Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[Random Probability]

I've been thinking a little more about the technology mentioned at the start of the thread. I assume it's already easy enough to pull of something similar in other nations. Got a horrible feeling we will see more of this kind of thing soon. Greece, maybe? I would have considered Egypt as a potential adopter but I'm not sure if the tech is able to distinguish between loyal activists and evil protesters. As a lot of demonstrations usually have an opposing demo going on nearby, it could be quite amusing to see pro-X supporters being told that they're attending a mass disruption and must now go to jail.

It should be noted that every country has this capability currently.  It's child's play to monitor a cell tower and identify every phone registered through it.  Meta data such as the time the phones registered on the tower, signal strength, and GPS location will readily identify individuals in Group A or Group B.  For bonus points you can do traffic analysis on, say, Group A and discover exactly who the ring leaders are and who are just hangers-on.  That way you don't clog up court time trying to put everyone on trial.  Bash the casual supports with fines which can't be fought and throw the leaders in the clink.  Problems tend to go away that way.

[Cain]

Opposition have turned down significant concessions, including the post of PM for Arseniy Yatsenyuk and deputy PM to Vitali Klitschko.

They really think they can go all the way. 

But the BBC's David Stern, in Kiev, says the opposition - confident in its position - appears to have taken these offers as a sign of weakness on Mr Yanukovych's part, and is forging ahead with the campaign to unseat him.

I hope they realize they're taking massive risks in doing so.

Although I am warming to the idea of a revolution in Ukraine, if only because I may have made some enemies among the ruling elite there.  At the very least, I got their children expelled from the UK and facing criminal charges....

[Telarus]

I've been following J Fox Circe's coverage on FB. Cain, any odds on 'western' covert action to instigate or accelerate the Ukraine situation (as kickback for Russia throwing a stick into the bike wheels in Syria)? Just a random though my roommate had...

[Cain]

Probably.  I haven't seen anything overt, but given the work that went into the Orange Revolution, I'm sure there are still assets from those time involving themselves in current activities.

[Telarus]

Huh, well good to know we didn't have such a crazy idea then.

[Cain]

The Guardian's reporting on the Orange Revolution as it happened is pretty instructive.  It wouldn't be unfair to notice that Yulia Tymoshenko was the designated (hand-chosen?) leader of the revolution, and would probably be at the head of this one as well, if she were not already in jail.  In fact, I suspect one of the reasons the opposition refused the government deal was because Tymoshenko wouldn't be part of the government, and while Klitschko certainly has all the right politics, he doesn't have the kind of blat Yulia brings to the table, which could be used to move the country to a pro-EU position while not overly antagonising an obviously suspicious Russia.

[Junkenstein]

Shit continues:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25908643

Ukraine's justice minister has warned anti-government protesters occupying her ministry she will call for a state of emergency if they do not leave.

Olena Lukash told local media she would ask the National Security and Defence Council to introduce the measures.

Protesters seized the building in Kiev late on Sunday and set up barricades outside with bags of snow.

Unrest is spreading across Ukraine, with activists taking over municipal buildings in up to 10 cities.

Buildings have come under attack even in eastern areas which have traditionally had closer ties with Russia and where President Viktor Yanukovych has enjoyed strong support.

But Ms Lukash told Inter TV channel: "If the protesters do not leave the justice ministry building... I will ask the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine to impose the state of emergency."

She said water had been sprayed inside the building, "turning it into a veritable ice rink".

I'm starting to really admire this use of water in protesting.

[Cain]

The Crimean regional parliament is demanding that the President crack down hard on protestors, and has expressed servere displeasure at the negotiations thus far.

Chances of this putsch attempt turning into civil war - slowly rising.  I'm starting to think Yulia Tymoshenko needs to out of jail, she's possibly the only unifying figure who can appeal to the east and west of the country.

[Junkenstein]

I can't see that happening quickly though, if indeed at all. The other thing is whether she will actually be able to unite east/west. I'm guessing not before getting shot.

Which, subsequently, may turn out to be a unifying event. A long and happy life is probably not on the cards.

[Junkenstein]

Azarov offering to resign now. I doubt it's nearly over though.

[Cain]

They already offered everything but the Presidency.

I don't know how legit this news site is, but apparently the city of Sevastopol is threatening to break away from Ukraine and set up a ""Federal State of Ruthenia/Core-Russia".

My Ukrainian source also informs me there are rumours that nationalists have seized weapon depots.  Just rumours right now.

[Junkenstein]

It wouldn't shock me if they happened to be true. Nationalists tend to have a bit of thing for any kind of weapons.

[Random Probability]

So what are the odds that Putin's folks are leading some of these "nationalist" groups seizing weapons?

I want to say it's our folks priming the pump, but the current administrations in the West (I'm looking at Obama) have trouble even finding Ukraine on a map, let alone being pro-active enough to accomplish anything useful (such as arming insurgents for the coming civil war).

Any clue how the permanent folks in the community are working this?  Events are progressing at an accelerated rate now, and that says there is a plan behind it.  Grassroots protests peter out too quickly for this to be a purely self organized event.

[Cain]

Obama doesn't need to find it on a map.  He has people for that.  Besides, the CIA and Freedom House and all the rest were there a decade ago, stirring it up.  And John McCain has been seen palling around with the head of the largest Neo-Nazi party in Ukraine.  As in, within the last month.  Talking about "freedom", hilariously.

And the Ukranian skinheads hate Russia.  It's a cultural thing.  The west is more inclined towards Poland, their history is one of anticommunism and resistance to Russian rule.  The east is aligned with Russia culturally...their history is one of resisting rampaging Wehrmacht units.  All the skinhead heroes earnt their dubious positions of "honour" by slaughtering Russians and Communists by the hundreds.

Plus the people who back the current President are, at least in some cases, related to Putin.  Viktor Medvedchuk, for example.  If the Russians were behind it, the Neo-Nazis would still be present, probably, but they'd be much weaker.  As things stand, they're the tip of the spear for the opposition forces, and they threaten to get really out of hand.   Putin can be accused of many things, but he's not as stupid as we are.  He doesn't arm tomorrow's enemies today, not to this extent anyway.

[Random Probability]

I actually mean it was Obama's people who couldn't find it on a map, but that's splitting hairs.

I was viewing the arming of insurgents as a first step in rooting out the opposition.  A bit along the lines of "the tallest nail gets hammered" principle.  If pro-Russia provocateurs can't make any headway against the tide of pro-West provocateurs, it would make sense to come down on them like the wrath of Beardy McCloud.  You know, as an example to others.

But that was just a passing thought.  My knowledge of Russian thought processes is limited to things like that business in Lebanon in the 80's, and the way they deal with Chechen wackos.