Author Topic: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.  (Read 115241 times)

Cain

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #705 on: August 25, 2016, 04:29:39 pm »
I'd actually blocked the existence of that thing from my memory.

The Good Reverend Roger

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #706 on: August 25, 2016, 04:30:31 pm »
I'd actually blocked the existence of that thing from my memory.

I am quite sure it happened, but my brain won't tell me about it.
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Junkenstein

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #707 on: August 25, 2016, 05:04:23 pm »
I AM disappointed that Farage cut his mustache off, though.

I'm more surprised that it wasn't strategically cut to resemble Chaplin's.
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Junkenstein

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #708 on: August 25, 2016, 08:57:49 pm »
Nah, not Lembit.  That was the Romanian twins, and Romania is a staunch NATO ally.  Well, a NATO ally anyway.

I was thinking of  Mike Hancock.  When Arron Banks, the UKIP financier, had problems regarding his wife's visa, it was Hancock who interceded on his behalf.  Hancock had a four year affair with Katia Zatuliveter.  She had close contacts with someone in the Russian Embassy, who MI5 had fingered as an SVR officer.

Forgot about that one.  It's getting hard to remember all the sleaze in the past few years.
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Faust

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #709 on: August 29, 2016, 03:08:58 pm »
The possibility that another country could be trying to interfere with the political process of the US is beyond the realms of possibility.
Its laughable.

Furthermore accusations that said countries could be trying to bias opinion in the direction of one candidate over an other with the DNC hacks is not only ridiculous, but a slander against Donand Trump who is clearly representative of America, and American values.

Please, do not click the below link as it is puerile and baseless.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-says-foreign-hackers-penetrated-000000175.html
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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #710 on: August 29, 2016, 03:17:12 pm »

Furthermore accusations that said countries could be trying to bias opinion in the direction of one candidate over an other with the DNC hacks is not only ridiculous, but a slander against Donand Trump who is clearly representative of America, and American values.



Thought spying was an American value.
Poe's law ;)

Faust

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #711 on: August 29, 2016, 03:40:59 pm »
So is selling an election to the highest bidder. Democracy is a communist idea.
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Junkenstein

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #712 on: September 02, 2016, 10:29:52 am »
Daily heil reported and retracted allegations that trumps wife used to be a hooker.

Should be some decent aftermath here.
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Cain

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #713 on: September 03, 2016, 03:59:41 pm »
While liberals are smugly swapping anecdotes about how great the future Taco Empire will be on Twitter and Facebook, Hillary's lead is dropping

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-as-the-race-tightens-dont-assume-the-electoral-college-will-save-clinton/

Quote
The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has tightened. Clinton, whose lead over Trump exceeded 8 percentage points at her peak following the Democratic convention, is ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points today, according to our polls-only forecast.

The tighter margins in the polls, which reflect a loss of support for Clinton along with a modest improvement for Trump, have come gradually over the past few weeks. The evidence of a tightening has become more widespread, however, and it’s particularly clear in polls that surveyed the race just after the conventions and are retaking its temperature now. Fox News’s national poll, for instance, had Clinton up by 9 points just after the conventions (in the version of the poll that included third-party candidates) and has her up by 2 points now.

And now with Clinton being crucified again over the emails, I would not be surprised to see Trump start polling equal with her sometime this month.

I still think Hillary is a fundamentally stronger candidate, in the long run.  But also consider this: there's lots of reports that Trump isn't bothering to even prepare for the debates.

Lets assume for a moment that this is a lie, and Trump is doing nothing all day except prepare for the debates. It could lead to Clinton underestimating him in the debates, and Trump doing surprisingly well - maybe not enough to win in traditional terms, but enough for everyone to go "Trump did surprisingly well" and dominate the media narrative.

Then throw in the October Surprise.  There will be an October Surprise, Roger Stone is too heavily involved in the campaign for there to be otherwise.  And Stone has allegedly been talking with Wikileaks, and Assange hates Clinton like poison.

All I'm saying is, there are some pretty negative signs out there, but people aren't paying attention to the polls so much lately.  And if you can swing the perception, even temporarily, you may even be able to negate Clinton's advantages with minorities and women come election day.

The Good Reverend Roger

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #714 on: September 05, 2016, 06:30:22 am »
Interesting thing:  when Obama on his first term, a bunch of neocons I knew turned into conspiracy freaks.  Now I'm watching berners babble about thermite in the 911 attacks, etc.

Makes sense, given that conspiracy freaks most often are people who feel they have no control over their environment. 
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

 "Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Pergamos

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #715 on: September 05, 2016, 07:57:47 am »
I feel like conspiracy theories have expiration dates, nobody should really care who killed JFK anymore.  9/11 is getting close to irrelevant, that the Republicans are up to no good is a given, does it matter, at all, if they provoked a war by blowing up a building?  They've already made it clear they don't really need an excuse for wars.

Cain

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #716 on: September 07, 2016, 09:28:51 am »
While liberals are smugly swapping anecdotes about how great the future Taco Empire will be on Twitter and Facebook, Hillary's lead is dropping

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-as-the-race-tightens-dont-assume-the-electoral-college-will-save-clinton/

Quote
The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has tightened. Clinton, whose lead over Trump exceeded 8 percentage points at her peak following the Democratic convention, is ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points today, according to our polls-only forecast.

The tighter margins in the polls, which reflect a loss of support for Clinton along with a modest improvement for Trump, have come gradually over the past few weeks. The evidence of a tightening has become more widespread, however, and it’s particularly clear in polls that surveyed the race just after the conventions and are retaking its temperature now. Fox News’s national poll, for instance, had Clinton up by 9 points just after the conventions (in the version of the poll that included third-party candidates) and has her up by 2 points now.

And now with Clinton being crucified again over the emails, I would not be surprised to see Trump start polling equal with her sometime this month.

I still think Hillary is a fundamentally stronger candidate, in the long run.  But also consider this: there's lots of reports that Trump isn't bothering to even prepare for the debates.

Lets assume for a moment that this is a lie, and Trump is doing nothing all day except prepare for the debates. It could lead to Clinton underestimating him in the debates, and Trump doing surprisingly well - maybe not enough to win in traditional terms, but enough for everyone to go "Trump did surprisingly well" and dominate the media narrative.

Then throw in the October Surprise.  There will be an October Surprise, Roger Stone is too heavily involved in the campaign for there to be otherwise.  And Stone has allegedly been talking with Wikileaks, and Assange hates Clinton like poison.

All I'm saying is, there are some pretty negative signs out there, but people aren't paying attention to the polls so much lately.  And if you can swing the perception, even temporarily, you may even be able to negate Clinton's advantages with minorities and women come election day.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/

CNN poll has Trump 2 points above Clinton.

Cain

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #717 on: September 07, 2016, 10:06:40 am »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/intelligence-community-investigating-covert-russian-influence-operations-in-the-united-states/2016/09/04/aec27fa0-7156-11e6-8533-6b0b0ded0253_story.html?postshare=7941473206496666&tid=ss_fb

Quote
U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies are investigating what they see as a broad covert Russian operation in the United States to sow public distrust in the upcoming presidential election and in U.S. political institutions, intelligence and congressional officials said.

The aim is to understand the scope and intent of the Russian campaign, which incorporates ­cyber-tools to hack systems used in the political process, enhancing Russia’s ability to spread disinformation.

The effort to better understand Russia’s covert influence operations is being coordinated by James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence. “This is something of concern for the DNI,” said Charles Allen, a former longtime CIA officer who has been briefed on some of these issues. “It is being addressed.”

A Russian influence operation in the United States “is something we’re looking very closely at,” said one senior intelligence official who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Officials also are examining potential disruptions to the election process, and the FBI has alerted state and local officials to potential cyberthreats.

The official cautioned that the intelligence community is not saying it has “definitive proof” of such tampering, or any Russian plans to do so. “But even the hint of something impacting the security of our election system would be of significant concern,” the official said. “It’s the key to our democracy, that people have confidence in the election system.”

The Kremlin’s intent may not be to sway the election in one direction or another, officials said, but to cause chaos and provide propaganda fodder to attack U.S. democracy-building policies around the world, particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

Junkenstein

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #718 on: September 07, 2016, 10:48:19 am »
RE Russia, if disinformation and disruption is the main goal, are there any other upcoming elections/political crap in general that Russia is like to try the same with? Would guess to see some influence in French elections, ex Soviet block territories, probably turkey, Syria and mid east in general to help anti us sentiment.

Suspect solid proof to be a bastard to find so better to predict a pattern of upcoming fuckery as weak proof substitute?


Trump ahead in any poll - concerning. Small bet on Oct surprise being Clinton email based. Question is what trumps will be. Will be amused if Clinton parades the owners of companies he Fucked over and still owes money to. Money is on rent boys though.
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Cain

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Re: Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.
« Reply #719 on: September 07, 2016, 11:11:55 am »
Regarding other elections, the Front Nationale in France is extensively funded by Russian sources.  AfD, the German right-wing group which gave Merkel a black eye this week, has extensive links with Putin's United Russia - their youth wings are very interconnected.

The CNN poll has come under fire for...unusual methodology.  However, even when this is taken into account, such as with MSNBC's recalculation, Clinton only has a 2-3% lead.  As Nate Silver has been keen to point out, there a huge amount (20%) of undecided voters, which makes the election extremely volatile and hard to predict.  And like all chaotic systems, it is extremely sensitive to changes in current conditions. 

When the Trump campaign drops their October surprise, they may easily wipe out Clinton's lead entirely.