UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Doktor Howl]

Looks like there's a bit of conservative mutiny brewing.

[Cain]

Oh yeah, the numbers are there to topple the government...if everyone can agree that's the best course of action.

[Cain]

Well actually hang on.

Kate Hoey is Labour in name only, she'll vote with the government, as will Charlie Elphicke.

The 10 Tory rebels, Gauke, Letwin et al should cancel them out, but they haven't committed to leaving the party yet, just voting to prevent No Deal occuring.

[Cain]

[Junkenstein]

The Moog interview is great. Should be broadcast every time the worm speaks.

As should his book sales which last I heard was still not in triple digits. Hells, if you knock off 20-30 review copies it's barely double.

In tomorrow's news, enough labour MPs decide to prop government up as they just hate Corbyn that much. And/or fear the sun/mail headlines against them. Which are coming in droves.

Also funny is eu official reactions to anything government says. Ranges from "no" to "this is a blatant lie." As I understand diplomacy this is the equivalent of "fucking idiot".

[Doktor Howl]

And the defections have begun.

https://www.apnews.com/b19feee04deb4747a4fc5839680e183f

[Doktor Howl]

Boom.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/world/europe/brexit-uk-parliament-vote.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR2TVSHMG0reJcnZqA9HWeDN05eEJz7ENTXNuWbcDsB8E6C7W3-Rlgb4s6k

[Juana]

Well then.


I have to say I'm still baffled as to how they imagine this whole backstop thing is going to work out if they continue to insist on kicking it.

[Magpie]

Well then.


I have to say I'm still baffled as to how they imagine this whole backstop thing is going to work out if they continue to insist on kicking it.

If a new government can be formed without relying on the party of the 18th century DUP, there is an option for NI to stay in the customs union.

[Faust]

The "undemocratic" backstop (which between 60-70 percent of NI support), Is meant as a fall back to protect the peace treaty the good Friday agreement. The backstop can go any time, it just needs an alternative that also protects the gfa.
The demands to remove it go like this:
"Remove the hated backstop"
"Have you an alternative?"
"... Remove the backstop" repeat for 3 years.
When faced with the reality that Ireland will allow no deal over no backstop, last nights shenanigans kicked off and a very real chance of a softer brexit is appearing. The backstop isn't needed if the UK is in the customs union, but if part of it leaves NI needs to stay.

[Faust]

And yeah as magpie said, the only thing standing between boris and triggering the backstop and getting on with brexit for the rest of the UK are the ten dinosaurs from the DUP

[Cain]

Who, if a general election goes ahead, will hopefully no longer be a factor in decision-making anymore. Because seriously, fuck the DUP.

[Cain]

Or not. I see Labour are refusing a call for an election.

This is probably going to get them a lot of shit, given the double standards that are frequently applied to Labour (see also: how many screeching articles on Labour deselections of MPs, of which there have been precisely zero, versus Boris' 21 deselections yesterday) but there is a clever kind of logic to it.

This means that the government needs to come up with a plan that can command a majority in government, while not putting any of the onus on Labour to run a successful election campaign, form a (likely coalition) government and renegotiate with the EU.

At the same time, with the Tory majority gone, and the only other options for partners being the Lib Dems and SNP, Labour actually becomes the only viable choice for getting any kind of workable Brexit past the Commons.

Of course, time is still on Boris' side. If he can stall for 2 months, we drop out by default.  But it puts him in a very uncomfortable position.

[Faust]

Of course, time is still on Boris' side. If he can stall for 2 months, we drop out by default.  But it puts him in a very uncomfortable position.

The EU has a contingency for that
Line one of article 50 would indicate if there is a constitutional crises that it is invalid, obviously they are not going to just say "No you are not leaving because you are a basket case", but it gives them credibly to say they need to wait and see what happens and that it would be unfair to allow the UK to sleepwalk into no deal.
The mechanism for that is the extension date, this was made flexible because france were afraid of dicking around, and well... yeah. But a flexible extension date means the EU could unilaterally say, "you have until January if you need it", and if parliament indicate a majority wanting that, they can ignore Boris crowing, if they take no action to change anything November 1st it is up to the UK to enact the no deal changes.
That would cause further problems in the UK though, as you would have half the government saying they are not seeking to use the extension despite not having a firm grasp on power, and the other half, the majority, saying they do want the extension, creating that legal ambiguity for A50 meeting its constitutional requirements

[Faust]

Also last nights vote was 52% to 48% which to me just confirms that this is the work of some malevolent deity with a dickish sense of humour.