The Conspirapoker method.

[LMNO]

Granted, by the time I reach "I recalculate upwards based on the previous knowledge that car batteries can send electricity down that wire" I've stepped well away from the wire and out of the puddle.  Once assured I am in no danger, I can proceed with the rest of the process.

At some point, you reach a percentage where it's in your best interest to act.  But that doesn't have to stop the process.


Also, this can happen in an instant.  The brain can work pretty fast, sometimes.  Explaining your actions afterwards takes time, though.

[Cain]

My priors are:

Realists are always wrong.  Always. 

and

Conspiracy theorists are either wrong, dead or in on it.  Conspiring leaves little time for posting on the internet.

[LMNO]

Ok, I'm feeling particularly dumb.  What's the Realist stance, again?

[Kai]

Realists are always wrong.  Always. 

I'd just like to remind that reversed stupidity isn't intelligence. "The world's greatest fool may say the sun is shining, but that doesn't make it dark out."

[Cain]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realism_in_international_relations_theory

Everything you know about Realism is that it did not predict the end of the Cold War and cannot protect us against the Zombie menace.  And Mearsheimer (a Realist) wrote a hilariously wrong prediction about where Europe was going in 1989, which involved Germany acquiring nuclear weapons.

[Cain]

Realists are always wrong.  Always.  

I'd just like to remind that reversed stupidity isn't intelligence. "The world's greatest fool may say the sun is shining, but that doesn't make it dark out."

Yes.  But as a wise man once said "trolling Realists is fun."  Trolling Realists is a moral duty is one of my priors.

[LMNO]

A brief review make it sound like cynical pragmatism, doing what's good for the nation absent of ideology or morality.

While I can see using Realism in the short term can end up with results such as giving weapons and training to the Taliban which is later used against us, what are the other errors in Realistic thinking?

[Cain]

A brief review make it sound like cynical pragmatism, doing what's good for the nation absent of ideology or morality.

While I can see using Realism in the short term can end up with results such as giving weapons and training to the Taliban which is later used against us, what are the other errors in Realistic thinking?

Using the state as the basic unit of assumption.

Using an abstracted to the point of uselessness theoretical approach (Bi-polar systems may be more stable, but what does that tell us about the outcome of the Cold War?).

Assumption of unitary rationalism at the state level.

The Democratic Peace Theory does contradict it.

Most forms of realism attempt to explain all outcomes in a highly reductionist manner.  Ie; war happens because humans are bad.  This fails to explain why peace occurs, in this example.

Some components of their thinking are useful.  However, except in the case of the Iraq War, where Realists where mostly opposed, the Realist track record is dismal.  This could be because the actual founders of Realism were actively involved in the making of policy (Machiavelli, Thucydides, E.H. Carr) whereas most modern Realists (Jervis, Walt, Mearsheimer) are cushy academics with tenure and who make extra cash off inflating the threat of China.

[LMNO]

Ah.  I think I can see that, now. 

Ok, apparently one of my personal flawed biases is to adopt another's premise too quickly.  This is the second time today it's been pointed out to me that I've been standing on flawed foundations, usually provided by someone else.


Interestingly, it's been Cain showing me that, both times.

[Cain]

Realism is less insane than Neoconservatism and less self-righteous than liberal interventionism, which is why it tends to look so good in the current climate.

It is better, but only comparatively speaking.

Cain
still has a soft spot for Machiavelli, Carr, Metternich and Tallyrand

[Lies]

Thanks for the input guys, I'll put this into consideration and update you as I come up with stuff

[Cain]

OK, here is a case study for your methodology: Operation Gladio.

If you want, I can provide a single source dealing with this purported conspiracy (via PM), and let us see your system at work.

[Lies]

Actually, what I think would be useful right now are a list of conspiracies that *actually* been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt so I can find things that are common between them and such, for now.

My methodology is still a work in process so I can't exactly "assess" anything yet til its a bit more fleshed out....

[Cain]

Actually, what I think would be useful right now are a list of conspiracies that *actually* been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt so I can find things that are common between them and such, for now.

My methodology is still a work in process so I can't exactly "assess" anything yet til its a bit more fleshed out....

Well, depends on your required level of proven.  I would say that is proven, but I may be biased from years of research.

OK, here are a list of proven conspiracies, in my estimation:

Operation Gladio
MK-Ultra
The Iran-Contra Affair
Operation Paperclip
COINTELPRO
Many of the activities of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International
The Soviet Union set up a fake organization of defectors in order to find out who their real opponents were, lure them back into the Soviet Union and execute them (this was known as The Trust).
Many invasions, such as the Soviet attack on Finland and the German attack on Poland which ignited WWII, were false flag operations where the Soviet/German armies created fake attacks to justify their wars. Also Japan did the same with their invasion of Manchuria.
The Marxist-Leninist Party of the Netherlands was a false front created by Dutch intelligence to allow them to contact and work with Chinese intelligence against the USSR.
Propaganda Due.  Just...Propaganda Due.

[LMNO]

Propaganda Due.  Just...Propaganda Due.

This.