Iran

[Pergamos]

In simple terms, the Iranian theocracy has won this little war. And, they know they are now stronger than they've ever been. And so, it's now just a matter of them extracting the reparations they want from us, and they also know time is on their side.

The POSOTUS believed he had the military capability to force a regime change in Iran simply by ordering a short bombing campaign. But, the result of his failed bombing campaign is that the Iranian theocracy now has the capability to severely weaken the Turd Reich. And, although the Iranian theocracy can not actually destroy the Turd Reich outright, they can easily weaken it by occasionally restricting the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.

Therefore, I see no reason for the Iranian theocracy to come to any kind of a final agreement with the Turd Reich prior to the U.S. Midterm elections.

The original interview this article is based upon is behind a WSJ paywall. But, this is a short summary:   

Karl Rove Predicts Iran Will Try to Hurt Trump in Midterms

As per this article:

"Legendary GOP operative Karl Rove predicted the Iranians would try to hurt President Donald Trump in this fall's midterm elections by creating problems during a Fox News hit over the weekend.

Rove made the point shortly after anchor Paul Gigot observed that Trump "has some persuading to do to convince the public" that the United States' war with Iran has been successful."

And, as per further along in this article:

""Well, even if it happens, I'm not convinced that it's going to be that dispositive, that that's going to determine the outcome, the election, [it] will help, obviously. But look, we're not the only ones who know this. We're not the only ones paying attention to oil prices," replied Rove. "Remember, all of these negotiations with Iran need to be completed by the middle of August. The Iranians are not dumb. They know that the fall campaign starts in earnest on Labor Day. I would not be surprised to see them attempt to have an influence on the outcome by creating problems in mid-August, and causing oil prices to rise and uncertainty to grow.""

And so, I'm obviously not the only one who suspects the Iranians are going to continue to toy with the POSOTUS and his Turd Reich.

That probably means extremely high gas prices, and nasty price shocks on everything that needs to be transported.  I hope, along with the Iranians, that the Democrats sweep the midterms, but I don't want everything to cost obscene amounts to get there, and I also really hope the Democrats take things far more seriously than they have been.  Momdani style action is pretty desparately needed.

[Doktor Howl]

In simple terms, the Iranian theocracy has won this little war. And, they know they are now stronger than they've ever been. And so, it's now just a matter of them extracting the reparations they want from us, and they also know time is on their side.

The POSOTUS believed he had the military capability to force a regime change in Iran simply by ordering a short bombing campaign. But, the result of his failed bombing campaign is that the Iranian theocracy now has the capability to severely weaken the Turd Reich. And, although the Iranian theocracy can not actually destroy the Turd Reich outright, they can easily weaken it by occasionally restricting the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.

Therefore, I see no reason for the Iranian theocracy to come to any kind of a final agreement with the Turd Reich prior to the U.S. Midterm elections.

The original interview this article is based upon is behind a WSJ paywall. But, this is a short summary:   

Karl Rove Predicts Iran Will Try to Hurt Trump in Midterms

As per this article:

"Legendary GOP operative Karl Rove predicted the Iranians would try to hurt President Donald Trump in this fall's midterm elections by creating problems during a Fox News hit over the weekend.

Rove made the point shortly after anchor Paul Gigot observed that Trump "has some persuading to do to convince the public" that the United States' war with Iran has been successful."

And, as per further along in this article:

""Well, even if it happens, I'm not convinced that it's going to be that dispositive, that that's going to determine the outcome, the election, [it] will help, obviously. But look, we're not the only ones who know this. We're not the only ones paying attention to oil prices," replied Rove. "Remember, all of these negotiations with Iran need to be completed by the middle of August. The Iranians are not dumb. They know that the fall campaign starts in earnest on Labor Day. I would not be surprised to see them attempt to have an influence on the outcome by creating problems in mid-August, and causing oil prices to rise and uncertainty to grow.""

And so, I'm obviously not the only one who suspects the Iranians are going to continue to toy with the POSOTUS and his Turd Reich.

That probably means extremely high gas prices, and nasty price shocks on everything that needs to be transported.  I hope, along with the Iranians, that the Democrats sweep the midterms, but I don't want everything to cost obscene amounts to get there, and I also really hope the Democrats take things far more seriously than they have been.  Momdani style action is pretty desparately needed.

The dems will get in.

And then they will say "We have to put all of this behind us."

And no bad actors will be punished.

[chaotic neutral observer]

The dems will get in.

And then they will say "We have to put all of this behind us."

And no bad actors will be punished.

You're almost certainly right, and as a consequence, the next Republican president will make us all wish for a return to good old Trumpy.

[Pergamos]

Yeah, that's what I'm expecting too, although I am getting some hope from all the DSA candidates that are winning primaries.

[Doktor Howl]

Yeah, that's what I'm expecting too, although I am getting some hope from all the DSA candidates that are winning primaries.

I am watching them with interest.

[Abbot Mythos]

Methinks the end of this war is still much further away than the POSOTUS would lead us to believe:

Proposed Hormuz passage deal not feasible for shipping industry, sources say

As per this article:

"Control of the strait has been the biggest sticking point in efforts to end the conflict.

Under the latest proposal, Tehran would be able to intervene if necessary with any inbound traffic, while outbound traffic would follow a route between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Iran, a senior ⁠Iranian source told Reuters this week."

If this is really Tehran's latest negotiating position, the end is not near.

[Doktor Howl]

Iran's advantages are:

1.  Geography.
2.  A shit pot of missiles and drones.
3.  A total disregard for the opinions of both their citizens and the world in general.
4.  They are sitting on 20% of the world's oil shipping.  The Houthi may dramatically raise that number if they can close the entrance to the Red Sea.

The USA's advantages are:

1.  We don't have any advantages.


What we DO have is a senile, evil old man with decision paralysis, and a drunk who thinks this is a round of Call of Duty.  Hegseth didn't bother with logistics and instead fired all the planners because they were "desk jockeys" and not LETHAL WARRIOR ETHOS SPARTANBOOS WIFF LOTS OF TESTOSTERONE.

So our forces are just about out of ballistic missiles and interceptors, and our navy has been eating spam and canned beets 3 meals a day since early March.  I'm pretty sure the fire on the Gerald Ford was lit by the crew to get the ship out of theater, but it's back now.

There is no way to win this with conventional weapons.  The geography of the area favors ballistic missiles and drones and makes it very difficult for interceptors to engage.  I can expand on this if anyone wants.

The only way to "win" at this point is the use of about 20 standard nuclear warheads used in particular areas at the same time (what you do NOT do is "sort of" nuke Persians).  However, even the old fool in the white house understands that the political cost of that is permanent and worse than the stalemate we're in by a couple of orders of magnitude.  We can recover from this embarrassment; we could not recover from using nuclear weapons.

[Doktor Howl]

Another fun thing that happened was the Iranians conducted a cyber attack on Minnesota's water system.

Trump blamed Minnesota.

I have to say, the Iranians keep up on the news (we already knew that from their Lego videos), and I am fairly certain they knew how Trump would react.  Thus they get FUD for almost no effort.

[Faust]

That attack on the water was the first time I have seen Iran successfully target infrastructure with cyber attacks.
Remember they had it done to them with the enrichment with stuxnet that messed up all the PLC's.

And what do you think about negotiations? Similar to the Brexit side we see the same posturing on both sides but a "shape" of a deal appearing in the common list of demands. The 300Bn reparations seems to be agreed on both side.

Tolls have become "fees", its the exact amount that's the sticking point.

Is it possible to get Israel to drop its colonial ambitions in Lebanon if not Palestine? I can't see how the US would get that without completely defunding them and waiting for them to fall into line.

[Doktor Howl]

That attack on the water was the first time I have seen Iran successfully target infrastructure with cyber attacks.
Remember they had it done to them with the enrichment with stuxnet that messed up all the PLC's.

Yeah, that's the sort of trick you only get to do once on a weapons facility.  However, our systems are a goatfuck and it's not like Iranians aren't capable.

And what do you think about negotiations? Similar to the Brexit side we see the same posturing on both sides but a "shape" of a deal appearing in the common list of demands. The 300Bn reparations seems to be agreed on both side.

They will fail, because Trump is pathologically incapable of keeping his word.  The way the MOU failed is all the illustration of that you need.

Tolls have become "fees", its the exact amount that's the sticking point.

Iran wants 1%.  Trump has decided HE wants to bill everyone 20%, which means the strait is still closed.

Is it possible to get Israel to drop its colonial ambitions in Lebanon if not Palestine? I can't see how the US would get that without completely defunding them and waiting for them to fall into line.

That wouldn't be enough.  We'd have to actually threaten to attack them or actually attack them.

Bibi wants his Greater Israel.  Trump's woes will not stand in the way of that, and frankly they can survive without our funding.

[Faust]

Iran wants 1%.  Trump has decided HE wants to bill everyone 20%, which means the strait is still closed.

You're right, theres no hope of the negotiations getting sorted, even if these points are met, he will have sticking points on the merchandising and film adaptation rights.

[Doktor Howl]

Iran wants 1%.  Trump has decided HE wants to bill everyone 20%, which means the strait is still closed.

You're right, theres no hope of the negotiations getting sorted, even if these points are met, he will have sticking points on the merchandising and film adaptation rights.

I at this point ask anyone to point at any deal he ever made that was successful, or at least didn't leave smoking wreckage all over the place, and that he did not renege on.

Any at all.