Principia Discordia

From the Guardian's live blogging (http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/blog/2011/jan/25/middleeast-tunisia) of events

QuoteTens of thousands of anti-government protesters have clashed with police in Cairo in the largest demonstration in Egypt in a generation. Demonstrators want an end to the authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak's near 30 years of power.

• Police have responded with batons, water cannons and tear gas in a bid to quell the crowd. The demonstration, said to be inspired by the uprising in Tunisia, began peacefully before clashes occurred.

• As night falls in Egypt protests have also broken out in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria. Roads are also being blocked by demonstrators in the Sinai Peninsula, and large rallies are being reported across the Nile Delta and the Suez Canal region.

• US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said Mubarak's government is stable despite the demonstrations. Mubarak is an important US partner in the Middle East.

This is seriously interesting.  If Egypt has a revolution in the same way Tunisia did, this will have a dramatic effect on the "peace process", as well as US posture in the region.  This will be an upset for all established players in the area, make no mistake.

Also note: Twitter is not driving the revolution.  FFS.  Get over the social media fetish, people, it's a fucking tool.  Telegrams did not incite WWI and Twitter does not "cause" anything.

Been following this today. It's getting pretty serious.

And :mittens: for the twitter comment.

I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though.  Tunisia was a rather unique case, in that the military had some well established links with the trade unions, and that the President there trusted his own private paramilitaries over the army.  Also, as a consequence of this, the military was rather underfunded, by regional standards.  As in all potential revolutionary situations, the key question is of military relationships to the revolutionaries versus the established government.

And I don't know enough about the Egyptian army to say one way or the other.

Situations like this are so touchy that an offhand comment from another country could cause a sway. Maybe by morning we can start to get a handle on which way this will play out.

Assuming the revolution is pulled off, what are we looking at for Egypt's next government?

A house of cards.

Quote from: Cain on January 25, 2011, 09:53:50 PMAlso note: Twitter is not driving the revolution.  FFS.  Get over the social media fetish, people, it's a fucking tool.  Telegrams did not incite WWI and Twitter does not "cause" anything.

:mittens: permission to repost?

Sure

Quote from: Requia ☣ on January 25, 2011, 10:20:23 PM
Assuming the revolution is pulled off, what are we looking at for Egypt's next government?

Depends on exactly how the revolutionary situation goes down.  So far, it looks like the protestors are inspired by the Tunisia example - they want rule of law, civil rights and an end to corruption.  The Muslim Brotherhood has not engaged in the protest in any kind of organized capacity (so far) but I do worry if mass violence breaks out - which seems likely, since Egypt now declared the protests illegal - their greater discipline and organization may allow them to push their way to the top.  About 20 years ago, the lower levels of the officer class of the Egyptian Army had a real problem with MB inspired infiltration of their ranks, but I don't know if that is still the case.

Yeah, this is a very very interesting "domino effect" we're seeing around the world--might could have been started by such bloodier uprisings as Burma and Iran.

Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Quote from: Cramulus on January 26, 2011, 03:21:36 PM
Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Not in the slightest. There are many water tight assholes in the government as of right now.

Well, I see why the US government has a stake in promoting the peace--they've been Mubarak's ally for ages.  So what Clinton's saying is, let's not all jump to conclusions, Folks, this might just be a "sign o' the times."  We were VERY cautious about assigning attributions of "hope vs. tyranny" etc with Tunisia until it was evident that things were turning a certain way.  I think Obama et al are just VERY fucking savvy when it comes to calling this shit, knowing as they do that the way the US reacts to these moments in history has ripple effects for generations all over the world.

Which is shady considering that there should be purer motives for speaking out or not, of course.  But such is the world of politics, I suppose.

Quote from: Cramulus on January 26, 2011, 03:21:36 PM
Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Egypt is too important in the war on terror to risk. What's the likelyhood of american resources being used to kept them in power?

Quote from: Cain on January 25, 2011, 09:59:39 PM
I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though. 

I was wondering that too from the little bit of coverage I have seen. Only thing I could think at the time (and this is a very uninformed opinion) is maybe the government doesn't trust the military to stay loyal and not just take over via coup.

Well, this is interesting:

http://piratepad.net/ep/pad/view/ro.rQaXW6ia/latest

It's fascinating watching this unfold. I wonder what role social media is actually playing over there.

Quote from: Cramulus on January 26, 2011, 03:21:36 PM
Do you agree with Clinton's statement that the protests are not rocking the government?

Shit no.  If the government isn't scared, why has the President's son and his family suddenly decided to take an unscheduled holiday in London?

Quote from: Thurnez Isa on January 27, 2011, 03:30:00 AM

Quote from: Cain on January 25, 2011, 09:59:39 PM
I'm wondering about the Egyptian military, though. 

I was wondering that too from the little bit of coverage I have seen. Only thing I could think at the time (and this is a very uninformed opinion) is maybe the government doesn't trust the military to stay loyal and not just take over via coup.

I'd be surprised, to be honest.  While leaders for the country have been drawn from the military, the Egyptian Army is one of the largest and best equipped in the region, with plenty of combat experience and does lots of training with NATO aligned countries.  While I could see it taking over to provide stability if the President fled, I don't necessarily see it moving to oust him.

NPR is reporting the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to join in on the protests tomorrow.

Is this bad?

Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

Quote from: Requia ☣ on January 28, 2011, 12:01:12 AM
NPR is reporting the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to join in on the protests tomorrow.

Is this bad?

Yup.  It means the Islamist movement is attempting to hijack the anti-corruption pro-civil rights demonstrations for their own ends.  It's rather like having Fred Phelps turn up to your anti-war rally in your support.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 02:56:39 AM
Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

Yep, several shootings and lots of beating for everyone.

Israel has, in a completely expected development, come down on the side of supporting the Egyptian government.  Meanwhile, someone in the State Department finally did something smart and got Clinton to issue a thinly veiled threat, suggesting Egypt reform very soon.

Reports on TV say that police in Alexandria are taking off their uniforms and joining the protestors.  At least two sources are reporting that right now.

It still hasn't been confirmed whether Murbarak gave the order for security forces to use live ammunition...in some ways I hope he did, because if not they're now completely out of control.  An opposition leader, Ayman Nour, is in ICU with a head injury, and Nobel Laureate Mohamed El Baradei was hit by a water cannon and then arrested.  Protests are erupting faster than security services can stop them.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 01:11:06 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 02:56:39 AM
Apparently horrible police brutality in the Suez area tonight.

Cain called it.

Yep, several shootings and lots of beating for everyone.

Israel has, in a completely expected development, come down on the side of supporting the Egyptian government.  Meanwhile, someone in the State Department finally did something smart and got Clinton to issue a thinly veiled threat, suggesting Egypt reform very soon.

If I were in the Sinai MFO right now, I'd be shitting bricks.  They don't get any weapons heavier than a machine gun (not even mortars), and there's only a brigade, stretched across the entire coast.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 01:55:13 PM
Reports on TV say that police in Alexandria are taking off their uniforms and joining the protestors.  At least two sources are reporting that right now.

It still hasn't been confirmed whether Murbarak gave the order for security forces to use live ammunition...in some ways I hope he did, because if not they're now completely out of control.  An opposition leader, Ayman Nour, is in ICU with a head injury, and Nobel Laureate Mohamed El Baradei was hit by a water cannon and then arrested.  Protests are erupting faster than security services can stop them.

:eek:

Quote from: Risus on December 15, 2010, 05:20:26 PM
Riots Intensify as Police Defect
Free Press GazetteAssociated Press
Civilian rioting in [Greece/Russia/YourMom] gains momentum amidst
increasing allegations of riot officers cooperating with the protesters.
Witnesses report several instances of officers assisting rioters or joining
the protests outright. Law enforcement agencies in the area have yet to
release an official statement.

:aaa:


I''m not sure I quite undestand what's going on, though. Or rather, I don't fully understand the significance and the likely resolution. Any chance that this could have a net positive outcome? Or is it more likely to get worse before it gets better?

There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:05:57 PM
There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

The North is where the Fijiians are, IIRC.  They take no shit.

IIRC, it's the Fijiian battalion in the North, the Columbians in the middle, Americans on the South.

Quote from: Doktor Phox on January 28, 2011, 02:04:32 PM
I''m not sure I quite undestand what's going on, though. Or rather, I don't fully understand the significance and the likely resolution. Any chance that this could have a net positive outcome? Or is it more likely to get worse before it gets better?

They overthrew a US-backed dictator in Tunisia, so now the other countries with US backed dictators are wanting to have a go.  Egypt is more significant because it is a major Middle Eastern/North African power, and both Israel and the US have relied on it being a good partner to their regional goals since Sadat made peace.  Egypt also shares borders with the Occupied Territories, making it a player in that particular drama (they sealed their borders in 2009 to aid the Israeli Operation Cast Lead, for example).

If they succeed like the Tunisians did, I would consider that a brilliant outcome.  But the situation there is a lot more uncertain, because of Egypts size and strategic importance,

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 02:08:53 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:05:57 PM
There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

The North is where the Fijiians are, IIRC.  They take no shit.

IIRC, it's the Fijiian battalion in the North, the Columbians in the middle, Americans on the South.

I can only hope the Egyptian protestors get no funny ideas about driving out foreign troops until they have their own army, then.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:12:18 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 02:08:53 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:05:57 PM
There are reported protests in Al Areesh, Northern Sinai right now, in fact.

The North is where the Fijiians are, IIRC.  They take no shit.

IIRC, it's the Fijiian battalion in the North, the Columbians in the middle, Americans on the South.

I can only hope the Egyptian protestors get no funny ideas about driving out foreign troops until they have their own army, then.

I don't think they will...The Egyptians are  - or were, when I was there - quite friendly to the MFO.  It's kept them from getting ploughed under by the Egyptian and Israeli governments for some time.

That's good.  The last thing the protestors need to be doing is giving people (ie; Israel) reasons to stage a foreign intervention and "calm the situation down".  Of course that would be pretty much the stupidest move Israel could make right now, but Bibi has an astounding knack for being a complete moron...

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:10:45 PM
They overthrew a US-backed dictator in Tunisia, so now the other countries with US backed dictators are wanting to have a go.  Egypt is more significant because it is a major Middle Eastern/North African power, and both Israel and the US have relied on it being a good partner to their regional goals since Sadat made peace.  Egypt also shares borders with the Occupied Territories, making it a player in that particular drama (they sealed their borders in 2009 to aid the Israeli Operation Cast Lead, for example).

If they succeed like the Tunisians did, I would consider that a brilliant outcome.  But the situation there is a lot more uncertain, because of Egypts size and strategic importance,

That clear's it up nicely, yes. My only question now, is what happens in the Middle East if Egypt goes wildcard? I don't expect an answer to that until it's all said and done, though.

The revolts will spread even further.  Yemen is already seeing protests and Syria has some historic links with Egypt...it would leave Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US with a lot less friends in the region, and put pressure on SA in particular to reform further.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:24:47 PM
The revolts will spread even further.  Yemen is already seeing protests and Syria has some historic links with Egypt...it would leave Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US with a lot less friends in the region, and put pressure on SA in particular to reform further.

If Egypt goes, do you see SA or Israel taking some ballsier approaches with Yemen and Syria? 

Its possible.  SA has seen Yemen as within its private sphere of influence for years, and Israel is always up for a scrap with Syria, though it would depend on the exact nature of the movement in Syria itself (since the Syrian government, despite a subtle pro-Western shift, still fights Israel for influence in Lebanon).  Jordan would be a more worrying case for Israel, Saudi Arabia and America though, especially as Jordan is seen as highly stable and the Hashemite Royal Family are descended from the Prophet Mohammed's clan.

JOEBIDENLOL

QuoteAsked if he would characterize Mubarak as a dictator Biden responded: "Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with – with Israel. ... I would not refer to him as a dictator."

Oh, the internet has been turned off in Egypt, by the way.  All of it.

http://nisralnasr.blogspot.com/2011/01/font-face-font-family-cambria-p.html

QuoteUnlike Tunis, the army is probably quite willing to use force to back up the police. The army does benefit from the current institutional arrangement.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:38:02 PM
JOEBIDENLOL

QuoteAsked if he would characterize Mubarak as a dictator Biden responded: "Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with – with Israel. ... I would not refer to him as a dictator."

Oh, the internet has been turned off in Egypt, by the way.  All of it.

Wasn't sure that was possible.

Not sure about the technical aspects of it, but I'm pretty sure that on the political end, Mubarak asked the ISPs to stop routing any traffic until further notice.

Also, the Army has been deployed in Cairo, and curfew has been declared.  So far, the protestors are warmly greeting the Army and requesting protection from the police by them, according to Al-Jazeera.  The headquarters of the NDP ruling party which Mubarak is the leader of, have been set on fire.

Collection of helpful links about the protests

http://thedailywh.at/post/2977687816/egyptian-unrest-news-round-up-above-smoke

More ripple effects.

U.S. stocks tumbled and oil prices rallied Friday, as investors grew nervous about political unrest in Egypt.
{snip}
Investors are worried that that the situation in Egypt could intensify over the weekend, and are taking some money off the table ahead of that possibility.
"Political turmoil is not good for the stability of the market, and Egypt is a populous country that borders one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, so that's getting investors nervous," said Peter Tuz, president at Chase Investment Counsel.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/28/mark...ex.htm?iid=RNM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:24:47 PM
The revolts will spread even further.  Yemen is already seeing protests and Syria has some historic links with Egypt...it would leave Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US with a lot less friends in the region, and put pressure on SA in particular to reform further.

Pretty soon we are going to need programs to tell the players apart.

They followed days of unrest that have roiled several Arab countries. Demonstrations in Tunisia led the president to flee that North African nation. Then came protests in Algeria, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/28/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=C1

Al-Jazeera reports shots being fired around the Ministry of Information.  Lots of them.  Sounds like someone is making a ballsy move.

If the people win this, well, wildfire?

guess this belongs here really

(http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/3479/arbornetworksegyptvisua.jpg)

Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Wow. So the fuse to the powder keg that is the ME may have just been lit.

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:52:36 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Wow. So the fuse to the powder keg that is the ME may have just been lit.

What?  Why would you say that?

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 09:53:42 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:52:36 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Wow. So the fuse to the powder keg that is the ME may have just been lit.

What?  Why would you say that?

If the Egyptians are successful then Yemen and Jordan will be encouraged. Who knows what else will happen in the next few days?

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:56:24 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 09:53:42 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:52:36 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Wow. So the fuse to the powder keg that is the ME may have just been lit.

What?  Why would you say that?

If the Egyptians are successful then Yemen and Jordan will be encouraged. Who knows what else will happen in the next few days?

Yes, but we have no idea what changes - if any - will result from a successful coup in Egypt.

It's an incredibly unstable time there, but it's a little too early to be an alarmist, IMO.

That's why I said it 'May' be lit.

UPDATE 35, 4:30 p.m. EST: Al Jazeera reports that top regime and NDP party officials are leaving Egypt on private jets. No word on Mubarak. Also, the Speaker of the Egyptian parliament is supposed to release a statement soon. It remains to be seen whether that will actually happen. It's now nearly midnight in Egypt.

If you want to go with Mother Jones. Dammit it's hard to find reliable sources right now.

The speaker of parliament said an "important matter" would be announced shortly on state TV. President Hosni Mubarak has yet to make an address.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11777943

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:02:43 PM
UPDATE 35, 4:30 p.m. EST: Al Jazeera reports that top regime and NDP party officials are leaving Egypt on private jets. No word on Mubarak. Also, the Speaker of the Egyptian parliament is supposed to release a statement soon. It remains to be seen whether that will actually happen. It's now nearly midnight in Egypt.

If you want to go with Mother Jones. Dammit it's hard to find reliable sources right now.

NBC's Engel reports private planes leaving Cairo airport:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/  Right hand side.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

He said that he's listening to the protesters and he's going to do some reforms and allow more freedom, so I guess everything's going to be OK.

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:10:25 PM
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Whoa... fuck. New government tomorrow, eh? Did he make veiled threats to start revoking freedoms? I was having a trouble follwing it due to the translator's accent and an important phone call I received. So, what happens now?

It will do nothing. He fired the entire government except for himself and announced that he will appoint another government tomorrow.

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:32:42 PM
It will do nothing. He fired the entire government except for himself and announced that he will appoint another government tomorrow.

Figured as much. Think it'll escalate?

I don't expect it to de-escalate. It was a Hail Mary pass with 1 second left on the clock.

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:39:30 PM
I don't expect it to de-escalate. It was a Hail Mary pass with 1 second left on the clock.

Good point. Wonder what Cain will have to say. It would seem like Mubarak made a lot of statements that didn't actually say anything. And it would appear the protesters were not convinced by his words, either.

Hey Roger, their revolution is being televised!  :)

Quote from: Doktor Phox on January 28, 2011, 10:43:49 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:39:30 PM
I don't expect it to de-escalate. It was a Hail Mary pass with 1 second left on the clock.

Good point. Wonder what Cain will have to say. It would seem like Mubarak made a lot of statements that didn't actually say anything. And it would appear the protesters were not convinced by his words, either.

Where did Cain go?

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:57:02 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on January 28, 2011, 10:43:49 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:39:30 PM
I don't expect it to de-escalate. It was a Hail Mary pass with 1 second left on the clock.

Good point. Wonder what Cain will have to say. It would seem like Mubarak made a lot of statements that didn't actually say anything. And it would appear the protesters were not convinced by his words, either.

Where did Cain go?

Bed maybe? It's like 11for him now, isn't it?

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:02:43 PM
UPDATE 35, 4:30 p.m. EST: Al Jazeera reports that top regime and NDP party officials are leaving Egypt on private jets. No word on Mubarak. Also, the Speaker of the Egyptian parliament is supposed to release a statement soon. It remains to be seen whether that will actually happen. It's now nearly midnight in Egypt.

If you want to go with Mother Jones. Dammit it's hard to find reliable sources right now.

Al-Jazeera, in my experience, are almost always reliable, except when reporting on Qatar, where they are based and funded through.  They're some of the last actual journalists on this goddamn planet and, it probably wont surprise you too much to find out, mostly made up of old BBC Middle East reporters.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 11:08:37 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:02:43 PM
UPDATE 35, 4:30 p.m. EST: Al Jazeera reports that top regime and NDP party officials are leaving Egypt on private jets. No word on Mubarak. Also, the Speaker of the Egyptian parliament is supposed to release a statement soon. It remains to be seen whether that will actually happen. It's now nearly midnight in Egypt.

If you want to go with Mother Jones. Dammit it's hard to find reliable sources right now.

Al-Jazeera, in my experience, are almost always reliable, except when reporting on Qatar, where they are based and funded through.  They're some of the last actual journalists on this goddamn planet and, it probably wont surprise you too much to find out, mostly made up of old BBC Middle East reporters.

Were you able to watch the speech? If so, your reaction?

At this point I'm more concerned with them being able to get reliable information themselves rather than any bias.

NPR is reporting that one of the Egyptian ISPs, which represents about 8% of the market there, didn't shut down.  They don't know why.

Quote from: Requia ☣ on January 28, 2011, 11:12:02 PM
At this point I'm more concerned with them being able to get reliable information themselves rather than any bias.

NPR is reporting that one of the Egyptian ISPs, which represents about 8% of the market there, didn't shut down.  They don't know why.

aljezeer english, live stream.

Quote from: Doktor Phox on January 28, 2011, 11:02:29 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:57:02 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on January 28, 2011, 10:43:49 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 10:39:30 PM
I don't expect it to de-escalate. It was a Hail Mary pass with 1 second left on the clock.

Good point. Wonder what Cain will have to say. It would seem like Mubarak made a lot of statements that didn't actually say anything. And it would appear the protesters were not convinced by his words, either.

Where did Cain go?

Bed maybe? It's like 11for him now, isn't it?

Coffee, actually.  I'm not feeling well today, so I slept earlier.

As for Mubarak's statements...the Egyptian people are not stupid.  Corruption has flourished because he has allowed it to.  While the food prices, which seem to be a primary cause of the revolt (funny how often that turns out to be the case, historically) are not his problem, if his regime were more along the lines of, say, some of the SE Asian authoritarian governments, who seem to be able to combine authoritarianism with a ruthless attitude to corruption and officials throwing their weight around in unsactioned manners, then he may have had a more understanding population and consequently not so much of a problem on his hands.

David Cameron, incidentally, seems to have been more outspoken than the American government on the need for reform and less supportive of Mubarak's government generally...its things like this that make it hard to consider the coalition government a complete failure (especially when Blair pretty much called for the Army to start firing on crowds in whatever rag was printing his views today).

Quote from: Requia ☣ on January 28, 2011, 11:12:02 PM
At this point I'm more concerned with them being able to get reliable information themselves rather than any bias.

NPR is reporting that one of the Egyptian ISPs, which represents about 8% of the market there, didn't shut down.  They don't know why.

That is the thing.  However their journalists themselves seem well trained enough to hedge their bets according to previous experience and make clear when they are speculating - it is quite refreshing, in fact.

I've also read that the blocks on the internet can be gotten around by not using domain names, but the IP addresses the sites correspond to instead.  I assume the more technical people on the site are familiar with this technique, I have heard of it before but do not know the name for it.

The protests are continuing and if anything even more people are on the streets.

Sounds like they shut down the DNS servers.

For those not aware, DNS servers take a website name and give your computer the IP address, which is what you actually need.

That would do it for the most part, but its a very temporary solution.  Its not terribly difficult to change to a public DNS server, so once word gets around people will start doing that.  A few days (maybe hours) later you'll probably see a program going around that will do it for you.

Yeah, that's the one.

People are already spreading workarounds on the web, it will only be so long before some Egyptian geek gets hold of most of the major site's IP addresses and starts spreading them to everyone he knows.

Mubarak supporters will knock that kids teeth out, but he'll be a damn hero regardless.

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 11:25:34 PM
Yeah, that's the one.

People are already spreading workarounds on the web, it will only be so long before some Egyptian geek gets hold of most of the major site's IP addresses and starts spreading them to everyone he knows.

Mubarak supporters will knock that kids teeth out, but he'll be a damn hero regardless.

I sense he is running a bit low on supporters right now.

If he had so few supporters, he wouldn't be a dictator.  He'd be face down in a ditch somewhere, with someone more popular with the right people running the country.

While quite a few are fleeing like rats, you always have some die-hards.  That's why setting the Ministry of Information on fire was a brilliant move, because thats where most of them probably are.

John Kerry just got shredded in an interview on Al Jazeer.

Details?

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 02:38:02 PM
JOEBIDENLOL

QuoteAsked if he would characterize Mubarak as a dictator Biden responded: "Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with – with Israel. ... I would not refer to him as a dictator."

Oh, the internet has been turned off in Egypt, by the way.  All of it.

Yeah, this makes me antsy. A friend from high school is at the American University at Cairo right now, and the first day's protest took place right outside her dorms.

Army looks a little bored.

(http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Slideshows/_production/gss-110129-egypt/gss-110129-egypt-default.grid-10x2.jpg)

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 29, 2011, 05:27:18 PM
Army looks a little bored.

One of their captains sure doesn't.  :)

(http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/04kg1RueOVavw/350x.jpg)

QuoteProtesters carry an army captain on their shoulders after he tore up a poster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Tahrir Square on January 29th, 2011 in Cairo, Egypt.

ling (http://iplextra.indiatimes.com/photo/04kg1RueOVavw?q=Cairo)

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2011/01/30/alg_protesters_cairo_1.jpg)

QuoteThree Egyptian protesters were killed and others wounded Saturday when police in downtown Cairo opened fire on a massive crowd demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/01/29/2011-01-29_egypt_protests_turn_deadly_as_police_open_fire_on_massive_crowd_of_demonstrators.html?r=news

Yeah, the police are still trying to shut it down. Last night on al jazeera tv I saw some protesters remove a policeman from a vehicle, set him on the curb and then treat his head wounds. After they took his club and shield away from him.

(http://static.bbc.co.uk/wwhomepage/ic/newsimg/promo/51026000/jpg/_51026720_011154527-1.jpg)


:lulz:

OH GOD I CANNOT STAND THE IRONY:

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/01/155585.htm

QuoteIt needs to be an orderly, peaceful transition to real democracy, not faux democracy like the elections we saw in Iran two years ago, where you have one election 30 years ago and then the people just keep staying in power and become less and less responsive to their people.

:horrormirth:

 :lulz:

(http://positivity.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/protest-in-egypt.jpg)
(http://muslimmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/230680480.jpg)
(http://media.idahostatesman.com/smedia/2011/01/28/10/163-s313-APTOPIX_Mideast_Egypt_Protest.sff.embedded.prod_affiliate.36.jpg)

Sorry can't get them smaller. -.-

Quote from: Cain on January 31, 2011, 04:55:17 PM
OH GOD I CANNOT STAND THE IRONY:

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/01/155585.htm

QuoteIt needs to be an orderly, peaceful transition to real democracy, not faux democracy like the elections we saw in Iran two years ago, where you have one election 30 years ago and then the people just keep staying in power and become less and less responsive to their people.

:horrormirth:

:horrormirthfacepalm:

As anti-government demonstrations persist across Egypt and the country's military firmly puts its boots on the ground to establish order, the army said it won't deploy "violence" against the people.

A military spokesman said on state TV Monday that "freedom of opinion in a peaceful manner is allowed for all" and the "armed forces are aware of the legitimate demands of the honest citizens."

"The presence of the armed forces in the Egyptian streets is for your benefit to protect your safety and peace," said the spokesman for the army, which has been regarded favorably by many protesters who despise the police and see that institution as an ally.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/31/egypt.protests/index.html?hpt=T1

Well. Final nail in the coffin?

So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 31, 2011, 07:34:33 PM
So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

I agree.

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 31, 2011, 07:38:45 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 31, 2011, 07:34:33 PM
So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

I agree.

If their military was REALLY smart, they'd start using their medical corps to treat injuries on both sides.  Assuming they haven't already.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 31, 2011, 07:55:57 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 31, 2011, 07:38:45 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 31, 2011, 07:34:33 PM
So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

I agree.

If their military was REALLY smart, they'd start using their medical corps to treat injuries on both sides.  Assuming they haven't already.

I saw a clip on AlJazeera before it was shut down that showed some protesters removing a policeman from a vehicle. The cop was trying to protect himself but the crowd took his baton, shield and helmet from him. Then they gently sat him on the curb and treated his wounds. It was pretty impressive.

Calling it now: an alliance of intelligence officers and medium-high ranked military personnel with links to the American government.  They'll ally with the protestors to oust Mubarak (or, more likely, stand aside and do nothing while the protestors do the heavy lifting), establish a more open government with some civil society input, maybe even a bit of power for the Muslim Brotherhood...so long as overall foreign policy and military strategy remains in the hands of the securocrats.

Quote from: Cain on February 01, 2011, 02:47:13 PM
Calling it now: an alliance of intelligence officers and medium-high ranked military personnel with links to the American government.  They'll ally with the protestors to oust Mubarak (or, more likely, stand aside and do nothing while the protestors do the heavy lifting), establish a more open government with some civil society input, maybe even a bit of power for the Muslim Brotherhood...so long as overall foreign policy and military strategy remains in the hands of the securocrats.

You've been peeking at the CIA playbook, haven't you?  :lulz:

Question: Currently, the military has said (certain video aside) that they will not harm peaceful protesters.

When do you think they'll finally say, "fuck it, start shooting"?

Phox, actually I was chatting about it with some China experts.  None of us have any special Middle East knowledge, but generally we know our stuff.

LMNO, if my scenario is correct, they wont.  If its not...when the foreign cameras are no longer present.

Overall the peaceful nature of all of this is almost surreal. Millions of protesters and only roughly 100 deaths. Now that the police are off the streets there is no more violence from the protesters.

This could possibly be the most civilized revolution ever.

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

No agency could make it peaceful. I tend to think it has to be the nature of the people. No one is driving the bus here. It makes me want to visit one day.

Quote from: Charley Brown on February 01, 2011, 03:24:43 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

No agency could make it peaceful. I tend to think it has to be the nature of the people. No one is driving the bus here. It makes me want to visit one day.

Make it peaceful? No. Bribe/influence the military to not shoot up the civvies, more likely. I don't think the protesters are under any influence, and they are being incredibly peaceful. But given the way these sorts of things usually play out when men like Mubarak are in power, the lack of violence is absolutely astonishing, and I can't quite bring myself to believe it isn't either a ploy to use as propaganda, or a backroom deal made with foreign powers.

Also, thinking about the domino effect. If a peaceful revolution could occur in Egypt, then that might give Saudi Arabia and Israel more room to throw their weight around in Syria and Yemen if they get violent, though we will see. I'm probably way off the mark.

But you could be right, Charley. I'm jsut so jaded by the politics of the Middle East as I understand them, and the politics of the US in relation to the Middle East to have that much faith in humanity.  :sad:

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

Hogwash.  If the CIA were involved, they'd have blown up the Sudan by accident a week ago.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on February 01, 2011, 03:47:42 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

Hogwash.  If the CIA were involved, they'd have blown up the Sudan by accident a week ago.

You have a good point, Roger. I tend to underestimate the staggering incompetence of the CIA. I blame Tom Clancy novels.  :lulz:

heh, ripple effects.

The king of Jordan dismissed his government Tuesday and appointed a new prime minister with orders to implement political reform.

The dismissal follows several protests calling for change in Jordan -- protests that echo demonstrations that have swept across North Africa and the Middle East in the last few weeks.

King Abdullah II asked Marouf Al Bakhit to form a government in Jordan that will implement "genuine political reform," the Royal Court said in a statement.

The government will "take practical steps, quick and concrete, to launch a process of genuine political reform" and "comprehensive development," according to a letter from the king to Al Bakhit. It also will act to strengthen democracy, the letter said.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/01/jordan.government/index.html?hpt=C1

Quote from: Charley Brown on February 01, 2011, 03:57:01 PM
heh, ripple effects.

The king of Jordan dismissed his government Tuesday and appointed a new prime minister with orders to implement political reform.

The dismissal follows several protests calling for change in Jordan -- protests that echo demonstrations that have swept across North Africa and the Middle East in the last few weeks.

King Abdullah II asked Marouf Al Bakhit to form a government in Jordan that will implement "genuine political reform," the Royal Court said in a statement.

The government will "take practical steps, quick and concrete, to launch a process of genuine political reform" and "comprehensive development," according to a letter from the king to Al Bakhit. It also will act to strengthen democracy, the letter said.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/01/jordan.government/index.html?hpt=C1

Hmmm. Political posturing or genuine "genuine political reform"? Tough call.

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

You have absolutely no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Why would the CIA gamble with the stability of a dependable foreign dictator who has been their ally for three decades?  In order to believe that scenario, you'd have to assume the CIA give a shit about democracy, a laughable assertion on the face of it.  You'd then have to believe the CIA somehow hid all knowledge of this planning from the White House, State Dept and Pentagon.

In fact, a foreign influenced revolution would be more violent, especially if the CIA were behind it.  The CIA dont shy away from terrorism when it suits their purposes, and in which case the coup would definitely come from within the military and intelligence circles, instead of spontaneous street protests.

This isn't fucking Iran.  You do not overthrow dictators unless your own allies are going to benefit.  Mubarak was a pliable ally on most issues, and the ones he was not pliable on were not important enough for him to be overthrown for.

Hey, if a new government comes in, and they are much more (actively) pro-Palestinian, what would that mean for Gaza?  Would they open borders, provide supplies, etc?

Quote from: LMNO, PhD on February 01, 2011, 06:21:02 PM
Hey, if a new government comes in, and they are much more (actively) pro-Palestinian, what would that mean for Gaza?  Would they open borders, provide supplies, etc?

They might provide supplies, but they won't open their borders.  EVERYONE, I mean EVERYONE, hates the Palestinians over there.  Even the Bedouins hate them like they were Pol Pot's personal testicle lickers.

Quote from: LMNO, PhD on February 01, 2011, 06:21:02 PM
Hey, if a new government comes in, and they are much more (actively) pro-Palestinian, what would that mean for Gaza?  Would they open borders, provide supplies, etc?

Good question.

Quote from: Cain on February 01, 2011, 04:11:57 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

You have absolutely no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Why would the CIA gamble with the stability of a dependable foreign dictator who has been their ally for three decades?  In order to believe that scenario, you'd have to assume the CIA give a shit about democracy, a laughable assertion on the face of it.  You'd then have to believe the CIA somehow hid all knowledge of this planning from the White House, State Dept and Pentagon.

In fact, a foreign influenced revolution would be more violent, especially if the CIA were behind it.  The CIA dont shy away from terrorism when it suits their purposes, and in which case the coup would definitely come from within the military and intelligence circles, instead of spontaneous street protests.

This isn't fucking Iran.  You do not overthrow dictators unless your own allies are going to benefit.  Mubarak was a pliable ally on most issues, and the ones he was not pliable on were not important enough for him to be overthrown for.

That's what I was thinking.

I may be off on this, but I hear that Abdullah II has pretty broad support by the population. It may be to head off any unrest, but if I'm not confusing him with some other monarch, he's probably not just doing it for political posturing, but rather seeing that its the best way to keep anything from erupting.

Also, I've been wondering this for for the past couple of days. What does this potentially mean for Iran? Could we see a sequel to what happened there last year?

Mubarik gives historic Butthurt Address, promises to not run again, says "I've spent enough time serving you ungrateful bastards Egypt".

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on February 01, 2011, 09:29:09 PM
Mubarik gives historic Butthurt Address, promises to not run again, says "I've spent enough time serving you ungrateful bastards Egypt".

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

LOL.

I think he has been planning to install his son for some time now anyway. This guy just isn't getting the message.

Quote from: Cain on February 01, 2011, 04:11:57 PM

Quote from: Doktor Phox on February 01, 2011, 03:22:20 PM
Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack.  :lulz:

You have absolutely no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Why would the CIA gamble with the stability of a dependable foreign dictator who has been their ally for three decades?  In order to believe that scenario, you'd have to assume the CIA give a shit about democracy, a laughable assertion on the face of it.  You'd then have to believe the CIA somehow hid all knowledge of this planning from the White House, State Dept and Pentagon.

In fact, a foreign influenced revolution would be more violent, especially if the CIA were behind it.  The CIA dont shy away from terrorism when it suits their purposes, and in which case the coup would definitely come from within the military and intelligence circles, instead of spontaneous street protests.

This isn't fucking Iran.  You do not overthrow dictators unless your own allies are going to benefit.  Mubarak was a pliable ally on most issues, and the ones he was not pliable on were not important enough for him to be overthrown for.

It wasn't obvious I was being facetious? I thought Roger got it. I thought the last sentence and the lulz would be indication of that. Ah well, they can't all be funny. Never stopped me from trying yet.

Clashes have erupted in Cairo between supporters of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and demonstrators calling on him to step down immediately.

Thousands of rival protesters have been throwing stones at each other and fighting with fists, whips and sticks in the capital's Tahrir Square.

Earlier, the army urged people to return home after nine days of anti-government demonstrations.

Mr Mubarak has pledged he will not stand for re-election in September.

On Tuesday, hundreds of thousands had protested across the country against Mr Mubarak, the culmination of more than a week of demonstrations that have left about 300 people dead according to UN estimates.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12345656

Now it's starting to look more like a revolution.

No matter the outcome it's fucking impressive.  People actually got out and fucking DID something.  You don't see stuff like this in the US.  We just bitch and moan and put a one line rant as our facebook status.

Quote from: Niamh on February 02, 2011, 04:36:55 PM
No matter the outcome it's fucking impressive.  People actually got out and fucking DID something.  You don't see stuff like this in the US.  We just bitch and moan and put a one line rant as our facebook status.

It's because we are worried about the important things.

It's a multi-tasking world, where people walking and texting or listening to an iPod are everywhere.

Sara Freund loves listening to her iPod while she runs errands, but New York State Senator Carl Kruger wants her to turn it off - at least while she's going places. Kruger has proposed legislation about distracted walking that would ban texting, talking or using iPods while walking or running.
http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=572746

Quote from: Charley Brown on February 02, 2011, 04:40:48 PM

Quote from: Niamh on February 02, 2011, 04:36:55 PM
No matter the outcome it's fucking impressive.  People actually got out and fucking DID something.  You don't see stuff like this in the US.  We just bitch and moan and put a one line rant as our facebook status.

It's because we are worried about the important things.

It's a multi-tasking world, where people walking and texting or listening to an iPod are everywhere.

Sara Freund loves listening to her iPod while she runs errands, but New York State Senator Carl Kruger wants her to turn it off - at least while she's going places. Kruger has proposed legislation about distracted walking that would ban texting, talking or using iPods while walking or running.
http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=572746

I completely understand no texting while driving but while walking?  WTF?  That is insane.

It's the government we deserve.

The reason why they're getting out an doing shit is because of where they are. People will deal with a gradual reduction in freedoms. Once those freedoms are gone, they'll put up with it for a certain amount of time until they just can't deal with it anymore. We're nowhere near that point yet.

Quote
It's because we are worried about the important things.

It's a multi-tasking world, where people walking and texting or listening to an iPod are everywhere.

Sara Freund loves listening to her iPod while she runs errands, but New York State Senator Carl Kruger wants her to turn it off - at least while she's going places. Kruger has proposed legislation about distracted walking that would ban texting, talking or using iPods while walking or running.
http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=572746

Why would they ban that? Don't they know the joys of watching stupid mofos run into stuff and hurt themselves. Myself I live for that kind of shit.

Eta: Noticed that my post was not in sync with Cb's. >.>

Yeah, the people of Egypt still have it a little worse than most in the USA.

I can't believe that sonofabitch Mubarak. Last night I was all like "well if he's honestly going to manage to peaceful transition that's probably for the best". That lying douchebag. He was planning on escalating violence all along. Twitter is saying *all* pro-Mubarak thugs caught so far had gov't or party ID on them.

Looks to me like, since he control State TV, his strategy all along, including last night and today, has been to spin a narrative in which the people spoke, he listened, but the people couldn't control themselves and caused violence to break out. There was also the looting a few days ago, also reportedly perpetrated by his people. He probably aims to beat up the protesters, blame them for it, and make himself look like the responsible, reasonable adult in this mess. Maybe he'll try to escalate the violence to the point that he can "reluctantly" decide to stay in power for a while longer in order to resolve the chaos supposedly caused by the protesters.

It seems like from day 1, the protesters were peaceful or only mildly aggressive, and Mubarak is the man who can at any moment turn the dial to escalate or de-escalate violence. So first he makes the protests look like violent riots, then lets things calm down so he can go on State TV saying how he's heard the people and wants to oversee the changes they demand (except for his immediate resignation). Then, seeing as the crowds didn't immediately say "kthxbye" and go home, he escalates it again so he can make them look unreasonable and convince people they are the enemy rather than him.

It's gonna get ugly, but there is no way the Egyptian people will ever get over this and forgive him. He said he wants to die on Egyptian soil and be judged by history. Well, the day they drag him out and beat him to death will become a national holiday. Mark my words.

The latest on twitter: lights in the square have been turned off, police reportedly have orders to open fire. Army still can't decide whether to separate the two sides, leave, or take a side. A massacre might be about to commence.

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 05:46:12 PM
The latest on twitter: lights in the square have been turned off, police reportedly have orders to open fire. Army still can't decide whether to separate the two sides, leave, or take a side. A massacre might be about to commence.

Fuck.

That Twitter thing where people call in and the crowd transcribes their voices into a tweet just said the army opened fire. Waiting to hear on who.

Hmm, it's been five minutes and no more mention of that... I guess it was either wrong, just a few shots, or something so bad that nobody in the area is tweeting right now.

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 05:46:12 PM
The latest on twitter: lights in the square have been turned off, police reportedly have orders to open fire. Army still can't decide whether to separate the two sides, leave, or take a side. A massacre might be about to commence.

Bad move on Mubarik's part.  He will from now on face two situations:

1.  Succeed, and spend the rest of his life riding a tiger, or

2.  Fail, and get put up against a suitable backstop with a blindfold and a cigarette.

Likewise, the army better shit or get off the pot.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on February 02, 2011, 05:56:03 PM

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 05:46:12 PM
The latest on twitter: lights in the square have been turned off, police reportedly have orders to open fire. Army still can't decide whether to separate the two sides, leave, or take a side. A massacre might be about to commence.

Bad move on Mubarik's part.  He will from now on face two situations:

1.  Succeed, and spend the rest of his life riding a tiger, or

2.  Fail, and get put up against a suitable backstop with a blindfold and a cigarette.

Likewise, the army better shit or get off the pot.

If he remains stubborn option 2 is very likely.

From MSNBC:

QuoteBloodied anti-government protesters were taken to makeshift clinics in mosques and alleyways. Some pleaded for protection from soldiers stationed at the square, but the soldiers did nothing to stop the violence, beyond firing an occasional shot in the air.

Yeah, AJE doing a recap of the day and it sounds like the army literally stood aside and let gov't goons move into the square with clubs to beat protestors... Not a good sign at all. I wonder if they were actually ordered by Mubarak the other day to be nice to the protestors at first and promise not to fire on them...

Yemen's president seems to have a better grip on reality:

Quote from: MSNBCSANAA, Yemen — The Yemeni president told parliament Wednesday that he would not seek another term in office or hand power to his son — an apparent reaction to protests in this impoverished nation that have been inspired by Tunisia's revolt and the turmoil in Egypt.

The U.S.-allied Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for nearly 32 years, spoke to lawmakers in both houses of the assembly on the eve of mass rallies that the opposition has called for Thursday in all Yemeni provinces.

You realize that's exactly what Mubarak promised last night, right?
I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes that Mubarak waited for a week of massive protests first and Saleh preempted them. The Egyptian street apparently knew right away that "not gonna run for another term, not quitting before it ends" is just a ruse to hold on to power... No idea if the situation in Yemen is remotely the same... But I hear in Egypt this kind of promise has been made several times before to get people to stop protesting and be good little citizens again.

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 06:17:09 PM
You realize that's exactly what Mubarak promised last night, right?
I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes that Mubarak waited for a week of massive protests first and Saleh preempted them. The Egyptian street apparently knew right away that "not gonna run for another term, not quitting before it ends" is just a ruse to hold on to power... No idea if the situation in Yemen is remotely the same... But I hear in Egypt this kind of promise has been made several times before to get people to stop protesting and be good little citizens again.

Yemen has different issues.  Specifically, religious nuts.

Oy.

Apparently, the army is now stopping from citizens to go into the square to help the wounded.

This doth not bode well.

Oy.

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 06:27:17 PM
Oy.

Apparently, the army is now stopping from citizens to go into the square to help the wounded.

This doth not bode well.

Oy.

Source?

aljazeera back on the air.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Looks like Mubarak has settled on the Tianneman option after all.

After using plains clothes officers, army members still loyal to the regime and paid thugs to go on a rampage of looting (designed to increase the levels of chaos associated with the protestors, thus bringing about calls for order), letting prisoners loose (allegedly) and locking down the government buildings, it seems Interior Ministry and loyalist paramiliarties are moving in for the kill.

As far as I can see, the military are still unwilling to attack the protestors, or let anyone else do so.  Someone organized some very effective flank protection with metal shields for the protestors, and an APC shot tracers over pro-Mubarak lines, presumably to scare them off.

It isn't looking good though.  Seems like pretty much everyone in Tahrir Square is injured in some way or another, and protestors have started stockpiling rocks for a counterattack.  The mood is being described as fatalistic and they're convinced Mubarak is sending in the stormtroopers to eliminate them all.

Quote from: Cain on February 03, 2011, 03:39:05 AM
Looks like Mubarak has settled on the Tianneman option after all.

After using plains clothes officers, army members still loyal to the regime and paid thugs to go on a rampage of looting (designed to increase the levels of chaos associated with the protestors, thus bringing about calls for order), letting prisoners loose (allegedly) and locking down the government buildings, it seems Interior Ministry and loyalist paramiliarties are moving in for the kill.

As far as I can see, the military are still unwilling to attack the protestors, or let anyone else do so.  Someone organized some very effective flank protection with metal shields for the protestors, and an APC shot tracers over pro-Mubarak lines, presumably to scare them off.

It isn't looking good though.  Seems like pretty much everyone in Tahrir Square is injured in some way or another, and protestors have started stockpiling rocks for a counterattack.  The mood is being described as fatalistic and they're convinced Mubarak is sending in the stormtroopers to eliminate them all.

:sad:

I hope it turns out alright, but I have no expectations that it will

You know, it just occurs to me that the Egyptian Army may have played everyone here.  Their man, Omar Suleiman (military intelligence) is now Vice-President, and much more popular than the heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, who ran away to London with his tail inbetween his legs.  The Americans are giving public platitudes to them.  The protestors and the international community at large respect them.  They locked down the protests into a peaceful street occupation at a time when it looked like they might be heading to occupy ministry buildings, and they let the paramilitary thugs and hired guns of Mubarak pass their military checkpoints.

Everything is revolving around them, making them the fulcrum of power in this situation.

Quote from: Cain on February 03, 2011, 01:14:01 PM
You know, it just occurs to me that the Egyptian Army may have played everyone here.  Their man, Omar Suleiman (military intelligence) is now Vice-President, and much more popular than the heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, who ran away to London with his tail inbetween his legs.  The Americans are giving public platitudes to them.  The protestors and the international community at large respect them.  They locked down the protests into a peaceful street occupation at a time when it looked like they might be heading to occupy ministry buildings, and they let the paramilitary thugs and hired guns of Mubarak pass their military checkpoints.

Everything is revolving around them, making them the fulcrum of power in this situation.

Seeing how it all plays out will be interesting indeed.

That's a pretty good point, Cain.  Do you mind if I pass that on?

Not at all.  Some Mid-East specialists I know have already suggested this is the case (as usual, when you want a professional and unbiased region or country-specific opinion, associate political science and history professors are the ones to ask), and while I was reluctant to accept it at first, a more general overview of last night's violence suggest this is the case.

It's still very much up in the air as to whether the April 6th Movement can regain momentum and win over sympathetic military officers, and how badly this has damaged Mubarak's regime.  Egypt is heavily dependent on trade through the Suez, foreign investment and tourism, all of which have been hit by this protest.  The regime may well still be on its final feet, though it may take years for anyone to realize it.

It's worth remembering the French revolution didn't just happen overnight either, but was a culmination of months and years of sporadic uprisings and activities.

Gee, 'this might resemble the french revolution' isn't a terrifying thought at all  :horrormirth:

I was thinking about this "peaceful military solution" in just that light yesterday, Cain.  They have won the "hearts and minds" worldwide in their sympathetic turn--but who's to say they won't use it to their own advantage, as short of a coup, what could carry off the dictator who refuses to leave?

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on February 02, 2011, 06:40:05 PM

Quote from: VERBL on February 02, 2011, 06:27:17 PM
Oy.

Apparently, the army is now stopping from citizens to go into the square to help the wounded.

This doth not bode well.

Oy.

Source?

Sorry, had to go out shortly after that and was AFK all of yesterday. Source was live Twitter reports. The situation has since evolved in ways that aren't clear to me.

It doesn't seem like the protesters are in any way relenting, and safety in numbers is apparently keeping Mubarak's thugs from doing anything about it.
I think Mubarak's "I would leave, I'm sick of this, I just can't leave because of the chaos it would cause" (which I understand he said yesterday) is probably only half true. He's saying it so things can calm down and he can wrangle the country back into a form that suits him. Since he followed up his promises of Tuesday night with guys on horses wielding sticks, I doubt anyone is buying anything he says anymore.

The whole thing might get drawn on for a while unless the army intervenes. Indeed it seems whatever side the army takes wins automatically. But a Tiananmen-esque solution seems to me unlikely with such massive protests (they can't very well shoot down whole percentage points of the population -- that would ruin the economy for years to come!), so it might just have to end with Mubarak stepping down sooner rather than later, inshallah.

The economy may be the issue that decides it, actually.  The Egyptian economy was never the strongest in the first place, but with all of Cairo basically protesting, no-one is doing work.  Tourists are leaving.  Foreign investors are cautious.

Also, look out if Mubarak starts bringing in help from peasant villages.  That was how Tianneman actually happened, the CCP used soldiers drawn from villages to crush the protest.  The tension between urban "elites" and the less well developed countryside is an issue world over, but especially so in nations where the villages are at almost bronze age level, while those living in the cities have internet access and clean water.

When trying to catch up on Egyptian history the other day, I read that Nasser actually went and connected all the villages to electricity. So those tensions might not be quite so present in Egypt, but I have no idea really.

Anyway, weren't Mu's people saying that the horse- and camel-riders in Liberation Square came all the way from Giza? Giza isn't that far away from downtown Cairo (half an hour's bus ride iirc) but it seemed like that kind of thing... Like this was supposed to give the impression that these were less urban Egyptians who have no problem beating some city kids if the big boss says so...

This just in: army arresting pro-Mu thugs:
http://www.tweetdeck.com/twitter/SherineT/33537926251945985

I heard an interesting theory: The Egyptian protests followed the Tunisian protests, which started because people found out how corrupt their government really was, because of... WIKILEAKS.

Which would mean that Assange is a promoter of (rather than a threat to) Democracy, just as he said.

It's pretty fucking amazing how much stuff has happened in the past few months which a year ago would have seemed very...unlikely.

Quote from: LMNO, PhD on February 04, 2011, 03:35:49 PM
I heard an interesting theory: The Egyptian protests followed the Tunisian protests, which started because people found out how corrupt their government really was, because of... WIKILEAKS.

Which would mean that Assange is a promoter of (rather than a threat to) Democracy, just as he said.

I am very curious as to how the american media will handle all of this.

If the media treats the events in Tunisia and Egypt as an embrace of democracy and freedom, it will be very hard to keep branding Assange as a terrorist.

Partially true, but has even more to do with rising food and fuel prices.  No-one gives a shit about corruption when times are good, but times are not good at all

And why are food and fuel rising?  Speculation.  What, you thought essential commodity speculation was banned?  Only for the likes of you and me, Goldman Sachs etc have notes from the Treasury saying its OK.

for real?? commodity speculators are the reason the food and fuel prices are going up over there? Jeeeesus... another wave of nausea just hit me.

:asplode:

Not just there.  Everywhere.

Remember when fuel prices in the US hit a massive high in 2008?  And everyone said "oh teh noes, oil is running out, we must do more offshore drilling?"  It was bullshit.  OPEC were flooding the market with oil like there was no tomorrow, and if there had been a shortage in the supply, you'd see waiting lines and rationing, not raised prices.  That was speculation.  And I have good reason to suspect this is the case again.

In the UK, most food prices have jumped ahead of inflation and the VAT rise (leading in, at least some cases, a 20% rise in the cost of some goods), as have fuel prices, despite an excellent year for crops and a better one for food manufacturers.  I wouldn't be surprised to find the same happening in the USA right now.

United Nations food agencies today warned that record-high prices for basic commodities are helping generate unrest around the world and contributed to the ousting of the Tunisian president last month.

'Not only is there a risk, but there have already been riots in some parts of the world because of rising prices,' Jacques Diouf, head of the UN's Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation, said.

'Some governments have found themselves in difficult situations and there is even one that has fallen,' he said - a reference to the toppling of Tunisia's veteran ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in a popular revolt on January 14.
[snip]
The World Food Programme, another UN agency, said: 'The events unfolding across the Middle East these past few weeks serve as a warning to us all about the important role that food security plays in calming public anger.'

'Across the region, we have seen civil protests driven by a complex array of different factors but all sharing one thing in common - growing anxiety about rising food prices and concern about access to food,' it said in a statement.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0204/food-business.html

Hungry people get pissed.

"When you are burying your second child due to starvation, and you already ate the family dog. You may consider revolution" - A Documentary on the Visigoths (Discovery Channel)

Members of leadership of Egypt's ruling party, including President Hosni Mubarak, submit resignations, state TV reports.

CNN had this as breaking news, evidently they didn't vet it and took it back down.

The politburo of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has resigned en masse, in an apparent response to anti-government protests.

Two key allies of President Hosni Mubarak, including his son Gamal, were stripped of their posts.

Both positions were taken by Hossam Badrawi, a reformer and prominent physician.

Protesters still occupy Cairo's Tahrir Square, but their numbers have fallen from Friday's huge rally.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12374010

So, the king is dead, long live the king? (http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2011/02/egypts-supreme-council-of-armed-forces-meeting-on-crisis/1)

QuoteUpdate at 11:07 a.m. ET: CNN's John King quotes a senior
U.S. official as saying that President Mubarak has agreed to yield power to his vice president Omar Suleiman.

The BBC quotes a senior member of Egypt's governing party as saying he "hopes" that Mubarak will transfer power to Suleiman. Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party tells the BBC that Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation within hours.

It remains unclear what role the military will have. The supreme council of the armed forces issued a statement saying they will stay in session indefinitely during the crisis.

I mean, are we taking it for granted that the #2 guy's gonna be any less shady and powerful than the #1 guy?

Hope not.

How often does a revolution actually work on the first try?

At best they can hope for somebody whose just as bad an asshole as Mubarak, but who knows he has to keep people happy because the army won't bail his ass out if people take to the streets again.

Omar Suleiman is a psychopath.

Not exaggerating here, according to Mamdouh Habib, an Australian Muslim who was renditioned to Egypt by the American gov, he not only orders the tortures, he takes part in the sessions...according to Habib, he ordered another prisoner to be killed just to intimidate him into talking.  According to ABC News, he once offered to chop the arm off of a suspected terrorist in order to please the CIA, who are on very good terms with him.  As are the Israeli government, who would very much like to see him rule Egypt.

@Requia...in my experience, the #2 guy is usually doing and saying all the shit the #1 guy can't get caught doing.

*shrug*

Also, what Cain said.

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 09:57:48 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:56:24 PM

Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on January 28, 2011, 09:53:42 PM

Quote from: Charley Brown on January 28, 2011, 09:52:36 PM

Quote from: Cain on January 28, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Holy shit, the Army might have actually been turned by the protestors:

http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/28/angry-friday-egyptian-unrest-continues-elbaradei-reported-under-house-arrest/#

QuoteUnconfirmed reports of fights between military and police according to Al Jazeera now. Military are moving toward Ministry of Defense and Radio and Television Building – no word yet of their plans as those locations are site of massive protests. Egyptians flags seen being waved by soldiers.

12:48 CNN reporting from the Information Ministry building that there are chants of "the Military and the People are one" and the military officers speaking calmly with them'

Uncomfirmed but I so hope it is true.

Wow. So the fuse to the powder keg that is the ME may have just been lit.

What?  Why would you say that?

If the Egyptians are successful then Yemen and Jordan will be encouraged. Who knows what else will happen in the next few days?

Yes, but we have no idea what changes - if any - will result from a successful coup in Egypt.

It's an incredibly unstable time there, but it's a little too early to be an alarmist, IMO.

I give up on individual countries, the shitstorm has begun.

In a growing number of countries across the Middle East and North Africa, CNN's reporters and iReporters are covering protests, most of them inspired by January's Egyptian protests that ended President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. Egyptians were inspired by a revolt in Tunisia that toppled its dictator. Here's the inside story by CNN.com's John Sutter about the faces of a social network-aided revolution. Have a story to tell from the scene? Click here to send an iReport.

The protests, which suggest a kind of domino effect, are chronicled country by country here. But no two nations' protests are driven by exactly the same reasons. Some have been violent, resulting in several deaths. Others have been mostly peaceful. How they unfold will matter to the stability of the regions, the war against al Qaeda and the world economy. Consider that Libya is an OPEC member.

This is a live blog that tells the stories of the people involved and what their actions may mean for the world.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/21/liv...ts/?hpt=T1

Very interesting blog that follows a time line.

...I'm sure it's already been said, but this shakeup in the Arab/Muslim despot world is similar to the fall of the Soviets and their satellites in the late 80's/early 90's and on.  Expect the resulting tumult to not end for some time to come.  I'm talking civil war and the like a la Kosovo.

When historians in future years grapple with the significance of the overthrow of the Mubarak regime in Egypt 10 days ago, coming as it did in the wake of the "Jasmine" January 14 Revolution in Tunisia, they may judge it not only as a seismic event, shattering and renewing the Arab political order, but also the key watershed moment in confronting the global al Qaeda threat.

The political, economic, and cultural stagnation that al Qaeda fed off for more than two decades has been replaced by the fastest moving change the region has ever witnessed, the most promising of Arab Springs.

The burgeoning democracy movement across the Middle East appears to have caught al Qaeda off guard and threatens to reduce the terrorist group to irrelevance.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/2...tml?hpt=C1

I hadn't even considered this.

Now.  Taking what we know about commodities futures speculators driving prices up such that it can incite violence in places of disparity and unrest...what kind of BACK ROOM DEAL or LACK THEREOF or even THREATS are said futures speculators MAKING when it comes to forging world history in real time?

THIS is what I've been thinking of since last week.

(http://i.imgur.com/jUn70.jpg)

The revolution isn't over yet.

This was Tahrir Square, yesterday.

What's you take on their upcoming election?

The former foreign minister is going to win.

He's kinda a shitbag, though not as big a one as, say, Murbarak.

Gosh, this seems awfully familiar:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20622233

QuoteThe Egyptian army has deployed tanks and armoured troop carriers outside the presidential palace in Cairo after clashes between supporters and opponents of President Mohammed Morsi left five dead and hundreds injured.

But, despite their presence, there are reports of a fresh outbreak of stone-throwing between the two sides.

Egypt is seeing growing unrest over a controversial draft constitution.

The government insists that a referendum will go ahead this month.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo says the clashes are possibly the most dangerous development in Egypt's growing political crisis.

Our correspondent says the violence, which opposition leaders accused Mr Morsi's Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement of organising, was ominously reminiscent of the tactics used by former President Hosni Mubarak during the revolution.

Essentially, the Muslims Brotherhood seem to be overseeing some kind of legislative coup, allowing Morsi to rule the country with an iron fist.  Much in the manner of Egypt's former ruler.  Morsi is high on his sucess in Gaza, in more ways than one, and so decided to seize the moment for a massive power grab.

And the constitutional referendum will probably end in his favor even if it's not rigged. The opposition has a lot of support in the middle- and upper-classes, but as long as Morsi doesn't order the army to massacre protesters and the MB manages to sustain the narrative that the opposition are godless and un-Islamic, he'll have a huge part of the population behind him.

In any country like Egypt, the middle and upper class secular liberals are always small in number.  The political-economy of Egypt is such that you have a super-wealthy upper class, a small middle class of professionals (usually doctors and teachers) and then large numbers of landless former peasantry/urban workers.

The Egyptian Brotherhood message plays well with the last, but is surprisingly prevalent among the middle class too.  The MB advocates an updated and modern Islam (not the same as progressive or liberal, of course) which frequently plays well with technocratic types and certain middle class/educated groups.  After all, the core of Al-Qaeda came from Egypt, and many of them were University educated scientists of one sort or another.

I think where the Army falls on the issue will decide the factor.  They seem to be protecting the regime now...or holding it hostage, but my usual Egyptian sources are fairly quiet on what they think is happening, so I have no evidence to say they are leaning one way or another.

Generally, I suspect most Egyptians are currently looking at each other and asking "Didn't we just do this shit?"

Any indication of outside interests Cain? Or is everyone busy looking at the chemical weapons in Syria?
This just in:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20629902

I swear there is a script that aspiring and ruling dictators have to read from now.