Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[Cain]

It's not so much a prediction as "paying attention" and "knowledge of how countries like Ukraine work".  When you pay attention to the fact that Ukraine is an oligarchical political-economy, it stands to reason that major political actors, such as Tymoshenko, are also oligarchs.  They may be clever about it, like she was, or they may be stupid and ostentatious like Yanukovych (who allowed his family to publically flaunt their wealth and used to boast to foreign leaders about his riches).

It also explains why the protests got backing, aside from US geopolitical interests.  Because an oligarchical system runs on bribes and insider dealing on government contracts.  As the economic condition of the Ukraine worsened and those opportunities for corruption dried up, it meant more and more oligarchs were willing to throw in against the President*.

The major possible exception to this is Klitschko, who of course made his money in a far more honest business.  I am warming to Klitschko, not least because Asst. Sec-State Nuland and the US Ambassador in Kiev don't want him to be a major player.  "Go do his homework" indeed.  However, with Tymoshenko now out of prison, his own support base may be divided, which doesn't bode well.

*A fun game you can play here is to obtain a copy of Bueno De Mesquita's Logic of Political Survival and Diego Gambetta's Codes of the Underworld.  While this isn't the Unified Field Theory Of Politics In Corrupt States, it's pretty damn close.  It's also pretty applicable to US and British politics, unsurprisingly.

[Junkenstein]

Those both sound like they're well worth a read, thanks. I'll try and track down copies as soon as I can.

[Cain]

Should be available via Amazon, though Mesquita's Dictator's Handbook may be better for general reading.  Same material as the above book, just for a non political science audience. 

As for the Berkut, lots of them were loyal Yanukovych supporters, so no surprise they're getting disbanded.  Senior Berkut officials liked to use the officers to harass and extort people to line their own paychecks and criminal enterprises.  But these are austerity times for Ukraine...both it's government and its actual economy.  Remove a player, remove a burden on state expenses.

[East Coast Hustle]

I have to take a second to point out that politics is probably the only line of "legitimate" work that could be said to be less honest than professional boxing.

[Cain]

Yeah, the irony of that description was not lost on me either.

[Cain]

Looks like scuffles between pro-Russian and pro-state forces are occuring in Crimea.  "Gunmen" have seized the Parliament building, and "Ukrainian security forces" have cordoned the seized buildings off.

In all likelihood, both the gunmen and the security forces are a mix of legitimate law enforcement personnel and militias, and given the political situation in the Crimea, it's not entirely clear where the autonomous republic's own loyalties lie.

[Junkenstein]

Shits getting all kind of real.

Gunmen wandering around airports "Protecting planes". Seems to be a total mix of militias, the military and anyone with fantasies of being one of those is getting in on the act now. Accusations of Russian invasion flying as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Ukraine's interior minister has accused Russian forces of occupying Sevastopol airport in the autonomous region of Crimea.

Arsen Avakov called their presence an "armed invasion".

But Russia's Black Sea Fleet has denied that Russian servicemen are taking part.

The other main Crimean airport, Simferopol, was also occupied by armed men on Friday. The men are thought to be pro-Russia militia.

Armed men patrol at the airport in Simferopol, Crimea on 28 February 2014
It was unclear who the men in Simferopol were - they arrived at the airport in the early hours

Almost guaranteed to escalate, surely?

[Cain]

Yup.  Keep an eye on Dnipropetrovsk as well.

It has the perfect ethnic mix in order to become the Sarajevo of Ukraine.  No-one's got a clear majority there, and while it is, broadly speaking, in the east and south, it's close enough to Kiev for the central government to try and lay claim.

[Cain]

Turns out the gunmen who "seized" the Crimean parliament were in fact the second armed group to take over the Parliament that day.  Earlier on, Crimean Tartars had blockaded the Parliament.

Shortly before the Crimean Republic was to have a referendum on staying in Ukraine or possibly joining Russia.

The gunmen took control and basically told the Tartars to sod off, which they duly did. 

Militias are also controlling the borders currently.

[Telarus]

My roommate was talking about Dnipropetrovsk as a possible strike point for Russia, if it comes to that.... interesting.

[Cain]

It's also got a strategic position and is Ukraine's 4th most populated city.  Interestingly, it has a very high number of Jews, something like a third of the population.  Given how some of the Euromaidan opposition feel about Jews, we might see them appealing to Russia for protection.

Svoboda has been described as an anti-Semitic and sometimes a Neo-Nazi party by international newspapers,[24][82][98] organizations that monitor hate speech,[99] Jewish organizations,[100][101] and political opponents.[41]
Political scientist Tadeusz A. Olszański writes that the social-nationalist ideology which Svoboda formerly adhered to has included "openly racist rhetoric" concerning 'white supremacy' since its establishment, and that comparisons with National Socialism are legitimized by its history; however, Svoboda's policy documents contain no racist elements.[2] According to Der Spiegel, "anti-Semitism is part of the extremist party's platform," which rejects certain minority and human rights.[24] The paper writes that Svoboda's earlier "Social-National Party" title was an "intentional reference to Adolf Hitler's National Socialist party," and that a Svoboda youth leader distributed Nazi propaganda written by Joseph Goebbels in 2013.[24] According to journalist Michael Goldfarb, Svoboda's platform calls for a Ukraine that is "one race, one nation, one Fatherland,"[dubious – discuss] and criticized the party for honoring the Waffen-SS Galicia (of which the historical role of the unit is contested).[98]

In 2004 party leader Tyahnybok was expelled from the Our Ukraine parliamentary faction for a speech calling for Ukrainians to fight against a "Muscovite-Jewish mafia."[31][39] Svoboda advisor Yuriy Mykhalchyshyn established a "'Joseph Goebbels Political Research Centre" in 2005, later changing "Joseph Goebbels" to "Ernst Jünger."[2] Mykhalchyshyn wrote a book in 2010 citing works by Nazi theorists Ernst Röhm, Gregor Strasser and Goebbels.[39][82][102] Elsewhere Mykhalchyshyn referred to the Holocaust as a "period of Light in history".[103]
Andreas Umland, a political scientist at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy,[51] has asserted that "Svoboda is a racist party promoting explicitly ethnocentric and anti-Semitic ideas".[104] He also believes that internally, Svoboda "is much more radical and xenophobic than what we see".[62] However, Umland has also stated that he believes the party will continue to become more moderate over time, stating that "there's a belief that Svoboda will change, once in the Verkhovna Rada, and that they may become proper national democrats".[39] Olexiy Haran, also a political science professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, says "There is a lot of misunderstanding surrounding Svoboda" and that the party is not fascist, but radical.[

Also http://www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-mccain-far-right-svoboda-anti-semitic-protests

However, in 2004 leader Oleh Tyahnybok gave a speech attacking what he called "the Moscow-Jewish mafia ruling Ukraine" and in another speech declared: "the Moskali, Germans, Kikes and other scum who wanted to take away our Ukrainian state."

Despite the controversy his statements attracted in the West, Tyahnybok was voted Person of the Year by readers of Ukrainian news magazine Korrespondent last year.

In another outburst from the party their deputy chief, Ihor Miroshnychenko, wrote an anti-Semitic attack on Mila Kunis on Facebook: "Kunis is not Ukrainian, she is a Yid. She is proud of it, so Star of David be with her."

[Junkenstein]

Escalation continues:
http://rt.com/news/navy-chief-ukraine-crimea-485/

Rear admiral Denis Berezovsky, appointed as head of Ukraine's Navy forces just two days ago, has sworn allegiance to the people of Crimea. Taking his oath, regional Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov announced creating Crimea's Navy.

The region's Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov announced the creation of Crimea's Navy forces and appointed Berezovsky its head.

"The Republic will have its own navy, which will be commanded by rear admiral Berezovsky," Aksyonov told the journalists Sunday.

"Subsequently, this day will be considered the birthday of the naval forces of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea," he added.

"All Navy troops dislocated in Sevastopol are ordered to disregard any commands coming from Ukraine's new self-proclaimed authorities," the PM also declared. "Do not take any orders of using arms till my personal instructions."

Aksyonov promised that "all soldiers, who'll swear allegiance to the Crimean people, will retain their allowance, health and social benefits, military rank and position."

Video and more at link.

Overall, another very decisive step towards nothing good, probably.

[The Johnny]

my national newspapers are kind of skiddish on the details, but the ambiguity lies between the USA militarly intervening OR boycotting the G8 summit 

is this really internatonal clusterfuck time or nobody knows yet?

[Cain]

Ukraine threatened Russia with nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately for them, they don't have nuclear weapons.  They do, however, have nuclear reactors.  And given the posturing of the US and Iran over the last few years, have opened the door to legitimising Russian military action in the country, subjecting them to international sanctions and having their military and nuclear program scrutinized for forever.

Dumb move, really.

As for international clusterfuck...it's heading that way.  So far, the US is not threatening military action in Ukraine, but you do not put $5 billion on the table to pull Ukraine into a western orbit only for smelly Russian peasants with rifles to ruin it all.

[Junkenstein]

Yeah, the Nuclear thing was unwise to say the least. At least North Korea had the sense to make the threat plausible.

Somewhat unrelated:
http://weaselzippers.us/177396-flashback-sarah-palin-mocked-for-saying-russia-could-invade-ukraine/

Hmmm, look who was right.

Via Foreign Policy (10/22/08):

Speaking Tuesday at a rally in a Reno, Nevada, Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin had a little fun with her counterpart on the Democratic ticket, thanking Joe Biden for warning Barack Obama's supporters to "gird your loins" for an international crisis if the Illinois senator wins.

Palin helpfully offered four scenarios for such a crisis, one of which was this strange one:

"After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next."

There's a speech writer somewhere that just earned a hell of a raise for that.