say.  However, they're putting a lot of religious weight on it, and I think if they violated that, it would send a message that the Islamic government is no longer credible even by its own standards.

My belief is that, like Japan, Iran wants to have a nuclear capacity, but not a nuclear stockpile, and that it is concerned more by high internal oil consumption (at a time of high oil prices, no less) than it is by having the capacity to strike the USA .  The more oil they can sell, the better their economy, which then strengthens their relative position in global affairs far more effectively than pursuing nukes.