What do you REALLY believe?

[Cain]

its not so much directed at you rat...  more BH
but you could answer to

what your magic can do?
to what degree of accuracy?
and how it can actually effect the physical world?

now its just an internal world we get into something much different... then just describe the effect

Some Wiccans once bound me to "do harm to none".

That didn't really work out too well for them.

[Thurnez Isa]

ok it comes to my attention that I misquoted something
that i wanted proof in objectiveness or something like that

that is not what I meant - sorry

I want to know what you claim you could do
to what degree of accuracy
and what, if any, effect it can have in a testable environment

that is the proof I want

To what degree of accuracy, magic doesn't make things happen, it effects probability.  I am also not pretending to be an incredibly powerful mage, just a reasonable one.  It depends on the likelihood that whatever I am trying to make happen will happen without magic, so the level of accuracy is pretty subjective, but I'd say I have a level of accuracy of about 25% more or less.

What I can do, effect the likelihood of something happening.  That applies to anything, but it is most effective in things that are 2/3 to 3/4 likely to happen already, So shooting lightning bolts is generally a waste of time and energy, even if it were possible for someone to do so. 

What effect it can have in a testable environment.  Give me my tarot cards (the tools I use for prediction the most often) then have me make guesses about something going on on the other side of a wall.

Don't let me use them and have me make guesses.

So long as my guesses are weighted between 2/3 and 3/4 right (for instance, I guess if a roll on a die is on the high side (3-6) or the low side (1-4) I'll get a statistically significant number more right with my cards than without them. 

If you want to run this experiment I welcome it.  The internet makes a pretty nice wall.

if two people are willing to act as controls I will do this experiment

[LMNO]

So, you're saying that you can guess 25% better than random chance?


I'll tell you what I'll do, if you want to do this.  I will flip a coin 100 times, and PM my results to both Rat and Cain.

You will tell me the sequence of heads and tails.  Normal probability says you have a 50% chance of being right for each flip.

If we factor in your claims, you should have 75% accuracy.  That is, you will correctly predict 75 flips out of 100.

You game?

[Bebek Sincap Ratatosk]

its not so much directed at you rat...  more BH
but you could answer to

what your magic can do?
to what degree of accuracy?
and how it can actually effect the physical world?

now its just an internal world we get into something much different... then just describe the effect

Well, its sort of like surfing. The ocean is going in one direction. The waves head to the shore and will crash there. If you're smart and know all the right tricks, you might be able to ride that wave to the shore, rather than be tumbled about... if you're reall good you might cut across the waves and take a much longer ride to the shore.

Magic, to me,  is kinda like that. If the Universe is heading for X, you probably aren't gonna change it, but you might be able to jockey for position a bit better.

I generally consider magic from a psychological perspective. Although some experiences I've had I can't explain in that model and have to go fish.

Let me think of some examples:

1. Evocation - Creating an entity to do your bidding.

In experimenting with Chaos Magic, I had to try evocation. Evoking an servitor....

My house was in the middle of the woods, there was a long gravel driveway which wound through the woods to our place. The up-side of this was that my darling and I could run around the house naked, smoking pot and not worry about it. The downside was that we never knew if someone was coming to our house, until they pulled into the parking space right in from of the giant bay window in the living room.

I found a squirrel skull in the yard and decided a squirrel servitor would be great for Ratatosk. So I did the rituals and created a squirrel servitor that was supposed to let me know whenever someone was coming down the drive.

From then on, I would generally hear a loud chittering noise and have time to hide the bong and put on pants before someone pulled into the parking area. Since then I've tried different models to explain it and I have a few ideas... but the methods I used were the same methods other people used and the outcome was similar to their outcome. Correlation I can see, causation I'm still unsure of.

-------

Invocation - Calling up some sort of entity

I tried invocation in Thelemic ritual and invoked Therion. The experience I've shared here in the past and I have several possible causes as to the experience... However, the more important thing, was that I followed the methods other people followed and had similar results. Correlation yes, Causation, I dunno.

-------

Sigil Magic - Using Sigils to modify perception and future outcomes

This one, more than the others felt like surfing the cosmic waves (to reference my earlier metaphor).

I had spent a year reading Bob Wilson, Stang, Antero Ali, Carroll, Hine, Farber, Leary, Sirius, etc etc I just couldn't get enough after having broken free of the JW's. At some point I decided that somehow I would interact with these people. So I used sigil magic as laid out in Liber Null and Psychonaut. The sigil was some variation on "I will meet/work with these authors that impress me" or something (I don't remember the exact phrase). I did the rituals and within about six months, I had found Maybe Logic Academy, was taking the first ever virtual class that Pete Carroll taught, ended up rescuing the Admin after a hacker got hold of them and then became the webmaster for the school. I got to take classes from every one of the people I was interested in, I got to hang out with them outside of class and ... well... nothing says magic as much as picking up your phone and hearing "Hail Eris, this is Bob Wilson", "Hi Clyde, Pete Carroll here", or "Honey Antero Ali called while you were out, here's his number...".

At this point, the academy provides me with a nice little bump in income, an awesome resource for me (I get to see/read all the classes) and I've got to help design and shape RAW legacy on the web.

Would all of that happened if I hadn't done the sigil magic? I dunno, maybe I would have lucked out and the waves of the universe would have tossed me just right... personally I don't know, but again we have correlation with expectations.

[Thurnez Isa]

Rat I assure you I have NO idea what your talking about

sounds more like ritualistic spiritualism to me... almost like native American shamanism (its a poor example I know)

As I was saying to Cram in IRC I could only take magic for its dictionary term, its the only understanding of it I know... and that doesn`t seem to qualify

[BabylonHoruv]

So, you're saying that you can guess 25% better than random chance?


I'll tell you what I'll do, if you want to do this.  I will flip a coin 100 times, and PM my results to both Rat and Cain.

You will tell me the sequence of heads and tails.  Normal probability says you have a 50% chance of being right for each flip.

If we factor in your claims, you should have 75% accuracy.  That is, you will correctly predict 75 flips out of 100.

You game?

when working at 50% my accuracy is worse.  I do think I could pull off a statistically significant level of correct answers, but I doubt it would be a full 25 out of 100.  

[LMNO]

So, 100 rolls of the dice would work better?

Or maybe, I'll cut the tarot deck 100 times?



You choose the action.


Also, I'll PM Nigel and 000 my expectations of this experiment, so we can note my assumptions after we're done.

[BabylonHoruv]

Rat I assure you I have NO idea what your talking about

sounds more like ritualistic spiritualism to me... almost like native American shamanism (its a poor example I know)

As I was saying to Cram in IRC I could only take magic for its dictionary term, its the only understanding of it I know... and that doesn`t seem to qualify

Rat gave a pretty good description of examples of magic working in his life.  I assume from how frustrated you got about my (and others) misunderstandings about science that you can see just how frustrating your approach to Magic is to myself and others who use it as a useful tool.  And yes, Ritualistic Spiritualism is not a bad descriptive phrase.  Magic is just quicker and easier to say.

Also, that is the reason for the silly spelling that you and some others were making fun of, to distinguish Magic, as described by Rat in his examples from his life, from Magic, as in what David Copperfield does, or Magic, as in throwing burning hands spells.

[Thurnez Isa]

I wasn't talking to you

[BabylonHoruv]

So, 100 rolls of the dice would work better?

Or maybe, I'll cut the tarot deck 100 times?



You choose the action.


Also, I'll PM Nigel and 000 my expectations of this experiment, so we can note my assumptions after we're done.

Dice or a deck would be better yes.  Dice are easy, and there are online ones that will let you generate a whole bunch at once so that's probably a good approach.  Also I use dice a lot in my day to day life (roleplaying) so I think I can work fairly well with them.  If we go with high low guessing (I guess if it is 3 or above or 3 or below) there's a 2/3 weight that I am going to be right randomly, that's in the range that magic is most effective, so that is the range I would prefer.  Then we can measure and see how far I am from 66% statistically.

[LMNO]

3 or above or 3 or below?

I think you mean "1-3 or 4-6".  "1-3 or 3-6" skews the percentages, as you're predicting 3 either way.


Plus, that's still 50%

[Thurnez Isa]

I think he means 1-4 and 3-6
which gives him range in the middle and prevents a statistical problem

but that could be weighed out with two control subjects

[BabylonHoruv]

3 or above or 3 or below?

I think you mean "1-3 or 4-6".  "1-3 or 3-6" skews the percentages, as you're predicting 3 either way.


Plus, that's still 50%

actually I meant 4 or below or 3 and above.  And yes, it does skew the percentages, that is the point.

in other words 1-4 or 3-6

[Chairman Risus]

From then on, I would generally hear a loud chittering noise and have time to hide the bong and put on pants before someone pulled into the parking area. Since then I've tried different models to explain it and I have a few ideas... but the methods I used were the same methods other people used and the outcome was similar to their outcome. Correlation I can see, causation I'm still unsure of.

What do you mean by this? My dogs bark every time someone pulls into the driveway, but I'm pretty sure they aren't magic.

[LMNO]

Other than the 23, why is 2/3 "where magic is most effective"?