Protests EVERYWHERE

[Cain]

It was probably a courtesy call.  Still, my guess is that the White House and Pentagon did not exactly object to this course of action, due to it actually happening while he was present.

[Cain]

Also, think about what is happening in Turkey right now.  Religious nutter with significant anti-Israeli and sometimes anti-American slant, coming under fire from his own military and secualarists, some genuine liberals, some nationalistic Kemalist nutbags, agitating for a change in regime.

Sound familiar?

US and British policy in the Middle East revolves around four planks:

1) Israel - main strategic ally in,
2) Preventing pan-Arab or Pan-Islamic unity, as to
3) Keep the oil flowing from as many multiple sources as possible, and
4) Keep the Saudis sweet and investing oil money in the UK and USA.

Islamists threaten unity under a Caliphate, and also tend to threaten oil profits with their anti-Western stances.  However, Islamists are useful against Shiite Muslims and secular nationalists, where the latter also threaten oil profits (see ya Mossedegh, Nasser).  So Islamists get a seat at the planning table when their interests coincide with US and British ones, even if those groups are violently opposed to the US or UK in general terms.  Only the planning table, however.  Once the government has fallen, they have served their purpose and it's time to put a more reliable puppet in power...a conservative with royal blood was the preferred method historically, nowadays a "secular, modernising reformer" is the preferred option.

[Junkenstein]

nowadays a "secular, modernising reformer" is the preferred option

Ahem: (Random BBC article, but illustrates the framing of the guy)

On Thursday the head of Egypt's constitutional court, Adly Mahmud Mansour, was sworn in as interim head of state, and he promised to hold elections soon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23202096

This leads me to increasingly suspect anyone described in these terms as a puppet with little actual power beyond their brand.

[Cain]

Having served as deputy head of the Constitutional Court since 1992, Mr Mansour was appointed as its president in May 2013. He only took up his post on 1 July.

So he was the deputy head of the Rubber Stamp Committee for Constitutional Rulings when Murbarak was President, in other words.

Told ya.  This is a counter-revolution.  The Muslim Brotherhood did what they were needed to do, and now the military is mopping up the resistance:

Egyptian troops have opened fire on protesters marching in support of ousted President Mohammed Morsi, killing three and wounding dozens.

[Cain]

And Egyptian soldiers are now using live ammunition on protestors.

And there is going to be another election, all legitimate like.  Morsi may even take part, if he can be found and retrieved from whatever hole he is currently in "protective custody" for.

Hooray, democracy etc.

[McGrupp]

Having served as deputy head of the Constitutional Court since 1992, Mr Mansour was appointed as its president in May 2013. He only took up his post on 1 July.

So he was the deputy head of the Rubber Stamp Committee for Constitutional Rulings when Murbarak was President, in other words.

Told ya.  This is a counter-revolution.  The Muslim Brotherhood did what they were needed to do, and now the military is mopping up the resistance:

Egyptian troops have opened fire on protesters marching in support of ousted President Mohammed Morsi, killing three and wounding dozens.

So, to put this in Detroit football terms, this is like finally replacing Matt Millen as Lions GM with Martin Mayew (Matt Millen's former vice GM).  Only with far more serious consequences for the people than shitty draft picks.

[LMNO]

Oh, joy!

"But hey, at least it's Mooslim-on-Mooslim violence, right?"
      \

[Cain]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23434809

Egypt's army chief has called for demonstrations on Friday to give the military a mandate to confront "violence and potential terrorism".

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said he was not calling for public unrest and wanted national reconciliation.

Supporters of Mohammed Morsi have been protesting against the army intervention which removed him as president of Egypt on 3 July.

But the Muslim Brotherhood dismissed Gen Sisi's call as a "threat".

Essam El-Erian, deputy chairman of the Brotherhood's political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), said: "Your threat will not stop the millions from continuing to gather."

He called Gen Sisi "a coup leader who kills women, children and those at prayer".

Wouldn't it be great if there was a system which allowed for public support to be expressed in a manner which would confer legitimacy on political actions by showing how they are preferred by the majority.  Maybe by voting for political parties with clearly expressed political views which people could freely select from.  We could call such a system "democracy".

Then the Egyptian military wouldn't have to call for protests to confer legitimacy on their actions.

[Cain]

The Egyptian military are continuing their efforts to bring democracy and freedom to Egypt, from the barrel of a gun:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23474645

More than 100 people are reported to have been killed in Cairo at a protest held by supporters of ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

Running battles are taking place around the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque and there is blood on the streets, says the BBC's Quentin Sommerville at the scene.

A doctor at a field hospital said more than 1,000 had been injured.

Early on Saturday, Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim vowed to end the sit-in at the mosque.

He said local residents had complained about the encampment and that the protest would be "brought to an end soon and in a legal manner".

Incidentally, Morsi is still in a military prison somewhere.

[Cain]

Greg Djerejian, has some excellent analysis:

Why should we care? These going-ons are taking place in far-away Arab lands, and summer entertainment might be more easily had by the pitiable Carlos Danger's vying for ink for sexting near-minors and such, like incredibly needy cretins. Well, for one, Egypt represents the beating epicenter of the entire Arab world and is the paramount, central actor in the denouement of the Arab Spring, such as it is. The enthusiasm by which Riyadh turned on the dollar spigot to Sisi's gang should tell us all we need to know regarding the reactive forces at play. As blood spills, trumped up charges that are bogus in the extreme are lobbed at Morsi, and the crack-down intensifies in general, is the risk of mass Islamic disenchantment during the most high profile episode of the Arab uprisings not manifestly clear?

Of course, this is a mug's game, and whatever the U.S. did (or didn't) each side will be dissatisfied. But the singular implications of the Egyptian uprising all but demanded a more robust American reaction defending the integrity of the ballot-box, even if just pretending to muster some spine, rather than speaking of a naked coup as constituting some enlightened "second chance" for the revolution. How is an effective putsch to accomplish that, no matter how Westernized the technocrats that will preen about the instrumentalities of government power looking to unlock IMF funds, while Sisi and the Army control the real levers?

Foggy Bottom, the Pentagon and the White House will delude themselves that we are retaining 'leverage' over Sisi and will control outcomes, but our supine compliance to date has spoken volumes. The Generals get it, and they are getting on with it. The Islamists, if Egypt doesn't descend into full-bore civil war, will remember, as they go into 'hiding'. Another chapter in Islamist rejection is being written, this time vividly with respect to participatory democracy given their victory was stolen, and while we were never meant to be central players, and indeed must be cautious, there are nonetheless times where fecklessness of this magnitude will backfire to our detriment.

Exactly right.  While I have my doubts about the depth of sincerity in regards to the Muslim Brotherhood's adoption of democracy, and how exactly their conception of it aligns with Western norms (percieved and actual), it is nevertheless the case that they were willing to play along.  Their suspect devotion was nevertheless voiced, and they played more or less according to the rules.

And then they were overthrown.  Tel Aviv and Riyadh were complicit in the coup, to some degree, and while I don't think this was the outcome Washington was angling for, that these two are allies of Washington, and that Washington meekly stood aside and let the coup occur, and would not even bring themselves to call it a coup, will be remembered.

The Muslim Brotherhood won't make that mistake again.  The next time they come to power, expect purges.  Lots of them.

[LMNO]

Helluva good point, Cain. The long game sort of insists that a democratic election should be treated as sacrosanct, inasmuch that if the people voted, they can vote AGAIN to rid themselves of it. Shifting the norm away from violence towards politics is ultimately a healthier choice.

[Junkenstein]

The Muslim Brotherhood won't make that mistake again.  The next time they come to power, expect purges.  Lots of them.

Just thinking about this point, could that be part of the strategy? If/when/where the next place they get some kind of power and they act like that then it's pretty much the perfect PR to go in guns blazing.

Chances of a Muslim Brotherhood influenced government in Syria? Not 0 by my guesses. I'd guess it to be almost inevitable at some point in a few African countries.

Cain, is there any country in Africa that has a large Chinese economic presence that could/does have a government that is/shares sympathies with the MB? If so that sounds like the perfect place for disruption and a proxy war.

[Cain]

Maybe Sudan.  But I'm not sure exactly how large the Chinese presence is there, and it's not so much the MB as it is Islamists generally.

Anyway, I know people are concerned about the spiralling violence and killings in Egypt.  Well, I am here to put you at ease.

In the wake of Wednesday's violence, the interior ministry says police have been authorised to use live ammunition "within a legal framework".

It's worth noting, underreported as it is in the press, that while the Egyptian government is killing MB members, the MB is killing Coptic Christians.  Not quite at the same level as is being inflicted on them, but then the Brotherhood doesn't exactly have a government's resources.

[Cain]

I'm sure this will help matters

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/18/egypt-clashes-muslim-brotherhood-ban

Egypt is braced for more demonstrations on Sunday, after the military-backed government signalled plans to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood, while troops cleared a Cairo mosque of Brotherhood supporters who were protesting against the removal of President Mohamed Morsi last month.

Because nothing says "democracy" quite like outlawing the political party of the previous President.

There's a lot of talk about civil war...which is very possible, for a given definition of civil war.  Usually, a civil war requires both sides be armed, not one side slaughtering the other.  So far, the Muslim Brotherhood have only seemed inclined to use violence against Coptic Christians...who tend to not be heavily armed, unlike the Egyptian Army, and so vulnerable to the sophisticated military weaponry known as "fire" and "beatings with sticks".

[tyrannosaurus vex]

Can we call it a coup yet?