Odds on a war with Iran before 2013?

[Cain]

Quick question, Cain. Based on operation - pull out of Iraq by xmas. What is the most cost-effective use of those middle east assets? I was wondering if redeploying somewhere else sandy, nearby would be a lot cheaper than bringing them home and then maybe having to send them all the way back there in a years time. (no idea how these things work, really)

To be honest, I'm not sure.  However, as I'm sure you are aware, money is essentially no issue for the Pentagon.  In addition to having a trillion dollar budget, most of its wars are waged off the books, with few questions asked when it comes to cost.

Realistically, I think the US will maintain its current strategic pose, both in the region and globally.  The troops will withdraw, Obama will use covert action, drones and combined naval/air force operations to cripple Iran, should it come to war.  The Army will downsize as planned, and redeployment of forces to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia will continue.

[Cain]

There is a remarkable amount of reluctance among the American liberal press to label the acts of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists as terrorism.

Well, lets see: Group A (the nuclear physicists) are being killed by Group B (depending on who you ask, the USA/Israel/MeK) to convince Group C (the Iranian government) to act differently.  There is a measure of utility in killing nuclear physicists, as opposed random bystanders, but not really, because that expertise is not going away unless you kill everyone in Iran with a background in physics and the ability to use Google.  Furthermore, I suspect the scientists most responsible for the program are working within the military, and thus are much harder targets than people teaching at Tehran Poytechnic.

It also neatly fits the definition of terrorism as "the peacetime equivalent of a war crime", since under the laws of war, targeting the physicists would also be considered a war crime.  Assassination seems more reasonable than outright warfare, and it is, but only when you actually target people who matter.  Otherwise its just pointless murder for political reasons, i.e; terrorism.

[Phox]

I seem to recall one of the Republican candidates saying something along the lines of "I hope the U.S. is responsible for killing the Iranian scientists." (I forget the exact details. I will see if I can't dig it up tomorrow morning).

Anyway, it is rather disappointing, when a candidate for POTUS can get away with expressing support for terrorist acts, and hoping that the U.S. is responsible.

[Cain]

Santorum was getting rather excited about the whole thing, the other day.  I'm fairly sure he had a stiffy, the way he was going on.

That said, I think if someone doesn't like the smell of car bombings and targeted killings in the morning, then the job of President of the USA is not a job for them.  Remember, Jimmy Carter was considered a limp-wristed humanitarian, and he unleashed the Mujahideen against the Soviets.  You think the Taliban are bad?  The Washington Post at the time reported that the mujahideen liked to "torture victims by first cutting off their noses, ears, and genitals, then removing one slice of skin after another."

[Phox]

Santorum was getting rather excited about the whole thing, the other day.  I'm fairly sure he had a stiffy, the way he was going on.

That said, I think if someone doesn't like the smell of car bombings and targeted killings in the morning, then the job of President of the USA is not a job for them.  Remember, Jimmy Carter was considered a limp-wristed humanitarian, and he unleashed the Mujahideen against the Soviets.  You think the Taliban are bad?  The Washington Post at the time reported that the mujahideen liked to "torture victims by first cutting off their noses, ears, and genitals, then removing one slice of skin after another."

I'm just disappointed that no one (that I've seen) has come out strongly against that position (either politicians, or members of the media). I'd like to imagine that there was a time when that sort of comment would be a political blunder, or at least catch some flak. I could be wrong about that, but it makes it no less disappointing. 

(Fully aware of the realities of office, disappointed in the tone and atmosphere of the election, if that makes sense.)

[Cain]

Ron Paul has condemned it, as you would expect.  Gary Johnson too, I believe.

And hell, the past wasn't much better.  Recall, Nixon had Gordon Liddy on call, a man who came up with half a dozen plans to assassinate Daniel Ellsberg.  The entire CIA was conceived as a covert action arm of the Presidency, with the "cover" of an intelligence gathering agency, according to Chalmers Johnson, who was of course a contractor for them at one point (when the term meant an academic expert, and not a noob with a gun and a chip on his shoulder) and so had access to the historical records to prove it.

Bit hazy on how such things were conducted before the OSS, but I suspect organised crime and old boys networks dating basic to college, fraternities and so on, were the principal links.

[Phox]

Ron Paul has condemned it, as you would expect.  Gary Johnson too, I believe.

And hell, the past wasn't much better.  Recall, Nixon had Gordon Liddy on call, a man who came up with half a dozen plans to assassinate Daniel Ellsberg.  The entire CIA was conceived as a covert action arm of the Presidency, with the "cover" of an intelligence gathering agency, according to Chalmers Johnson, who was of course a contractor for them at one point (when the term meant an academic expert, and not a noob with a gun and a chip on his shoulder) and so had access to the historical records to prove it.

Bit hazy on how such things were conducted before the OSS, but I suspect organised crime and old boys networks dating basic to college, fraternities and so on, were the principal links.

Good to know people are still criticizing it at least. I saw it come up exactly once, and then disappear from my radar, so I obviously just missed that. (To be honest, I don't really follow the news on the primary, and pretty much ignore anything about Ron Paul, because his supporters tend to tell me all about him anyway... perhaps i should pay more attention).

and thanks for the historical reminders. It's pretty depressing state of affairs, but like you said, I guess it was never much better. 

[Cain]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/russia-says-nato-persian-gulf-nations-plan-to-seek-no-fly-zone-for-syria.html

Russia received information that members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and some Persian Gulf countries are preparing military intervention in Syria, the head of the Russian Security Council said.

Turkey, a NATO member, may play a key role, Nikolai Patrushev, who used to head the country's intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, told Interfax in comments confirmed by his office. The U.S. and Turkey are working on a possible no-fly zone to protect Syrian rebels, Patrushev said.

"We are receiving information that NATO members and some Persian Gulf states, working under the 'Libyan scenario', intend to move from indirect intervention in Syria to direct military intervention," the Russian security chief said.

[Cain]

The EU placed sanctions on Iranian oil imports today.

Note: Greece currently depends on Iranian energy for 25% of its total energy consumption.  In other words, the Greek economy, already on the ropes, will almost certainly be in a full blown crisis within the next month, crippling the Eurozone and sending waves of panic throughout  international markets.

Why did the faceless idiots that run the EU agree to these sanctions?  Because they're idiots.  Why did the idiots that run American foreign policy ask the EU to engage in such sanctions?  Because they're idiots.  Now they're pushing Iran into a situation where its only options are capitulation and war, and it will almost certainly choose the latter, or at the very least try to acquire nuclear weapons to offset further attempts to overthrow the government, thus "justifying" the war we are going to be embroiled in, the idiots.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

Goddamn it.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Fuck.

[Elder Iptuous]

The EU placed sanctions on Iranian oil imports today.
...
Now they're pushing Iran into a situation where its only options are capitulation and war, and it will almost certainly choose the latter, or at the very least try to acquire nuclear weapons to offset further attempts to overthrow the government, thus "justifying" the war we are going to be embroiled in, the idiots.

you think that this will push Iran to attack? (who would they attack?) or are you saying that their lack of capitulation will be considered an aggressive act that justifies attacking them?

[Cain]

Iran would likely close the Straits of Hormuz, as the opening act of any war (ignoring the currently existing covert war, of course).

Their resistance to "respecting the will of the international community" is being pushed as a legit reason to attack, but I think without an overt action on Iran's behalf, only those already in the tank for invasion would be outspoken supporters of an open attack. 

Getting Iran to throw the first public punch would go a long way to whipping up something approaching popular support.  And the Iranian government are dumb enough to do it.  To be honest, with their banking access cut off, there are already numerous angry voices calling for action (what kind?  who knows?  but Something Must Be Done).

Eventually, the Iranian government will be in a very precarious situation.  Constant inaction in the face of US and Israeli aggression will make them look weak, and may empower more radical elements within the Revolutionary Guard and those around the President to take matters into their own hands.  It'll be a "jump or be pushed" scenario for the ruling mullahs.

[Cain]

Press TV's licence to broadcast in the UK has been revoked.

Not that censoring enemy propaganda is a wartime move or anything 

[Nephew Twiddleton]

So, probably can expect open fighting to begin fairly soon?

What do you think would be the outcome of all of this? Would the US stop short of replacing the government or would we attempt to occupy and dismantle the current regime in favor of a pro-US dictatorship democracy?