Question for Cain...and other more IR savvy folk.

[Suu]

What are the odds of the US balkanizing in our lifetime?

[Suu]

And for the record, I'm taking RI, and making it feudal. Seriously, that fucking castle on Cranston Street? MINE MOTHERFUCKERS.

[BabylonHoruv]

in an official capacity, I'd say pretty unlikely.  However a weakening of central authority and increased autononomy on the local level seems pretty likely.

[Lies]

As a gambling man, I'd be willing to bet on it happening in the next 50 years if certain demographics continue to exist and proliferate as they are now.

[Suu]

I know Hawaii is gone within the next 10. If we gain PR in the time...I dunno, but outlook not-so-good, they're a bunch of deadbeats who don't want to pay taxes.

[East Coast Hustle]

I know Hawaii is gone within the next 10. If we gain PR in the time...I dunno, but outlook not-so-good, they're a bunch of deadbeats who don't want to pay taxes.

[geekdad]

I see it as likely, betting with Lysergic.

[Suu]

I know Hawaii is gone within the next 10. If we gain PR in the time...I dunno, but outlook not-so-good, they're a bunch of deadbeats who don't want to pay taxes.

I was married to a Puerto Rican, his father was off-the-island Boricua. He told me that himself. Islanders complain that we don't give them enough support, but when the question comes up on statehood, they freak out on the idea of paying federal taxes (they do pay territorial.)

[Nephew Twiddleton]

How do you figure Hawaii is gone in the next ten years? I imagine that they would be fairly reliant on outside imports and membership in the US is necessary for them at this point.

I don't see a fragmenting of the US, but a continuing debate of the idea. Most Americans adhere to the idea of being American and only talk secession and fragmenting when they are dissatisfied with the current administration or when exasperated with partisan politics.

What I predict is more talk about devolution with the action in further centralizing power in the federal government.

[Suu]

There is a HUGE secessionist movement on the islands, mostly with the native population. But on the bottomline, it's more about how much it costs them to be citizens (Not so much as taxes as importing from the mainland) and how little the people truly have in common with most Americans. Hawai'ians have more in common with the rest of the Pacific than the Walmart Nation, so they want out.

[AFK]

I don't see it happening.  I could see it if, say, there were significant chunks of U.S. territory inhabited primarily by American Muslims.  Maybe, Maybe, it would happen if areas with growing Hispanic populations also had fleeting white populations.  But I dunno, as fucked up as this country is, I just don't see it getting to THAT point. 

[Nephew Twiddleton]

There is a HUGE secessionist movement on the islands, mostly with the native population. But on the bottomline, it's more about how much it costs them to be citizens (Not so much as taxes as importing from the mainland) and how little the people truly have in common with most Americans. Hawai'ians have more in common with the rest of the Pacific than the Walmart Nation, so they want out.

True, I know about their secessionist movement, but I'm not convinced it's all that powerful or that Hawaiians are willing enough to removing themselves from the US. I get the sense that most modern secessionist movements are more of a half-hearted means of asserting regional identity and building political cred. I like the New England secessionist movement because I don't have a lot in common with most Americans. Most Americans don't have much in common with most Americans, but they're still ok with being American.

It might be interesting, however, to add a 3rd, middle layer of American government, creating regional dominions. Messy as hell, but an interesting thought experiment.

[Suu]

There is a HUGE secessionist movement on the islands, mostly with the native population. But on the bottomline, it's more about how much it costs them to be citizens (Not so much as taxes as importing from the mainland) and how little the people truly have in common with most Americans. Hawai'ians have more in common with the rest of the Pacific than the Walmart Nation, so they want out.

True, I know about their secessionist movement, but I'm not convinced it's all that powerful or that Hawaiians are willing enough to removing themselves from the US. I get the sense that most modern secessionist movements are more of a half-hearted means of asserting regional identity and building political cred. I like the New England secessionist movement because I don't have a lot in common with most Americans. Most Americans don't have much in common with most Americans, but they're still ok with being American.

It might be interesting, however, to add a 3rd, middle layer of American government, creating regional dominions. Messy as hell, but an interesting thought experiment.

You mean...more like feudalism?!

King = President
Regionals = Dukes
Governors = Counts
Congressmen = Viscounts
Everyone else = Serfs



OMG, I've been inspired to start a Feudalism Party.

[Cain]

I don't see it being likely.  A former FSB analyst predicted something similar not that long ago and got laughed at.  A lot.

The trend in the USA for the past 60 odd years at least has been centralization of power.  Balkanization would likely only happen in the case of severe economic collapse or cataclysmic destruction, either natural or man-made based on current trends.

Secessionist movements within US territory are typically weak, both politically and militarily.  All major parties are invested in the territorial sovereignty of the United States as it now stands.  No foreign powers with any cultural pull or major military expertise are agitating for secession or providing support to secessionists.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

It would be more like a multilayered Federalism. Maybe devolve some national powers down to a dominion level (I am using the word dominion because of the phrasing Dominion of New England when we were still part of the Empire). Maybe have the national government look more confederated, but still with a strong executive branch. Or conversely where there was a place where states rights being called into question, have dominion level government mediate? I dunno, I'm just bouncing around ideas.

A Feudal Party would be a good mindfuck. We already have a political aristocracy, could use that as a basis for argument.