Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I'm interested to see, if they ever reveal it, this info which shows the chain of events linking the DNC hack to Wikileaks, which the IC claims to have.

Revealing sources and methods is usually bad, but this is politically contentious enough that it may require it for there to be any sort of resolution.

Isn't there some shit about them having found the middlemen with respect to the Russians?

[Cain]

Yes, but they haven't revealed exactly what.  And for once, Assange wasn't being obstinate git...he does admit that the initial hack could be Russia, but says his own source definitely wasn't connected to the Russian government.  Of course, any agency with a couple of brain cells to rub together wouldn't send their info from a spook@gru.ru email account, they'd use cut-outs for plausible deniability, and I can see the value to the intelligence community of being able to monitor these covert assets.

But given that the publically available info on APT28 isn't conclusive to make it as a GRU asset (it's a highly likely supposition, much like the ODNI report released tonight, but not beyond a shadow of a doubt), I think the IC have to reveal what they know, including the information on Putin supposedly ordering this.  I still find that suspicious myself, that specific claim...I always had a model of Russian politics that had factions within the Russian military forcing Putin's hand due to their radicalised worldview, but I'm willing to say I'm wrong, if the spooks put their cards on the table and say precisely why.

[Junkenstein]

Putin making a televised confession of shenanigans around now would be great.

I suspect him presenting a detailed slideshow breaking it all down would have absolutely no impact on the political discourse. Just enough people are now married to trump to let him completely fail. Though you are assured not to like the few areas he succeeds in. For want of a better term.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Putin making a televised confession of shenanigans around now would be great.

I suspect him presenting a detailed slideshow breaking it all down would have absolutely no impact on the political discourse. Just enough people are now married to trump to let him completely fail. Though you are assured not to like the few areas he succeeds in. For want of a better term.

Putin is gonna keep that in his vest pocket.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Yes, but they haven't revealed exactly what.  And for once, Assange wasn't being obstinate git...he does admit that the initial hack could be Russia, but says his own source definitely wasn't connected to the Russian government.  Of course, any agency with a couple of brain cells to rub together wouldn't send their info from a spook@gru.ru email account, they'd use cut-outs for plausible deniability, and I can see the value to the intelligence community of being able to monitor these covert assets.

But given that the publically available info on APT28 isn't conclusive to make it as a GRU asset (it's a highly likely supposition, much like the ODNI report released tonight, but not beyond a shadow of a doubt), I think the IC have to reveal what they know, including the information on Putin supposedly ordering this.  I still find that suspicious myself, that specific claim...I always had a model of Russian politics that had factions within the Russian military forcing Putin's hand due to their radicalised worldview, but I'm willing to say I'm wrong, if the spooks put their cards on the table and say precisely why.

wait, what?  I was under the impression that Putin pretty much has everything in the Russian government under his thumb.

[Cain]

Nah, the GRU has been flirting with ultranationalist and fascist elements for years.  Alexander Dugin's the man here...who fell from grace in 2014 after calling for Putin to institute "total fascism", and then calling him a traitor when he did not.  Dugin was a professor at Moscow State...now the Russian military pay him for his geopolitical gobbledegook.  The ultra-right in Russia hates that Putin isn't doing more in Ukraine...and probably engineered the assassination of Nemtsov last year (FSB roundup of Chechens after the assassination was telling...Kadyrov also flirts with far-right elements, and has sent men to fight in the Donbas).

Basically, the GRU is using the far-right to fight the Ukrainian proxy war on the cheap.  The GRU is however, protecting at least one notable fascist (Dugin).  The GRU are also believed to be the people pulling the strings on the ATP28 hackers.  There's also a lot of second tier people around Putin (like Kadyrov) who hate that they're not in the inner circle.

But it's just a theory, a feeling.  I could be wrong.  But if I wanted to lock Putin into an adversarial relationship with the West, one which increases the strength of the ultra-nationalists and the military into the bargain, that's what I'd do in their place: run crazy, off the books disruption operations with not a care for getting caught and let the chaos do the work for me.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Makes sense.  The CIA did that for 50 years.

[Cain]

Here's a primer on Dugin: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/27/geopolitics-russia-mackinder-eurasia-heartland-dugin-ukraine-eurasianism-manifest-destiny-putin/

In particular, note this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

The book declares that "the battle for the world rule of [ethnic] Russians" has not ended and Russia remains "the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution." The Eurasian Empire will be constructed "on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."[1]

Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1]

The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization' of all of Europe".

and

Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics."

This book was practically required reading in the Russian military in the late 90s.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

whoa.   

*off to read*

[Cain]

And if this doesn't convince you that there is an unholy mix of populist/right-radical/neo-fascist traditionalism and internet jackassery, then nothing will



(Incidentally, Breitibart have been running a fake news story about a church in Dortmund being burned down by roving Islamic gangs from Syria.  Meanwhile, /pol/ is cranking out memes to circumvent German anti-Nazi laws in support of AfD, a party aligned with Putin's own United Russia).

[Cain]

Nothing to see here

http://gizmodo.com/trump-just-dismissed-the-people-in-charge-of-maintainin-1790908093

According to an official within the Department of Energy, this past Friday, the President-elect's team instructed the head of the National Nuclear Security Administration and his deputy to clean out their desks when Trump takes office on January 20th.

The NNSA is the $12 billion-a-year agency that "maintains and enhances the safety, security, and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile." It's unclear when the two officials will be replaced.

Traditionally, all political appointees of an outgoing presidential administration turn in resignation letters effective on noon of inauguration day, January 20. But appointees in key positions—like the people who make sure our nukes work—are often asked to stay on in their roles until a replacement can be found and confirmed by the Senate, helping ensure a smooth transition and allowing our government to continue functioning.

[LMNO]

Perhaps this is all a devious form of fiscal stimulus -- people decide there's no use saving money anymore since we'll all be dead soon, spend a whole bunch, and then the economy recovers.

[Cain]

I know a lot of people who are freaking out about this because of Mantrumpian Candidate theories, and to an extent I can't blame them.

That said, I think this is about purging and loyalty, with added leverage for his appointees.  He's clearing out everything to the point that Congress will have to rubber-stamp his candidates just to get government working again.  Clearing out critical appointees like this just gives him an even better position for getting his wanted people in (and Trump thinks he is a brilliant negotiator, remember).

As for who those appointees will be...well, that will tell us more about what Trump is.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Nothing to see here

http://gizmodo.com/trump-just-dismissed-the-people-in-charge-of-maintainin-1790908093

According to an official within the Department of Energy, this past Friday, the President-elect's team instructed the head of the National Nuclear Security Administration and his deputy to clean out their desks when Trump takes office on January 20th.

The NNSA is the $12 billion-a-year agency that "maintains and enhances the safety, security, and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile." It's unclear when the two officials will be replaced.

Traditionally, all political appointees of an outgoing presidential administration turn in resignation letters effective on noon of inauguration day, January 20. But appointees in key positions—like the people who make sure our nukes work—are often asked to stay on in their roles until a replacement can be found and confirmed by the Senate, helping ensure a smooth transition and allowing our government to continue functioning.

Weird that he's in such a damn hurry.

[Cain]

The NNSA are denying the story, so we will have to wait and see on that.  However it is definitely true for all of Obama's ambassadorial picks.