Based on a conversation from yesterday.

[Cardinal Pizza Deliverance.]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9689457/France-stripped-of-prized-AAA-credit-rating-by-Moodys.html

The rating agency said France's long-term economic growth had been hit by its inflexible labour market and low levels of innovation eroding its competitiveness and industrial base.

Moody's also flagged up the country's exposure to the continuing eurozone crisis.

It warned the "predictability" of France's resilence of further shocks in the eurozone was diminishing while the country's exposure to the highly indebted countries such as Spain and Greece was disproportionately high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9610717/French-business-erupts-in-fury-against-disastrous-Francois-Hollande.html

"The situation is very serious. Some business leaders are in a state of quasi-panic," said Laurence Parisot, head of employers' group MEDEF.

"The pace of bankruptcies has accelerated over the summer. We are seeing a general loss of confidence by investors. Large foreign investors are shunning France altogether. It's becoming really dramatic."

Here's a fun site for stuff all over the world :

http://www.euronews.com/tag/economic-crisis/

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Told ya.

[Cardinal Pizza Deliverance.]

[Cain]

Europe's problem is that the EU has passed a rule that no nation can have above a 3% deficit, so all spending has to be paid for by budget cuts in other areas.

This works out great for Germany, an export-orientated nation sitting on buckets of capital (and unstable loans to new EU states in the east), but fucks absolutely everyone else in the arse, since they had just finished bailing out their banking sectors...at German and American and British insistence.

Incidentally, the UK decided not to enter that pact...a surprisingly astute move from David Cameron.  Or else just a move which suggests the UK approach to the European crisis is "do as we say, not as we do".

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.  Housing benefits cuts will have fully kicked in by then, meaning a homeless Christmas for many families, and many others having been split up and made to live in other parts of the country.  Since these will overwhelmingly be people from London's impoverished and inner-city areas (ie; Newham), shit will hit the fucking fan.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.

Think it will take that long?

[Elder Iptuous]

I had heard about the credit rating downgrade, but those are really popular these days.
all the cool kids are getting them.

thanks for that euronews link Cardinal!

Cain.  when you say SHTF, do you mean protests?  riots?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I had heard about the credit rating downgrade, but those are really popular these days.
all the cool kids are getting them.

Heard about all this a week ago.  The cut took place today.  There's more to this avalanche of shit...What you see now is just the first few ice pebbles rattling down the hill.

[Cain]

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.

Think it will take that long?

Well, I'm basing my estimates on those given by a former rental industry professional, who is saying much the same thing.  The cuts take effect in February, but the way they are being staggered, the full impact doesn't hit until late November or so.

Cain.  when you say SHTF, do you mean protests?  riots?

All of the above.  This is essentially ethnic cleansing of London, to make it safe for nice middle class white people who work in the City or Silicon Roundabout and don't want dirty Tottenham types scaring them into working from their private compounds.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.

Think it will take that long?

Well, I'm basing my estimates on those given by a former rental industry professional, who is saying much the same thing.  The cuts take effect in February, but the way they are being staggered, the full impact doesn't hit until late November or so.

Yeah, but won't landlords be trying to turf people out early to avoid the specter of poor, bitter people KNOWING when they'll be leaving forever?

[Cain]

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.

Think it will take that long?

Well, I'm basing my estimates on those given by a former rental industry professional, who is saying much the same thing.  The cuts take effect in February, but the way they are being staggered, the full impact doesn't hit until late November or so.

Yeah, but won't landlords be trying to turf people out early to avoid the specter of poor, bitter people KNOWING when they'll be leaving forever?

Well, it's a little more complex than that.

Because this includes social housing, which is covered by a whole host of regulations regarding people leaving.  It'll still happen, it just takes longer.

There's also other things going on, like the benefits claim caps, the Universal Credit scheme and payment method, councils strongarming landlords into taking social housing tenants, the DWP Crisis Loans being rescinded and a bunch of other things.

As such, it's hard to tell when any individual tenant is going to be unable to pay, but overall, its looking like October to November will be the crunch point.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Fasten your seatbelts, everyone!

I'm just hoping shit doesn't go so wobbly here that I'll be forced out of school.

[Juana]

I should be able to graduate okay, but then there's the problem of finding a grown-up job. Oh man.

[Lenin McCarthy]

I hope the oil will keep Norway afloat for a while. But that's probably too much to hope for, since 70% of our exports go to the EU and 80% of our imports come from there.

[Pope Pixie Pickle]

Europe's problem is that the EU has passed a rule that no nation can have above a 3% deficit, so all spending has to be paid for by budget cuts in other areas.

This works out great for Germany, an export-orientated nation sitting on buckets of capital (and unstable loans to new EU states in the east), but fucks absolutely everyone else in the arse, since they had just finished bailing out their banking sectors...at German and American and British insistence.

Incidentally, the UK decided not to enter that pact...a surprisingly astute move from David Cameron.  Or else just a move which suggests the UK approach to the European crisis is "do as we say, not as we do".

Incidentally, bank on civil unrest in the UK in 12 months.  Housing benefits cuts will have fully kicked in by then, meaning a homeless Christmas for many families, and many others having been split up and made to live in other parts of the country.  Since these will overwhelmingly be people from London's impoverished and inner-city areas (ie; Newham), shit will hit the fucking fan.

I'd also expect a rise in suicides and mental health issues (it's already began), a rise in domestic violence (its gone up 17% since the beginning of the recession) and as cuts to women's services have been quite large, a rise in homicide by partner or ex-partner. Hell the cuts AS IS are fast sending me towards a shrink... Rioting is pretty much guaranteed, IMHO.