half-baked political rant

[Ghost In The Machine]

if you wanted to pull off a sucessful insurrection in America, you'd need to join the military (as an officer) and spend a few years cultivating a division-sized force that was loyal to you. If you spent 8 or 10 years getting promoted and cultivating such a following until you had a large enough force to sucessfully take and hold a major city, you might have a shot.

insurrection by hillbillies and angry kids = likely to turn very bloody very quickly

1.  Great.  Then we could have another Argentina.  The WORST possible result would be the military staging a coup.

2.  Most revolutions get bloody.  Just saying.

[Cain]

if you wanted to pull off a sucessful insurrection in America, you'd need to join the military (as an officer) and spend a few years cultivating a division-sized force that was loyal to you. If you spent 8 or 10 years getting promoted and cultivating such a following until you had a large enough force to sucessfully take and hold a major city, you might have a shot.

insurrection by hillbillies and angry kids = likely to turn very bloody very quickly

And another good point.  Its also worth noting most of the Iraqi insurgents are in fact part of the old Iraqi Army, when Bremner sacked them because he is a class A idiot.  They have alot of training and loyalty, hence why they are able to cause so much damage.

[Ghost In The Machine]

if you wanted to pull off a sucessful insurrection in America, you'd need to join the military (as an officer) and spend a few years cultivating a division-sized force that was loyal to you. If you spent 8 or 10 years getting promoted and cultivating such a following until you had a large enough force to sucessfully take and hold a major city, you might have a shot.

insurrection by hillbillies and angry kids = likely to turn very bloody very quickly

And another good point.  Its also worth noting most of the Iraqi insurgents are in fact part of the old Iraqi Army, when Bremner sacked them because he is a class A idiot.  They have alot of training and loyalty, hence why they are able to cause so much damage.

What?  Just a few dead-enders?  

Yeah, that descibes Zarqawi, Al Sadr, and the Bagdhad militias???

Sorry, dude, it just isn't so.  Most of the militias are amateurs.

[Cain]

Yes, I mean fighting Iran and the various uprisings after the first Iraq war puts them on a par with the Libyans Zarqawi, al-Sadr an the others are the spokesmen. The real worry is the hundreds of thousands who were relatively well paid and fed under Saddam who now have no job but tons of military training and explosives.

And even if alot are amateurs, they are just the ones who are chosen to be the human bombs.

Edit: Either way, the point is the US are ina point of weaknes in Iraq. They are in a part of the world that is not sympathetic to them and is far away from their geographical bases of power. Plus, other countries are far less uppity about what you do in your own borders compared to others.  Including mass slaughter using wmds in the name of "national security".

[Ghost In The Machine]

Yes, I mean fighting Iran and the various uprisings after the first Iraq war puts them on a par with the Libyans Zarqawi, al-Sadr an the others are the spokesmen. The real worry is the hundreds of thousands who were relatively well paid and fed under Saddam who now have no job but tons of military training and explosives.

And even if alot are amateurs, they are just the ones who are chosen to be the human bombs.

Now, explain to me why Ba'athist troops would fight for Shi'ite leaders?  It just doesn't work that way.  Ba'athists and Shi'ites hate each other more than they hate us.  

Most of the former military rank & file is being employed in the new paramilitary police forces...where they are performing about as well as they did under the old regime.  This myth of the "dead-enders" was stale in late 2003.  Not even Rumsfeld tries to sell that yarn, anymore.

[Cain]

Now, explain to me why Ba'athist troops would fight for Shi'ite leaders?  It just doesn't work that way.  Ba'athists and Shi'ites hate each other more than they hate us.  

Most of the former military rank & file is being employed in the new paramilitary police forces...where they are performing about as well as they did under the old regime.  This myth of the "dead-enders" was stale in late 2003.  Not even Rumsfeld tries to sell that yarn, anymore.

Not al-Sadr, no.  They get their training in the Bekaa valley, I believe, although I may be wrong.

The paramilitary forces are mostly Kurdish and Shi'ite. Because most of the army was Sunni, and the Sunni's had most to lose and least to gain with a democratic Iraq.  They are outnumbered by the Kurdish and Shi'ite populations, there is no advantage in working with the Americans.

[Ghost In The Machine]

Not al-Sadr, no.  They get their training in the Bekaa valley, I believe, although I may be wrong.

Jebus.  No offense, but you are sounding JUST like Sean Hannity, right now.  There is precisely ZERO evidence that they are receiving their training, there, and several sound reasons that they aren't.

1.  There's no need to go that far.  Why should they?  They have plenty of local areas to train in.  The American forces control the ground they stand on, and not much else.

2.  Why would Syria stick their neck out like that?  They're risking too much as it is, by supplying weapons and ammunition.

[Cain]

Because last I heard al-Sadr was tight with the Iranians and that means they are tight with the Hezbollah, one of the best guerrilla armies in the world.  But like I said, I may be wrong.  I havent really had time to look at him much.

However, the insurgents are unmistakably Sunni, as were the army under Saddam.  

And my point, getting back to it, is that a militia in the States would not be able to fight against the US military and expect to win.  How many of those groups are infiltrated again by the FBI?  Exactly what can a machine gun do against a helicoptor gunship?  Using the War of Revolution is a false analogy, as weapons differences were much less back then, compared to nowadays.  Espescially with the French supplies.  Whereas now...Also, the US will go into full mobilisation if necessary. Total war.  Full resources of the state vs a bunch of men with guns. No chance.

[Ghost In The Machine]

Because last I heard al-Sadr was tight with the Iranians and that means they are tight with the Hezbollah, one of the best guerrilla armies in the world.  But like I said, I may be wrong.  I havent really had time to look at him much.

However, the insurgents are unmistakably Sunni, as were the army under Saddam.  

And my point, getting back to it, is that a militia in the States would not be able to fight against the US military and expect to win.  How many of those groups are infiltrated again by the FBI?  Exactly what can a machine gun do against a helicoptor gunship?  Using the War of Revolution is a false analogy, as weapons differences were much less back then, compared to nowadays.  Espescially with the French supplies.  Whereas now...Also, the US will go into full mobilisation if necessary. Total war.  Full resources of the state vs a bunch of men with guns. No chance.

1.  Al Sadr is tight with whomever will arm him.

2.  Incorrect.  Zarqawi is one of the big four, and he's as Sunni as you are.  In addition, most of the militias in Bagdhad are Shi'ite.  

3.  Weapons differences are meaningless in a guerilla war.  What matters is intel, and the American government couldn't even stop McViegh.  Hell, they only caught the Unabomber because his brother turned him in.

[Cain]

Are you certain about Zaqawi?  All I seem to get suggest he is "Sunni", like most of Al-Qaeda (in that if he ever got around to reading the Qu'ran he's be Sunni).  He has even launched attacks against several Shi'ite clerics in Iraq.  It could be due to power politics, but it doesn't seem so.

Yes, intel is very important. However, McVeigh was low level and so slipped under the radar.  To be able to coordinate large attacks requires a large amount of coordination and cooperation, which leads to infiltration. Of course, they could always try 4G theory of warfare, like the Iraqis, but I doubt they would, for the simple reason thats its been around a while and they haven't yet.

[Ghost In The Machine]

Are you certain about Zaqawi?  All I seem to get suggest he is "Sunni", like most of Al-Qaeda (in that if he ever got around to reading the Qu'ran he's be Sunni).  He has even launched attacks against several Shi'ite clerics in Iraq.  It could be due to power politics, but it doesn't seem so.

Yes, intel is very important. However, McVeigh was low level and so slipped under the radar.  To be able to coordinate large attacks requires a large amount of coordination and cooperation, which leads to infiltration. Of course, they could always try 4G theory of warfare, like the Iraqis, but I doubt they would, for the simple reason thats its been around a while and they haven't yet.

Zarqawi = Al Qaeda = Wahibbi = Shi'ite.

Who needs large attacks?  America had a fucking nervous breakdown after McViegh, and went totally off the hook after 911...and those were small potatos.  Both attacks were all flash, no fury.

You could do a lot more, with a hell of a lot less, and not just against civilian targets.

The only reason there haven't been signifigant terrorist actions in America since 911 is because nobody is trying, not because we're good at stopping them.

[Cain]

Bob damn you! This is a cunning plan to stop me revising, isnt it? I just realised I spent the last half hour doing this instead of sentential logic, damn you!

[Ghost In The Machine]

Bob damn you! This is a cunning plan to stop me revising, isnt it? I just realised I spent the last half hour doing this instead of sentential logic, damn you!

You caught me.

Fact is, it's not an "us vs them" scenario.  There is no single insurgent organization.

It's actually more like us vs them vs them vs them vs them vs them, etc.

An easier analogy for Iraq:

Take twenty rival American streetgangs, and starve them for a week.  Toss a few dozen cops into the mix, give everyone a steak knife...

...and then turn out the lights.

[Cain]

Bob damn you! This is a cunning plan to stop me revising, isnt it? I just realised I spent the last half hour doing this instead of sentential logic, damn you!

You caught me.

Fact is, it's not an "us vs them" scenario.  There is no single insurgent organization.

It's actually more like us vs them vs them vs them vs them vs them, etc.

An easier analogy for Iraq:

Take twenty rival American streetgangs, and starve them for a week.  Toss a few dozen cops into the mix, give everyone a steak knife...

...and then turn out the lights.

True, it is less organized.  I meant the individual gruops were more organized in themselves, if you see what I mean...Kinda like the stuff I talked about in the Open Source Chaos stuff.

I knew there was some vile plot to make me fail my exams!

[Ghost In The Machine]

Bob damn you! This is a cunning plan to stop me revising, isnt it? I just realised I spent the last half hour doing this instead of sentential logic, damn you!

You caught me.

Fact is, it's not an "us vs them" scenario.  There is no single insurgent organization.

It's actually more like us vs them vs them vs them vs them vs them, etc.

An easier analogy for Iraq:

Take twenty rival American streetgangs, and starve them for a week.  Toss a few dozen cops into the mix, give everyone a steak knife...

...and then turn out the lights.

True, it is less organized.  I meant the individual gruops were more organized in themselves, if you see what I mean...Kinda like the stuff I talked about in the Open Source Chaos stuff.

I knew there was some vile plot to make me fail my exams!

1.  Only if each of the cells hate and loathe ALL of the other cells.

2.  Nothing personal.  The crew is short handed, and that poop-auger isn't going to fix itself.  Welcome aboard.