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UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

Started by Vanadium Gryllz, February 23, 2016, 02:54:34 PM

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Cain

I've made arrangements, just in case.  But I'm not going to be run out by these morons, not without getting to say "I fucking told you so" before I get lynched.

Besides, the way things are going, they will probably revoke my passport and exile me back to Australia anyway.

Pergamos

Quote from: Cain on March 08, 2019, 05:50:05 PM
I've made arrangements, just in case.  But I'm not going to be run out by these morons, not without getting to say "I fucking told you so" before I get lynched.

Besides, the way things are going, they will probably revoke my passport and exile me back to Australia anyway.

They want out of the commonwealth too?

Cain

No, for both the UK and Australia.

But we're deporting veterans, and UK law is that you can rescind nationality if the person won't be rendered stateless (ie; is a dual-national), so I don't have a chance in hell.

Cain

This week's going to be a shitshow.

Tomorrow, Parliament votes on May's deal.  Again.  They will reject it, again, because no progress has been made on talks in Europe.

When that fails, we will have a vote on Wednesday, on whether the UK should avoid a No Deal Brexit.  That will probably pass.

Then on Thursday, assuming the Wednesday vote passes, there will be a vote on whether to extend Article 50.  I haven't seen the wargaming on this yet, but my suspicion is that this will not pass, as the insane portion of the press have done a good job in convincing people that delaying Brexit = no Brexit.

With no mechanisms to enforce the "avoiding no deal" vote, while having definitely voted for that outcome, Parliament will descend into chaos as there is 2 weeks until Brexit happens and no way forward. 

If Article 50 is extended, it can only be done so for a couple of months at maximum, and given the EU's clear position I doubt any more alterations to their position are forthcoming. The UK will then end up in the same position in May, with right-wing loonies working themselves up into a frothing frenzy in the meantime.

Faust

The only way mays deal could get through is at 11PM on the 29th. And only if enough ministers have self preservation of their own investments in not tanking the economy. It would be the only scenario where enough people switch position on Mays deal but if comes to that the most likely outcome is a delay or ripping up article 50.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Cain

And even then, I would only give it even odds of passing.

And, lets remember, this is the negotiation for the political settlement. The economic negotiating will be brutal.

Cain

The last minute "concessions" from the EU on the backstop won't be enough to sway today's vote. And given that, in substance, nothing has changed they probably shouldn't be.

Faust

If the UK is committed to no border in NI, which it has said at every point it is, why not own that decision and just remove the backstop from the EU negotiations at all.

Have a political declaration or treaty built on the good Friday agreement that NI will stay in the customs union with the border down the Irish sea. Instead of shying away from it, own the decision.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Cain

In that scenario the DUP would collapse the government for putting NI on a different regulatory framework to the rest of the UK permanently.

Speaking of which, the DUP wants to delay the vote to study the declaration more, while the ERG lawyers say it doesn't satisfy their demands.

Faust

There's no way out of the deadlock while the DUP are there unless enough labour rebels and the independent group went for her deal which I don't think they will. An election could in theory sort out the DUP issue, but not the ERG. Though to be honest I've always had the feeling the ERG used the backstop as an excuse to get what they really want which is no deal.

Realistically though this is the world where votes go wrong and the new government would be an even weaker brand of Tory with 1 or 2 more DUP beasties in there for good measure.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Cain

And yet that's what may happen.

People are predicting today's vote fails, despite some ERG defections, tomorrow's vote passes, Thursday's vote passes.  Parliament is dissolved, elections are called for, the Tory party falls to civil war and we get a second referendum.

It's far, far too optimistic.

Cain


Doktor Howl

Molon Lube

Cain


LMNO

Let me know when it's time to stop "Keeping Calm and Carrying On".