Israel : security/intel coup on the question of Iran?

[Cain]

Check it

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/world/middleeast/chances-of-iran-strike-receding-us-officials-say.html?ref=global-home&pagewanted=all

At the same time in Israel, the conservative government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been rocked by a series of public comments from current and former Israeli military and intelligence officials questioning the wisdom of attacking Iran.

The latest comments came from Yuval Diskin, the former chief of Shin Bet, Israel's domestic security service, who on Friday said Mr. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak should not be trusted to determine policy on Iran. He said the judgments of both men have been clouded by "messianic feelings." Mr. Diskin, who was chief of Shin Bet until last year, said an attack against Iran might cause it to speed up its nuclear program.

Just days before, Israel's army chief of staff suggested in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that the the Iranian threat was not quite as imminent as Mr. Netanyahu has portrayed it. In his comments, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz suggested that he agreed with the intelligence assessments of the United States that Iran has not yet decided whether to build a nuclear bomb.

Iran "is going step by step to the place where it will be able to decide whether to manufacture a nuclear bomb. It hasn't yet decided whether to go the extra mile," General Gantz told Haaretz. He suggested that the crisis may not come to a head this year. But he said, "Clearly, the more the Iranians progress, the worse the situation is."

Last month, Meir Dagan, the former chief of the Israeli spy agency Mossad, said he did not advocate a pre-emptive Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program anytime soon. In an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes," Mr. Dagan said the Iranian government was "a very rational one," and that Iranian officials were "considering all the implications of their actions."

While on the one hand it's nice to see some people in Israel with power and influence who are not obviously crazy, this still doesn't exactly bode well for Israeli politics, in the long-term.

Israel's opposition has made the same points - but its the security peeps who are controlling the terms and making the moves on this debate.  There's obviously a big issue here: security policy should be under civilian control, and subject to democratic checks and balances.

While the military and security forces becoming more independent may be the lesser evil - especially when one considers the results of a strike on Iran in economic terms - it still doesn't exactly bode well for Israeli politics or society, that the only people with the clout to speak out effectively against Bibi's insanity are unelected officials.

[Juana]

Interesting. Thanks!

[The Wizard Joseph]

Check it

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/world/middleeast/chances-of-iran-strike-receding-us-officials-say.html?ref=global-home&pagewanted=all

The latest comments came from Yuval Diskin, the former chief of Shin Bet, Israel's domestic security service, who on Friday said Mr. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak should not be trusted to determine policy on Iran. He said the judgments of both men have been clouded by "messianic feelings." Mr. Diskin, who was chief of Shin Bet until last year, said an attack against Iran might cause it to speed up its nuclear program.

Greetings again Cain.

The troubles of Israel have been a point of interest to me for quite a while.  Mostly from the perspective of religious belief.  What do you figure they mean here about Messianic Feelings that may be felt by Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Barak?

How far might this escalate, and do you think the religious angle will be a strong factor?

[Cain]

I've never figured religion a strong factor in Israeli/Iranian rivalry.  They've cooperated before, so it obviously wasn't that big an issue back in the 80s, and I don't see the trends having changed massively since then.

Messianic is an interesting term.  They might have wanted to use one a bit more secular, however.  Bibi is an egomanic, he is utterly convinced that he alone is right, that he is talented enough to see what others do not, and he alone is the one capable of saving Israel.  In fact, he reminds me of Tony Blair in some key ways.  It's not necessarily a case of religious fanaticism so much as it is overbearing arrogance.

[The Wizard Joseph]

So it would seem to you that the whole reference may be about their own MASSIVE egos and a messianic complex of sorts then? Interesting. 

I asked because I've had a lot of firsthand experience within the American Christian right and several close, personal American Jewish contacts (sadly, no Isreali nationals as yet) that would seem extremely left politically here, but are hardline Israeli nationalists.  There is a bit of religious crazy that runs through both groups.  It's all about getting the temple rebuilt in Jerusalem.  It's almost never talked about in open politics. 

Christianity is essentially waiting for the temple to be rebuilt so their whole prophetic end-times scenario can get rolling and Jesus will come back.
AFAICT many Israelis are more than willing to accept fundie money from Chrisitan groups because they want the temple too, but for reasons that seem far more political and cultural to me.

The reference to "Messianic feelings" seems to make more sense as a reference to egomania, but I still wonder how deep the religious madness really goes. 

As for getting back to the current Iranian bit, I heard that they are "back at the table" this morning from public radio news on my way to work.  We'll see, I guess. 

Do you think that the Iranians seek a nuclear weapon?  I mean it's been shouted from every spire as reason to enforce sanctions upon Iran.  If Iran did progress it's refinement technologies without interference might they make a dash for it? What motive would they have to target Israel if they did have such a device?

[Prince Glittersnatch III]

Messianic is an interesting term.  They might have wanted to use one a bit more secular, however.  Bibi is an egomanic, he is utterly convinced that he alone is right, that he is talented enough to see what others do not, and he alone is the one capable of saving Israel.  In fact, he reminds me of Tony Blair in some key ways.  It's not necessarily a case of religious fanaticism so much as it is overbearing arrogance.

So he actually believes the shit he is spouting?

[Cain]

Perhaps.  Who knows?

Shit just got legitimately weird very quickly in Israeli politics, though.  So, elections are due for 2013, near the tail-end.  But Bibi dissolves the Knesset and decides he's going to call for elections now.  Observers assume this is because he doesn't have the necessary domestic political capital to attack Iran yet, or else to do with the unsettled economic situation in Israel.

Either way, just as the Knesset dissolved, Bibi struck a deal with the leader of the opposition, Shaul Mofaz.  Mofaz ousted the better known, but not necessarily more sane, Tzipi Linvi a couple of weeks ago, and has gone from senior Kadima member to Deputy Prime Minister in a very short period of time.  Kadima now form part of the Israel government, and the elections have been postponed again until 2013.

So, we know what Mofaz has gained from this.  But what has Bibi got?  That's the question to keep in mind while viewing Israeli politics over the next couple of months.

Although, if I were Netanyahu, I wouldn't feel too safe.  Mofaz's rise to power has been exceptionally fast these past couple of weeks.  I somehow doubt his ambitions will be sated by the position of Deputy PM.

[Placid Dingo]

This seems to have been quieter (and I've been busier; that could be the real story.)

Also, is Israel seeming to play a bit more nicely with the arrival of Hollande?

[Kai]

Cain, how is power granted to different sectors of government in Israel as compared to the US? Is the president in control of the military and other executive bodies? I really don't understand the situation well enough to see what is happening here.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

Also the knesset- thats their legislative body yes? Theyre still dissolved but wont be replaced until sometime in 2013? How soon after an election do knesset members take office and what does that mean in the meantime? Ive heard of other countries dissolving their governments before but im not really sure what the implications of that are since that doesnt happen to congress.

[Anna Mae Bollocks]

So it would seem to you that the whole reference may be about their own MASSIVE egos and a messianic complex of sorts then? Interesting. 

I asked because I've had a lot of firsthand experience within the American Christian right and several close, personal American Jewish contacts (sadly, no Isreali nationals as yet) that would seem extremely left politically here, but are hardline Israeli nationalists.  There is a bit of religious crazy that runs through both groups.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like at the very least 50% of the whole Middle Eastern clusterfuck is religious crazy.

It's all about getting the temple rebuilt in Jerusalem.  It's almost never talked about in open politics. 

Christianity is essentially waiting for the temple to be rebuilt so their whole prophetic end-times scenario can get rolling and Jesus will come back.
AFAICT many Israelis are more than willing to accept fundie money from Chrisitan groups because they want the temple too, but for reasons that seem far more political and cultural to me.

This has always puzzled me because american Jews IME are horribly offended by evangelicals and the whole "Jesus is coming back and the world is gonna end and all the Jews will be converted" thing, they try to maintain a sense of shared identity with the rest of the diaspora and Israel can usually do no wrong as far as they'e concerned. Taking money from Christian groups would imply some obligation to said Christian groups, so is it a case of the ends justifying the means?

[Nephew Twiddleton]

Its probably a matter of "hey a bunch of crazy christians want to give us money to build something we wanted to build anyway." the only obligation at that point to the christians would be for jebus to appear which jews clearly dont expect to be the outcome.

[Anna Mae Bollocks]

Its probably a matter of "hey a bunch of crazy christians want to give us money to build something we wanted to build anyway." the only obligation at that point to the christians would be for jebus to appear which jews clearly dont expect to be the outcome.

Best troll EVAH.

[Verbal Mike]

I'm Israeli, so let me explain a few things in no particular order.
-For most people I know in Israel, rebuilding the temple is a looney fanatical idea. That includes some moderate religious people and a lot of American Jews. I'm not sure how representative a sample it is of anything, though.
-My impression is that Israeli organizations (mostly right-wing, often religious right) take money from the crazy American Christians because it's being offered and they don't mind using Christians that way. There's very little public talk of temple-rebuilding that I've seen, heard, or heard of.
-The powers of government are structured similarly to the German system, if that helps, except that there's just one small legislative instead of two big ones, and it's elected in a very different way (national representative elections, with no regional element). The President (Peres) is a purely representative role with no real power, except the power to pardon convicts. The Prime Minister is the real head of state, and can appoint or fire ministers and decide what parties are in the coalition. In theory the military is under the command of the Minister of Defense, which is the highest ministerial post other than PM (in terms of status). In practice there's a long history of the military getting the government to let it do what the generals want.
-In theory, the term of a Knesset (and thus a government) is 4 years long. In practice, it's been decades since a Knesset has lasted that long, iirc. This one will be the first in a long time to make it through, if it does.
-I think they take office a few weeks after the coalition agreement has been hammered out, which sometimes takes several weeks in itself. The executive just keeps working until it has to hand over the keys, more or less, pretty much like in the US.
-The Knesset didn't get dissolved after all, the back-room deal saved it and produced one of the biggest coalitions ever.
-This does not, however, stop coalition parliamentarians, and even one minister, from blaming the puny opposition for all of everyone's problems. But that's a different topic.
-A lot of young American Jews are getting sick of the contradiction in holding liberal values about everything except if Israel is involved. But yeah, the rest are weird.

Hmm. Any more questions?

[Kai]

I'm Israeli, so let me explain a few things in no particular order.
-For most people I know in Israel, rebuilding the temple is a looney fanatical idea. That includes some moderate religious people and a lot of American Jews. I'm not sure how representative a sample it is of anything, though.
-My impression is that Israeli organizations (mostly right-wing, often religious right) take money from the crazy American Christians because it's being offered and they don't mind using Christians that way. There's very little public talk of temple-rebuilding that I've seen, heard, or heard of.
-The powers of government are structured similarly to the German system, if that helps, except that there's just one small legislative instead of two big ones, and it's elected in a very different way (national representative elections, with no regional element). The President (Peres) is a purely representative role with no real power, except the power to pardon convicts. The Prime Minister is the real head of state, and can appoint or fire ministers and decide what parties are in the coalition. In theory the military is under the command of the Minister of Defense, which is the highest ministerial post other than PM (in terms of status). In practice there's a long history of the military getting the government to let it do what the generals want.
-In theory, the term of a Knesset (and thus a government) is 4 years long. In practice, it's been decades since a Knesset has lasted that long, iirc. This one will be the first in a long time to make it through, if it does.
-I think they take office a few weeks after the coalition agreement has been hammered out, which sometimes takes several weeks in itself. The executive just keeps working until it has to hand over the keys, more or less, pretty much like in the US.
-The Knesset didn't get dissolved after all, the back-room deal saved it and produced one of the biggest coalitions ever.
-This does not, however, stop coalition parliamentarians, and even one minister, from blaming the puny opposition for all of everyone's problems. But that's a different topic.
-A lot of young American Jews are getting sick of the contradiction in holding liberal values about everything except if Israel is involved. But yeah, the rest are weird.

Hmm. Any more questions?

Okay, so this is a case where the ministry of defense has shown it has the real authority over relations with Iran, and the words of the Prime Minister mean very little in in the matter. Very different from this country where the President and his staff control the military.

I agree with Cain's assessment then. While Israeli war with Iran is less imminent, it doesn't bode well for Israelies that the military is operating without public oversight.