Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[minuspace]

The frequency at which I visit the grocery store is slightly higher than it should be, now particularly, so we all just watched a decent PSA on the subject.


Safe Grocery Shopping:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps

[The Wizard Joseph]

The principal behind why it can aerosolize outside of the hospital setting you have already acknowledged is a simple one. When I can take the time to find it again I will post a link to the interview with the Korean doctor that made me realize the very real threat. It's kinda like a rock tumbler.

Imagine a very tiny microdroplet released into the air by shouting or singing loudly. It's smaller because of the extra force that propelled it and so will already both travel farther and remain airborne longer than one made by simple speech. Now imagine that this incredibly small, fragile "rock" is being subjected to constant, strong vibration in a medium. In this case that medium is the various molecules in the air, dry air being worst for this purpose because it will suck up any surrounding water all the faster. As the microdrop vibrates it sheds water and a virus light enough to float on microcurrents for a very long time before settling to a surface. The droplet does not even have to be completely dissolved for this viral shedding to occur. Even the tiniest droplet can contain may thousands of viruses. One breath in a shout will release untold numbers of such droplets, all of them shedding viruses in a sonic-saturated air mix. Now imagine the folly of being in close quarters with thousands of people all disturbing the air by moving around and shouting like at a hardcore metal concert, as an extreme example, for hours.

It only takes 1 in a mucus membrane like, say, the eye to begin replication. Considering that the carrying person may not even be sick enough to consider a screening test this pretty much makes mass, loud gatherings an incredible hazard. No protests. No concerts, no churches, no nothing if we want to flatten "the curve" meaningfully.

But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.

[Doktor Howl]

You can't fix stupid.  Not sure we should try.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nearly-a-dozen-liberty-university-students-sick-with-coronavirus-symptoms-after-falwell-reopened-campus?via=twitter_page

[Doktor Howl]

And Big Joe Diffie died of the plague.

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/joe-diffie-country-singer-dead-obituary-974556/

[Cain]

But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.

That's what galls me about what is going on the UK.

Part of the problem here is that we got severely mixed messages from the government in the early days. Hell, it's still happening now, despite the "lockdown" coming into effect. People are going to take their cues from the media and what they see their leaders doing. If a leadership say, says "it's alright if most people get infected" and then, after ordering a lockdown, says "if your work won't let you work from home, you should still go in", and shows your leader visiting hospitals and shaking hands with infected people, then yeah, people aren't going to treat it seriously.

Compare that with, say, what Israel is doing. Lord knows I hate Bibi like poison, he's a malignant narcissist and one of the many precursors of the current populist turn in world politics. Yet, what has he been doing? He's been putting out videos showing him using video conferencing and explaining how to go about social distancing. No mixed messages. Explanation combined with leading through example (putting aside the Orthodox Jewish community element of this for now...).

People are going to take their cues from media and from their leaders. The problem starts at the very top, and in countries where there is lacking leadership (like the US) or lacking leadership and a cancerous media landscape (the UK), there will undoubtedly be more cases of people flouting best practices.

[Junkenstein]

It's to be expected, really. This mob has spent years now shitting on "experts" at every opportunity so it's no shock that a significant chunk of people are ignoring all advice and instructions.

I'm pretty sure the only reason they've done anything at all to control it is that it's likely to hit their voting base. Hard. 

[Cramulus]

The principal behind why it can aerosolize outside of the hospital setting you have already acknowledged is a simple one. When I can take the time to find it again I will post a link to the interview with the Korean doctor that made me realize the very real threat. It's kinda like a rock tumbler.

Imagine a very tiny microdroplet released into the air by shouting or singing loudly. It's smaller because of the extra force that propelled it and so will already both travel farther and remain airborne longer than one made by simple speech. Now imagine that this incredibly small, fragile "rock" is being subjected to constant, strong vibration in a medium. In this case that medium is the various molecules in the air, dry air being worst for this purpose because it will suck up any surrounding water all the faster. As the microdrop vibrates it sheds water and a virus light enough to float on microcurrents for a very long time before settling to a surface. The droplet does not even have to be completely dissolved for this viral shedding to occur. Even the tiniest droplet can contain may thousands of viruses. One breath in a shout will release untold numbers of such droplets, all of them shedding viruses in a sonic-saturated air mix. Now imagine the folly of being in close quarters with thousands of people all disturbing the air by moving around and shouting like at a hardcore metal concert, as an extreme example, for hours.

It only takes 1 in a mucus membrane like, say, the eye to begin replication. Considering that the carrying person may not even be sick enough to consider a screening test this pretty much makes mass, loud gatherings an incredible hazard. No protests. No concerts, no churches, no nothing if we want to flatten "the curve" meaningfully.

But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.

In the interest of clear info --

Aerosol droplets don't disperse faster / further because people in the room are being loud.

Here's some info from the World Health Org

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes.2-7 In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported.8

here's what droplet vs airborne refers to:

Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g., coughing or sneezing) and is therefore at risk of having his/her mucosae (mouth and nose) or conjunctiva (eyes) exposed to potentially infective respiratory droplets. Transmission may also occur through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person.8 Therefore, transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g., stethoscope or thermometer).

Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission as it refers to the presence of microbes within droplet nuclei, which are generally considered to be particles <5μm in diameter, can remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.

In the context of COVID-19, airborne transmission may be possible in specific circumstances and settings in which procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are performed; i.e., endotracheal intubation, bronchoscopy, open suctioning, administration of nebulized treatment, manual ventilation before intubation, turning the patient to the prone position, disconnecting the patient from the ventilator, non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation, tracheostomy, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

in summary - airborne transmission isn't happening. When it does happen, it's because somebody sneezed during a medical procedure.

Dr. Fauci (resident adult in the room) did a really good interview with Trevor Noah the other day. It's worth a watch if only to get the most up-to-date info we have about how the disease is carried and transmitted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8

[The Wizard Joseph]

Well Cramulus I'm not yet willing to entirely concede on the subject of whether or not the virus can aerosolize as I describe, yet. I sincerely hope that I am wrong. I'm going to review your information as well as I can and of course advise that both theirs and DEFINITELY mine be taken with a serious grain of salt due to the early state of the current research.

[Faust]

If the virus was airborn more than just direct contact coughing sneezing etc on you, then the cases of hospital workers with it would be orders of magnitude higher, the majority are just using gloves, some have plastic face guards, neither of which would do anything for aerosolized spread.
Its not happening.

[The Wizard Joseph]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

I found the interview and rewatched it just to be sure that I had not misunderstood. The relevant part about aerosol is at about 11min in, but I STRONGLY suggest that you watch the whole thing intently. He is Korea's covid czar, not just some doctor spouting off a personal theory. Anything under 5 microns is considered aerosol. I understand your skepticism and willingness to trust what you're told, but I'm dead serious here and I DO understand this principle as an avid Plague Inc player. Aerosol is a tier 2 attribute of transmission and incredibly effective in dry climates particularly.

It's only a game in the sense of having a goal to eliminate ALL humans entirely and the ability to direct the development of the disease to some extent as random mutation can be a factor of strategic inconvenience, but also a major strength. The only vector that I ever won the game on ultra brutal difficulty was a virus, an aerosol virus with some water transmission as well. Mock me for citing a game if you will, but I am good at it because I also possess strong knowledge for a lay person and a freakish ability to read and anticipate patterns.

[Cramulus]

Ok, the interview describes people closely packed together into a church-type setting for hours. They are all less than 1m from each other (within droplet range) for a long period of time. It doesn't seem like a reliable indicator that aerosol was the transmitter, it very likely could be that contageous people coughed directly on others, shook hands, hugged, etc.

The doctor goes on to say that if you're not in a closely packed building, aerosol is not dangerous. Even with that being said, he doesn't say that the people in the church were infected via aerosol--he just explains that it could have happened that way. And yeah, if you cough into someone's mouth, the aerosol might be a vector, but the data is saying that it's very rare.

I've heard virus transmission compared to glitter... when you sneeze, visualize that you put a big cloud of glitter in the air--but it doesn't hang there, glitter falls pretty quickly. If someone coughs and then you walk through the room a few minutes later, you're not breathing any glitter. But there may be a fine film of glitter on every surface in the vicinity. If you touch glitter, it's on your hands and then it's on everything else you touch. You gotta scrub really hard to get rid of it. That's what we gotta focus on, that it sticks to everything and remains infectious for a while. You probably don't have to be worried about the air unless someone is couging directly at you.


I don't want to read into your reply too much, but it kinda sounds like you had an expectation based a video game (that COVID-19 is being transmitted via aerosol), and then are judging a source's credibility based on how well it agrees with your assumption. (Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy)

There's a lot of info out there, and evaluating which shit is real can be very tricky. Generally, I trust health organizations over any individual doctor. And I think Dr. Fauci (the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984) is credible, he's likely the top expert in the whole US. If this random Korean doctor is correct, then wouldn't you expect to see confirmation elsewhere? Meanwhile, have any of the statements or predictions made by the WHO fallen apart?

[Doktor Howl]

The licking doorknobs thing seems to be the same as the buttchugging/pharming thing.

It sounds like something some bored boomer just made up because KIDS THESE DAYS.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Not some random Korean doctor. Their leading epidemiologist. If I were to compare the two based solely on the effectiveness of the suppression in the two countries... Well the charts are pretty clearly in favor of Korea.

It's not glitter at all. Glitter is a solid of generally uniform size visible to the naked eye. It's a terrible analogy in that respect and overly simplistic.

It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.

After a bit of looking into this sharpshooter fallacy you cite if you think I'm ignoring other data just to favor something I already presumed on purpose, painting a bullseye after the shot so to speak you are in essence calling me either deluded or a liar. I didn't even consider aerosol until after I saw the interview and was well aware of the property before I ever played the game. I've been studying medicine independently since I was about 4 and my parents got me a children's book on basic anatomy and function. I knew the difference between a trachea and an esophagus in kindergarten and that the medical term for an asshole was rectum, and gleefully taught the other kids. My interest in the topic has never abated. My mother entered medical school and eventually earned a full LPN. I read just about all of her books and realized after seeing the horror of certain disease progressions that I was a but too squeamish for medical practice and it never became a life goal, but my interest in medicine never abated as a personal study. Later in life for abou 4 yearsI became involved in hospital logistics while working in the laundry department of a massive hospital complex. I got to know many practitioners and became known as the person to talk to because I understand medical terminology and theory far better than even the department management. I have been asked by extraordinarily competent practitioners why I was not a doctor after being able to participate in technical discussions and even give meaningful insight. When the ebola scare happened they turned to me for input on how to best prevent fluid transmission in the laundry and other logistical practices.Some of my insight was implemented like suggesting that possible contaminated loads be specially tagged and bagged before deposit for delivery and that if there was an outbreak that a certain isolated and rarely used chute be specific for such loads so that only one operator in full ppe could transport them as a separate level of priority for sorting and loading into a specially designated washer which would be sanitized after every load.

I am no doctor. I am no scientist. I DO know what I'm talking about and have been relied upon for competent execution and policy writing by both. None of this is a lie or a boast. You're wrong about the sharpshooter thing and although I will give the benefit of the doubt about you not intending to imply dishonesty, imply madness, or insult my intelligence it certainly could be interpreted that way absent such assumptions of your good faith.

I'm not standing on my own, ill informed, authority here but I DO have a lifetime of real experiences with such knowledge. Give me just a little bit of credit. Go back up thread and tell me that I have been entirely inaccurate in prediction so far. Or don't. Wait a few months instead and count the trainloads of corpses that I predict will be coming out of New York.

Remember that Fauci is still working for Trump and is in essence the mouthpiece for an administration that recently decapitated the cdc almost entirely. Fauci may surely quite competent and I believe him honest from what I have seen, but he's working from a broken system and questionable data for an administration that is quite malignant.

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

[Faust]

It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.

Not very commonly, as commonly as would be expected from a virus that can transmit on surfaces or by being coughed or sneezed on.
If it was airborn masks and gloves would not be sufficient, and infection would be near total in hospitals, which its not.
The evidence isnt there to support your more complex, unlikely scenario

[Doktor Howl]

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.