Author Topic: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?  (Read 95294 times)

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #990 on: October 01, 2018, 07:03:40 pm »
Apparently Labour will back a referendum on the final deal...if their members vote for it.   They should do, Labour members are overwhelmingly against Brexit, so if they could appeal to the Tory rebels, they could force the issue.

But that would only be a referendum on the terms of Brexit, not Brexit itself.  And nothing will stop this now, we are fully committed to jumping off this cliff.  Even the revelations of illegal spending by the Leave campaign (in a concerted campaign designed to avoid financial accountability) and the involvement of Russian figures in the Leave campaign, let alone the issues of implementing Brexit without fucking us all over, has not slowed down the process one bit.

One thing I'm not sure of is whether the UK can necessarily cancel Brexit even if everyone sobered up at the same time.

CAN you guys just call this off and go back to business as usual, or is there some EU rule that says you'd have to reapply for membership?
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, shattered underpance lies,
With blown elastic, and exploded back,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Doktor Howl, Spag of Spags:
Look on my ass, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #991 on: October 01, 2018, 07:12:18 pm »
The EU has said we can stop it at any time before March 29.  And we can, the referendum was never legally binding.

However, we would likely be stripped of our special benefits and opt-outs at some point as a result of this (yes, we actually have a better deal with the EU than most members, and still felt put upon and mistreated).  We could probably retain the sterling currency, but that would be about all.

I suppose in the future we could technically re-join after leaving, but again we wouldn't get the benefits we had before, and I think it would take at least a generation before that happened, both due to the UK and EU political climate, and I think we would be treated with a huge amount of suspicion for decades after, weakening our position within the EU.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #992 on: October 01, 2018, 07:58:38 pm »
The UK had veto power to block certain new legislation, that no other country had. It also had the power to block basically any other legislation if it could find the support of two other countries. It also had a load of opt outs on spending, on taking the Euro as a currency. It could be retained if article 50 was withdrawn now. If the UK rejoin in a few years time it would never get those concessions again.
The veto is really a worry for Ireland because Europe keeps attacking the 12% corporate tax rate, and for years the UK has blocked it. For Ireland it's loss is probably the single biggest issue behind Northern Ireland. Hell, if the EU offered the Veto to Ireland instead, we'd potentially soften the stance on Northern Ireland.
There's huge scope to improve Europe from within and that's probably the most frustrating part. Watching the UK piss away leverage as one, if not the most influential countries in Europe.
Narrator: In time you will know the tragic extent of my failings

May you find your worth in the waking world.

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #993 on: October 01, 2018, 08:58:05 pm »
The UK had veto power to block certain new legislation, that no other country had. It also had the power to block basically any other legislation if it could find the support of two other countries. It also had a load of opt outs on spending, on taking the Euro as a currency. It could be retained if article 50 was withdrawn now. If the UK rejoin in a few years time it would never get those concessions again.
The veto is really a worry for Ireland because Europe keeps attacking the 12% corporate tax rate, and for years the UK has blocked it. For Ireland it's loss is probably the single biggest issue behind Northern Ireland. Hell, if the EU offered the Veto to Ireland instead, we'd potentially soften the stance on Northern Ireland.
There's huge scope to improve Europe from within and that's probably the most frustrating part. Watching the UK piss away leverage as one, if not the most influential countries in Europe.

Funny thing about nationalists, right?  Hell, most of Germany's economic woes were put to bed by the Weimar government, just in time for the Nationalists to waltz in and take the credit.

What kills me about Brexit is that it created a massive problem to address prosperity.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, shattered underpance lies,
With blown elastic, and exploded back,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Doktor Howl, Spag of Spags:
Look on my ass, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #994 on: October 01, 2018, 09:11:06 pm »
It's more of an existential crises then just a shift to the right. The Tories have always blamed europe for all of their problems, I think they have just sobered up enough to realise that that wont be an option any more and it terrifies them.

But what it does is it gives fuel to the right wing in europe, Hungry is a dictatorship now, Poland is rigging their elections, its the same played out stories about migrants across all the countries, a scapegoat that probably goes back to the first mud huts.
Narrator: In time you will know the tragic extent of my failings

May you find your worth in the waking world.

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #995 on: October 01, 2018, 09:31:23 pm »
It's more of an existential crises then just a shift to the right. The Tories have always blamed europe for all of their problems, I think they have just sobered up enough to realise that that wont be an option any more and it terrifies them.

But what it does is it gives fuel to the right wing in europe, Hungry is a dictatorship now, Poland is rigging their elections, its the same played out stories about migrants across all the countries, a scapegoat that probably goes back to the first mud huts.


Yeah, the USA is a bit of a festival that way right now.  We're about 60% lazy liberals, 20% really loud fascists, and 20% people who will just do whatever they're told.


I think there is some magic number of assholes, say 15%, that overpower rationalism just with their big Goddamn mouths.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, shattered underpance lies,
With blown elastic, and exploded back,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Doktor Howl, Spag of Spags:
Look on my ass, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #996 on: October 01, 2018, 09:35:08 pm »
The Tories are on the brink of collapse.  Between the loss of a European scapegoat, and the complete collapse in the under 50s demographic votes, they're staring at an abyss.

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #997 on: October 01, 2018, 09:40:29 pm »
The Tories are on the brink of collapse.  Between the loss of a European scapegoat, and the complete collapse in the under 50s demographic votes, they're staring at an abyss.

But being Tories, they will feel obligated to pull everyone else down with them, of course.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, shattered underpance lies,
With blown elastic, and exploded back,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Doktor Howl, Spag of Spags:
Look on my ass, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #998 on: October 02, 2018, 10:03:18 am »
They'd quite happily see the entire United Kingdom dissolve if it meant they had an unassailable 20 year majority.  Which I suspect is a consideration in how they are acting - if Northern Ireland and Scotland go away, the Tories can rely on their English voters to carry them to a majority - at least until their current voting bloc dies off.  In the meantime, they'll stoke resentment about Remainers ruining the terms of Brexit to fuel a cuture war in the press to help build the next generation of embittered Tory voters.  We're already importing elements of the American culture war, so this won't be hard to pull off at all.  And sure, such tactics in the US only resulted in the dumbest man in history trying his damndest to drive the nation off a cliff, so there will definitely be no downsides over here.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #999 on: October 05, 2018, 09:26:43 am »
So the mystery of the DUP's £435,000 Leave donation is still a mystery.  More worryingly, the Electoral Commission seems to be engaged in a coverup:

Quote
Senior Electoral Commission staff privately expressed ‘concerns’ that the Democratic Unionist Party had broken UK election law, openDemocracy can reveal. At issue was a controverisal £435,000 donation to the party’s 2016 Brexit campaign. But just weeks later the watchdog closed the case without investigating the DUP’s Brexit cash.

The Electoral Commission was watching closely when BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight team broadcast Brexit, Dark Money and the DUP in late June. In internal emails, staff at the regulator said that the film raised ‘concerns’ about the source of the DUP’s donation, which came from a shadowy group called the Constitutional Research Council (CRC).

Staff at the watchdog also said that the programme provided "new information" which suggested the DUP had been 'working together' with other Leave campaigns in contravention of electoral law.

But barely a month later, the Electoral Commission announced that it did “not have grounds” to launch a full investigation into the DUP’s Brexit spending. The emails, released to openDemocracy under freedom of information laws, suggest that little attempt was made to examine the allegations aired in the BBC film, with senior staff stressing the need to swiftly “draw a line” under the issue.

Barrister Jolyon Maugham of the Good Law Project said that the Electoral Commission’s decision not to investigate the DUP was “utterly inexplicable from a genuinely independent regulator”. Maugham and Ben Bradshaw MP have annouced that they will seek juduicial review proceedings against the regulator for its 'whitewashed' investigation into the £435,000 DUP donation and its failure to investigate the CRC. openDemocracy first broke the story of the DUP’s Brexit cash back in February 2017.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1000 on: October 05, 2018, 09:28:12 am »
It's worth noting, as the author has, that many Leave campaigns that were vetted by the Electoral Commission were subsequently found to have broken spending laws.  And of course it goes without saying that anything that would undermine the DUP might undermine the government...

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1001 on: October 06, 2018, 08:44:17 pm »
BBC is reporting that the EU is confident that an agreement can be reached before the end of the year...but there's still no solution being presented for the Irish border.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1002 on: October 08, 2018, 06:36:26 pm »

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1003 on: October 08, 2018, 06:38:40 pm »
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-pm-could-refuse-to-sign-39-billion-divorce-settlement-with-eu-if-it-fails-to-give-a3956446.html

Quote
Theresa May today threatened to refuse to sign a £39 billion “divorce” settlement with the EU if it fails to give Britain a “precise” future trade deal within weeks.

The stark warning dramatically dampened expectations of an agreement at next week’s EU summit on Brexit.

It also heightened fears that Brussels may offer Britain only vague guarantees over future trade ties — possibly a document of just 15 to 20 pages — before it quits the European Union in March.

The timing of the Prime Minister’s public demand is also likely to cause alarm that the Government has still not nailed down the type of trade deal on the table.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1004 on: October 08, 2018, 09:39:37 pm »
Yikes, up until now (despite JRM and Boris)  the exit bill has been off the table. That could end up being tit-for-tat, it could end up being the prerequisite discussion for any future trade deal, access to europol and other EU security databases, the stuff May said they would keep paying for to keep access to.
It would be incredibly punitive, but I could see the EU objecting the UK's WTO schedule which can tie that up for years even if they eventually agree.

Both sides are showboating for the final negotiations, have to look like they are playing hard ball, This will likely be followed by the EU offering something, May gets to bring it home and strengthens her position. The danger is this is all moot without NI being sorted, if it goes to 11th hour negotiations without an answer for NI, ROI will just let the clock run out, don't even need to be in the negotiation room and can still force No deal.

My company trades in both jurisdictions, there is no outcome where we don't suffer because of all this.
Narrator: In time you will know the tragic extent of my failings

May you find your worth in the waking world.