Saudi Arabia set for "diplomatic drift" away from USA

[Cain]

Called it

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/22/saudi-arabia-diplomat-shift-us

    Saudi Arabia's intelligence chief has said the kingdom will make a "major shift" in dealings with the US in protest at perceived American inaction over the Syria war and its overtures to Iran, a source close to Saudi policy said on Tuesday.

    The source said that Prince Bandar bin Sultan had told European diplomats that Washington had failed to act effectively on the Syria crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was growing closer to Tehran and had failed to back Saudi support for Bahrain when it crushed a 2011 anti-government revolt.

    It was not immediately clear whether Prince Bandar's reported statements had the full backing of King Abdullah.

    In an unprecedented move last week, Saudi Arabia rejected its first offer of a seat on the UN security council and denounced the UN for failing to resolve world conflicts. The move appeared largely directed at the US.

    "The shift away from the US is a major one," the source said on Tuesday. "Saudi doesn't want to find itself any longer in a situation where it is dependent.

    "Prince Bandar told diplomats that he plans to limit interaction with the US. This happened after the US failed to take any effective action on Syria and Palestine.

    "Relations with the US have been deteriorating for a while, as Saudi feels that the US is growing closer with Iran and the US also failed to support Saudi during the Bahrain uprising."

Bandar is butthurt over Syria, and that the US wont give SA carte blance to bloodily suppress every Arab Spring uprising that doesn't come with a "House of Saud" seal of approval.

Still, this is a pretty ballsy move.  IMO, Saudi Arabia needs the US more than the other way around.  Sure, if the Kingdom went full on economic oil blockade of the USA, things would go badly, but that's an act of war, and, well...on the level below that, the US gives a certain large amount of patronage and protection to Saudi Arabia.  Or, at least, it did...the US was obviously not keen on protecting Saudi Arabia from the consequences of their own stupidity should they militarily intervene in Syria, as recently leaked war plans show.

Maybe this is just a play to panic the US diplomatic corps.  Or maybe it's as serious as they say.  Worth keeping an eye on, this

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I think they're making a big mistake.

[Junkenstein]

Curious. Could be that they no longer see themselves needing said patronage/protection, though that seems unlikely.

Taking it a step below oil blockades, could we expect to see some economic fuckery? If there's one thing about SA it's wealth and influence. I'd bet a lot of harm could be done legally to the US if SA were so inclined.

[Cain]

I think they're making a big mistake.

I'd normally agree.  But then I have a deliciously evil thought.

What if Saudi Arabia is doing this to influence US internal politics?  "Who lost Saudi Arabia?" becomes a stick to beat the Democrats with, reinforce Obama as being soft on foreign policy, losing American influence around the globe, undermine his post Bin Laden execution credentials.

American pundit class are notably self-centered, everything is about America, and the man in the White House.  No other frame of reference for understanding world events.  Saudi split invariably comes back on the President.  Saudi Arabia sprinkles the split with some leaks regarding less than entirely legal operations in the Middle East.  Make Obama look cruel, contemptous of law and incompetent, all in one.  Apply the attacks broadly enough to smear any Democratic Presidential candidate who might be put forward.

Next President is, consequently, much more amenable to Saudi interests.

If this is the play, watch how Israel reacts.  A more pliant President is also in their interests, as they are currently aligned with Riyadh, so I would expect some involvement on their part if this is the game plan.

[Q. G. Pennyworth]

Cain, you terrify me.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I think they're making a big mistake.

I'd normally agree.  But then I have a deliciously evil thought.

What if Saudi Arabia is doing this to influence US internal politics?  "Who lost Saudi Arabia?" becomes a stick to beat the Democrats with, reinforce Obama as being soft on foreign policy, losing American influence around the globe, undermine his post Bin Laden execution credentials.

Thing is, Americans almost universally hate Saudi Arabia.  I would hazard a guess that more people in America hate Saudi Arabia than hate Iran.  I think the prevailing view (maybe 70%) would be "good riddance". 

On the other hand, I am saying this without any actual numbers to back me up, and there's every possibility that you are correct.  I just have this gut feeling that this is going to backfire on Saudi Arabia.

If this is the play, watch how Israel reacts.  A more pliant President is also in their interests, as they are currently aligned with Riyadh, so I would expect some involvement on their part if this is the game plan.

If the last 15 years is any indicator, they will publicly issue orders to Obama.  Which, IMO, is a huge mistake.

[Junkenstein]

Really? I thought Iran was the next great fear?

I'd suggest that more people could be easily made to hate/fear SA though. I wonder who's got the press barons on side?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Really? I thought Iran was the next great fear?

People are, believe it or not, all feared-out.

Fear is just another spectacle to Americans.  This one has sort of become passe.

[Cain]

A lot of Americans do hate Saudi, it's true.  But among the elite...well, Saudi Arabia does a lot of business with Texas.  Texan billionaires and associated commercial interests they may have.  Banking, oil, property...that's a lot of friends one can buy.

The association with Texan business also means they tend to be friendly with certain segments of the Republican Party.  If I were shopping for a more pliant President for Riyadh, I might start there.

And I suspect even people who hate Saudi Arabia can overcome that hate if a more tempting target, in the form of a black President, were involved.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

And I suspect even people who hate Saudi Arabia can overcome that hate if a more tempting target, in the form of a black President, were involved.

Thing is, the next dem is Hillary Clinton, who none of this will stick to.  Or do you think it will?

[Cain]

    Really? I thought Iran was the next great fear?

    I'd suggest that more people could be easily made to hate/fear SA though. I wonder who's got the press barons on side?

Iran's still up there, but the thing is, Saudi Arabia has been a less than reliable partner for a while now.  You know, all those jihadis they keep arming, those mosques they keep funding, that money which helped create a huge property bubble which was from their oil profits...

Iran was America's original Mid East pet.  The Shah did the dirty work to keep the rest of the region amenable to American interests and the Gulf clear of pesky nationalist types.  Of course, that all went to shit when the Shah was overthrown, but even then covert contacts with Iran persisted.

Selling an Iranian-American alliance in a virulently anti-Iranian press would be another story entirely...especially if Saudi Arabia were agitating in the background.  This may be the international context which links into the domestic context scenario I proffered above.  By breaking off with America, then subverting their back-up alliance, it's possible that a future American President may come grovelling to Riyadh.  And that would mean the alliance is back on, with terms much more favourable to Saudi Arabia than the currently existing treaties and promises.

[Cain]

   

Thing is, the next dem is Hillary Clinton, who none of this will stick to.  Or do you think it will?

She was in charge of the State Department for the first term, which undermined American power through the mixed signals of craven weakness and arrogance, leading Saudi Arabia to no longer trust American leadership and thus planting the seeds for the current crisis in relations.

Or so the story will go.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

And I suspect even people who hate Saudi Arabia can overcome that hate if a more tempting target, in the form of a black President, were involved.

Thing is, the next dem is Hillary Clinton, who none of this will stick to.  Or do you think it will?

She was in charge of the State Department for the first term, which undermined American power through the mixed signals of craven weakness and arrogance, leading Saudi Arabia to no longer trust American leadership and thus planting the seeds for the current crisis in relations.

Or so the story will go.

Thing is, Hillary Clinton isn't known in the USA for being a wimp.  Even her worst detractors don't go down that road...BUT, even though Saudi Arabia isn't run by fools, they DO have a huge cultural bias against women, and they might think that's viable.

[Cain]

Well, Hillary also isn't known for sleeping with women, yet the rumours persist about that too.

Reality doesn't matter when a smear campaign is on.  Hillary is a Democrat, and Democrats are weak.  Hillary isn't personally weak, but that just means she is arrogant and high handed.  Maybe the scenario will be Hillary was the dominatrix and Obama was the weak one?  The details can be fudged around, blame can be apportioned as necessary depending on the precise details.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Well, Hillary also isn't known for sleeping with women, yet the rumours persist about that too.

Reality doesn't matter when a smear campaign is on.  Hillary is a Democrat, and Democrats are weak.  Hillary isn't personally weak, but that just means she is arrogant and high handed.  Maybe the scenario will be Hillary was the dominatrix and Obama was the weak one?  The details can be fudged around, blame can be apportioned as necessary depending on the precise details.

Point. 

I don't think it's going to work, though.  The GOP is about as far into the shitter as you can go, to the point where people have stopped taking the time to trash-talk Hillary, which I never thought I'd live to see.

THAT BEING SAID:  The American people have the attention span of a house cat.  It won't work now, but it might work in 6 weeks.