Take note

[Cain]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-bombing19-2009oct19,0,387630.story?track=rss

In a brazen attack on Iran's military elite, a suicide bomber on Sunday killed six Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and 36 others at a gathering of tribal leaders in a southeastern province near the Pakistani border known for drug running and religious extremism, according to the official Iranian news agency.

The assault was carried out by a lone man who reportedly disguised himself in tribal dress and detonated an explosives belt at a gymnasium in the city of Pisheen in Sistan-Baluchistan, a harsh land beset by heroin smuggling and ethnic animosities.

At least 28 people were wounded, and images of carnage were broadcast across a stunned nation.

State media said the Sunni Muslim militant group Jundallah, or Soldiers of God, which operates along the Iranian-Pakistani border, claimed responsibility for the attack. The organization, part of a regional Sunni insurgency in Shiite-dominated Iran, has for years killed and kidnapped Iranian soldiers and police officers.

This would be hard to pull off in Iraq, where most remaining insurgents are seasoned veterans and the security services are infiltrated by several dozen different extremist outfits.  In Iran, it is nothing short of amazing.

Also, remember, Jundullah, totally NOT a U.S.-backed terrorist organization via links with the Pakistani ISI.  Not at all.

http://www.hindu.com/2006/08/12/stories/2006081205941200.htm
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/04/abc_news_exclus.html

Ahem.

No doubt the loss of several senior commanders and the need to respond to such an attack will draw Iranian troops away from both major population centres and the western border with Iraq, and cause no end of confusion as they seek command replacements and attempt to more effectively police the Sistan-Baluchestan border region. 

There has also been a lot of suspicious trading on Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures lately, namely that someone is betting on $100 prices by November.

Does someone know something?  No clue at all, but its fun to speculate.

[The Johnny]

...a brazen attack... in a southeastern province near the Pakistani border known for drug running and religious extremism...

They had it coming.

[Cain]

No good guys here.  Pakistan's ISI = religious extremists, run drugs.  Iranian Revolutionary Guard = religious extremists, run drugs (via Hezbollah).  Jundullah = religious extremists, run drugs and the CIA....well, not so much religious extremists, although they have no problems consorting with them, and of course they run drugs.

Its almost like there is a pattern emerging.

Anyway, the point is not to feel sorry for the Iranian commanders who got iced, or to cheer on Jundullah (who have repeatedly targeted civilians in the past), but to point out this seems to be part of a larger trend of events circling around Iran since they declared their intent to exclude the US dollar from its reserves and revenues.

Iran are blaming Pakistan, I believe, but I don't think that the ISI has the cojones to take on Iran alone.  Indeed, in the not so distant past, the two have cooperated on issues of mutual interest, such as sending Mujahideen to Azerbaijan and Chechnya.

[Kai]

So, basically this whole thing is just a set up so the US can invade Iran.

I fucking hate this country.

[Cain]

Maybe, but maybe not.  Its not like terrorists are renowned for taking orders from their state-sponsors, though the intel on this was pretty good (but then again, the region is one they know very well, so I would expect them to have good intel).  Anyway, the point is, drawing troops away from the major population centres means there are less troops available to quell uprisings.  The election is still contested, and high ranking clerics are still disputing the results (ie saying it was fixed).  Jundullah might be thinking strategically, hoping to draw Iran into military overstretch and then take advantage when the chaos unfolds.

It also puts a buttload of troops near the Afghan border, in an area which, IIRC, was recently infiltrated by Taliban soldiers.  But I need to check on that.  Either way, its a stablizing influence for that country.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

So, basically this whole thing is just a set up so the US can invade Iran.

I fucking hate this country.

Not going to happen.