Can Palin win the nomination in 2012

[Thurnez Isa]

Politics daily thinks so
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/11/16/walter/

and i actually agree with them on this... of course maybe saner people in the GOP might prevail.... maybe...

The secret of Palin's presidential potential is the Republican Party's affection for winner-take-all primaries. According to my friend Elaine Kamarck's invaluable new book, Primary Politics, 43 percent of the 2008 Republican delegates were selected in primaries where the winner corralled all the delegates by winning a state or congressional district. As a result of the Republicans' to-the-victor-go-the-spoils method of picking convention delegates, Mike Huckabee finished second in 16 states and won a paltry 74 delegates for his trouble.

If Palin launches a 2012 race – and survives the South Carolina primary with her aura intact – she could theoretically sweep the winner-take-all states without ever winning a majority anywhere. The Republican establishment (the congressional leadership, the governors, the major donors and national consultants) could all agree that Palin would be an electoral disaster against Obama in November and still be powerless to halt her juggernaut.

[the last yatto]

depends on how her feud with Levi goes...

and if she keeps avoiding interviews 

[Kai]

No, she'll run under the Tea Party.

[Pariah]

I hope so

[East Coast Hustle]

I don't see it. No way she attracts the support of the important players. And no way the Teabaggers get their shit together and organize and fundraise quickly enough to be a serious 3rd party in 2012.

Smart money, right now, is on Romney. And I'm not sure I'd betagainst him in a general election with Obama, though I think Smiler probably squeaks it out as things stand right now. Who knows what kind of weird shit could happen in the next 2 years.

[Requia ☣]

I think it depends on how well like the Smiler still is.  The heavy hitters may not bother with the primary (or only put in a token effort) if they don't have a chance of winning.

Aside from that I'd need to look up the primary rules in various states, Palib might win the states where only registered party members vote in that parties primary, I doubt she'd win any where the independents get a say.

[Requia ☣]

Romney will never pull it off, he's a Mormon and the Movement won't tolerate that.

[Cain]

The Teabaggers are going to make it look like there is a conservative voting split in the 2016 elections, prompting those of the left who are pissed off with Obama's lack of spine to register their anger through voting for third parties (since the presumption would be that his successor's lead is comfortable).  Then the Tea Partiers will mysteriously collapse in September or October, with their nominal leader throwing their support behind the Republican candidate and using their organizational skills to bring the votes in (remember, FreedomWorks is funding the Tea Partiers at the moment, and they specialize in creating fake grassroot campaigns).  Ta da, the leftards get ratfucked, the Movement rightfully retakes power from its incompetent usurpers, and the whole 2000-2006 party starts all over again.

I don't think Romney is the Annointed One, though.  He lost out to McCain of all people, and I've always gotten the impression that the GOP does not take a shine to losers (in a strictly electoral sense).  Then again, they're not exactly brimming with great potential candidates for the position, either...

[Cain]

Romney will never pull it off, he's a Mormon and the Movement won't tolerate that.

Wanna bet?  Mormon, Catholic and fundamentalist Protestant groups and organizations all work together very tightly at the national and international level.  Conservative Christians of all stripes perfer to work with each other and fight it out over the spoils later, instead of letting the hated secularists, atheists and liberals take charge.  Apparently demographic concerns are very central to the Movement of late, lots of kids getting bored with the Jebus routine, and the Mormons and Catholics tend to place a focus on big families...

[Thurnez Isa]

More I think about it, and read her facebook I don't think she'll even run in 2012, just pretend to
Im beginning to think since her resignation, including the resignation is all about a cash grab
She's already paying out huge sums due to all her corruption scandals
its cash in now time.
Write a book, due the speaking tour, get all those idiot teabaggers to "donate" to the cause of your suppose election and make out like bandits.
The impression I get from her facebook and reading the little bit of the book I've gotten to is she is, and always have been, about the money

[the last yatto]

cashing in makes sense
she would be like a teabagging vampire

[Cramulus]

wouldn't you just love to see a debate between Hillary and Palin? Hillary Clinton has row upon row of shark teeth which trump Biden's stinky gums.

[Cain]

Looks like Obama might get gutted like a fish in the mid-terms:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/1/821089/-Weekly-Tracking-Poll:-The-Holiday-Spirit,-Part-III

the highest percentage of Democrats to date (45%) indicated this week that they are either unlikely to vote, or certain not to vote.

As things continue to not improve, politics can only get more volatile...