The obsession with control : when mathematical logic trips over its own feet

[Sean]

Hi everyone. Following what I shared in my presentation about our way of looking for order where there is none, I am asking a slightly practical existential question today. I know you have a critical mind around here, so I prefer asking real people rather than an ai or cold articles reciting theoretical probabilities without a soul.

[Sean]

Right now I take a deep interest in how we try to guess or anticipate uncertain events, whether for friendly bets, everyday choices, or analyzing the dynamics of a sports match. My partner claims that only cold statistics matter, but I remain convinced that the human factor and total chaos disrupt any calculation.

[Sean]

By the way, the other day I look for how specialists formalize the odds of an event and I happen to land on this page listing current trends, but it mostly makes me realize how much theory fails as soon as a grain of sand gets involved. A player misses a pass, the weather shifts, and the whole mathematical model collapses.
So, I would love for you to share your views and experiences on this. Do you trust predictive calculation systems to guess an outcome, or do you think everything is pure illusion and randomness always wins in the end ?

[Sean]

Thanks in advance for your insights and feedback, I look forward to reading your thoughts on the matter.

[chaotic neutral observer]

Following what I shared in my presentation about our way of looking for order where there is none

I must have missed it.

I know you have a critical mind around here,

Objection, assumes facts not in evidence.

A player misses a pass, the weather shifts, and the whole mathematical model collapses.

Use the wrong tool, get wrong (or meaningless) results.  Use the right tool, get right (ot at least useful) results...but recognize every tool has limitations.

Physics exists, and is very very good at predicting things within its purview, as long as you remember that measurements have error bars.  Also, predicting the behaviour of complex systems that have a high degree of sensitivity to initial conditions is a game for suckers.