UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Vanadium Gryllz]

So the date for the EU referendum has been announced. Whereupon the decision as to whether Britain will stay a part of the EU or leave to chart its own course will be decided by the masses.

I really have no idea as to what the pros and cons are for each choice. I am leaning towards 'in' right now - I think that the federalisation (is that the right word?) of Europe is probably a good thing.

Then again, I wonder how the Germans feel about that.
Also Cameron wants us to stay in and being in agreement with the Cambot makes me nervous.

I also get the sense that we're fucked either way.


What do you guys think?

[Cain]

All leaving the EU accomplishes is meaning we have no say in how it is run while still having to abide by the vast majority of its rules.  Unless we want massive tariffs on all our trade in Europe.

[Q. G. Pennyworth]

Doesn't it also put the UK on the Euro?

[Cain]

Doesn't it also put the UK on the Euro?

Nope, we have an opt-out clause for that.

Ultimately we will have to join the Euro or leave the EU at some point....but probably not for another 20+ years, at this rate.  We're still fuming about being signed up to the ECHR (despite it mostly being written by British solicitors, and being about the weakest bill of rights since the Soviet Union came into being), so that should give you an idea how we'd feel about giving up currency control and central banking privileges.

[Cain]

There's also the Scottish question...since Scotland are keen to stay in the EU, if we do leave (the polls suggest we wont...but Cameron is bollocksing up the campaign), Scotland may claim that the UK has no right to unilaterlly withdraw Scotland from an organization their population wants to be a part of.

[Cain]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/02/meaning-brexit?force=scn%2Ffb%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2Faninterviewwithianbremmer

Mr Bremmer argued that:

Brexit would bring the "further marginalisation of Britain as a power with influence"
the prospects of TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) and the attractiveness of the British market would be hit "very dramatically" by Brexit
given the uncertainty about the EU's future, now is a "very bad time for a referendum"
for that reason, and given the way the state is changing, it cannot be assumed that the referendum will settle the European question
another referendum in the medium term is a possibility
in a "world with more currencies" it is entirely possible for Britain to thrive in the EU without adopting the Euro
Britain should be doing "so much more" and "everything possible" to improve its relationship with India rather than obsessing about China, for which Germany will always be the best European partner
the notion of an "incredibly overbearing" EU getting in Britain's way does not match the weak reality: "I really would not be very worried that the EU is stopping Britain from accomplishing so much"
Japan, not Britain, is best placed to sell services to the Chinese
by backing out of Europe and thus making itself a "second tier power", Britain is undermining its own attempts to attract Chinese attention and investment
it is dangerously short-termist for Brits to put "all of your eggs in the China basket"
London's concentration on winning small concessions from Brussels illustrates its lack of ambition on the world stage: "The very debate that is being had over this referendum proves my point that Britain is not as relevant as it used to be"
Britain should be looking to set Europe's course: "if you vote to stay in the EU the Brits can and should embrace a leadership role in what is a weaker Europe that needs Britain"
Brexit could put off Eurosceptics in other EU countries, because they will see how "painful" and "technically difficult to engineer" leaving the union is
Brexit would contribute to a much broader trend: the hollowing out of the transatlantic relationship and America's associated turn towards the Pacific

[MMIX]

I think this is quite an interesting [and mercifully short and simple] Irish overview of so-called Brexit.

http://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/brexit-is-more-complicated-than-you-think-23024/?gclid=Cj0KEQiAuqC2BRDVxMSnpa-mhZoBEiQAFta8wS2smesoStqp4MTvkU97a851igrOLQVMahszM-3M3gMaAk6_8P8HAQ

What would happen if the UK left the European Union?
Former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton explains the different options.

In June, the people of the United Kingdom may vote to leave the European Union (EU). At the moment, a narrow majority favors remaining in the EU, but a large group is undecided. That group could swing toward a "leave" position for a variety of reasons, including what might be temporary EU problems with refugees. However temporary the reasons might be, a decision to leave would be politically irreversible.

[Junkenstein]

All leaving the EU accomplishes is meaning we have no say in how it is run while still having to abide by the vast majority of its rules.  Unless we want massive tariffs on all our trade in Europe.

Pretty much that.

I'd say there's also further knock on fuck-ups to come such as when there's any negotiations with serious world powers. The rugged individualist bullshit is also kicking around with many trying to convince others (and likely themselves) that we would be back to the glory days of the empire in a few years. I'd suspect the reality is that the EU and others would do their best to gut London while the other superpowers fight over the carcass. China and Russia have a serious influence now in many UK sectors (Metals, manufacturing, Energy and more) and with the subsequently weaker position will take it as a good opportunity to increase that.

I would imagine that security in general would take a hit due to the general restructuring and communication fuckups.

On a personal level, I've taken on work in a few EU countries over the past couple of years and I doubt that will get easier to do on an exit. The tax calcs as it stands are a fucking headache.

[MMIX]

ALSO "Brexit"?  BREXIT???
That is as grotesquely ridiculous as calling the Second World War Gerspansion!

ALSO I think it is significant that so many Europhobes are calling for us to return to our traditional trading relations, going back to our natural partners our Imperial colonies oops, the Commonwealth. My reading -  the movers and shakers who are the political force behind this shortsighted  strategy are interested in realigning thgeir business interests with developing nations where there is a quick buck to be made and the foot soldiers ie the millions of terrified punter who will go vote us out of Europe  are scared of being swamped by foreigners. Eorope, by definition, is full of foreigners. I would not be at all surprised to see a return of signs on rental accomodation like we used to have "No dogs, no blacks, no Irish".

ALSO I'm not hearing anyone on either side of the debate making a big deal out of the point that I see as being one of the most important issues. Quoting John Bruton again because I believe it bears repeating

In June, the people of the United Kingdom may vote to leave the European Union (EU). At the moment, a narrow majority favors remaining in the EU, but a large group is undecided. That group could swing toward a "leave" position for a variety of reasons, including what might be temporary EU problems with refugees. However temporary the reasons might be, a decision to leave would be politically irreversible..

Fuck it, I'm so old that I voted to stay in the European Economic Community back in the 70's. That means that I remember how difficult it was to actually get to join the European club back in the day. People are wittering on about a "once in a lifetime chance to make this decision". FFS I'm not even retired yet and by the end of June I'll have voted twice on this issue. But if the little Englanders and racists get their way that wil be the end of the line for Britain in European. We have been part of the European enterprise for nearly half a century but almost the whole time we have whinged and bitched about how we are the special snowflake of Europe, we need special terms and only want to be part of the bits that we like. And after all this time we still talk about Europe as though it was an us and them situation. If we just got the fuck over ourselves and accepted that we are Europeans and have been for longer than most of this board has been alive then maybe we would stop behaving like a spoiled brat who is throwing a tantrum because somebody stole our Empire! If we fuck it up this time there is no way back

[Junkenstein]

Well, I've been calling this for a while:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181749/EU-referendum-France-issues-Calais-migrant-warning-over-British-EU-referendum-live.html

The Telegraph understands Boris Johnson and George Osborne are being lined up to debate the future of Britain in the European Union in front of a 12,000-strong audience just 48 hours before the in/out referendum on June 23.
The BBC debate at Wembley Arena - the broadcaster's biggest ever "campaign event" - will be the first time that the two most likely successors to David Cameron as Tory leader have faced eachother in front of a live audience.

That will be depressing to watch. The only question is will they fling more shit at each other or just on themselves?

[Vanadium Gryllz]

Well, I've been calling this for a while:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181749/EU-referendum-France-issues-Calais-migrant-warning-over-British-EU-referendum-live.html

The Telegraph understands Boris Johnson and George Osborne are being lined up to debate the future of Britain in the European Union in front of a 12,000-strong audience just 48 hours before the in/out referendum on June 23.
The BBC debate at Wembley Arena - the broadcaster's biggest ever "campaign event" - will be the first time that the two most likely successors to David Cameron as Tory leader have faced eachother in front of a live audience.

That will be depressing to watch. The only question is will they fling more shit at each other or just on themselves?

How will we know who wins? Judges with buzzers? Applaud-o-meter? Telephone vote?

[Junkenstein]

As I understand it, Tabloid headlines.

[Faust]

Or when one successfully distends their jaw and devours the other.

[Cain]

When the pig orgasms.

[Pæs]