Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare

[LMNO]

I should probably make myself some kind of chart, it's getting increasingly difficult for me to keep a track of actors, interests and who's a proxy for who.

Whoa.

[Cain]

The graphic does, it is worth noting, come from ThinkProgress, the liberal blog backed by the pro-Obama Center for American Progress.  As such, it does hew rather closely to the "official line" on the Middle East.

You'll note, for example, that the graph gives some credence to the claim that the Syrian government is indirectly supporting ISIS (it is claimed this is to split the insurgency by proponents of the claim):

The Syrian National Coalition believes that ISIS is closely linked to the terrorist regime and serves the interests of the clique of President Bashar Al-Assad.... The murder of Syrians by this group leaves no doubt about the intentions behind their creation, their objectives, and the agendas they service, which is confirmed by the nature of their terrorist actions that are hostile to the Syrian revolution.

However, as Aymenn Al-Tamimi pointed out:

There is no doubt that the jihadi presence in Syria- whether in the form of ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, or the multiple muhajireen-led battalions- is useful to the Assad's narrative on the rebellion as a foreign-backed "takfiri/Wahhabi" conspiracy against Syria.

[...]

The mere existence of such rhetoric and the IF's prominence- regardless of what happens on the ground- are enough to provide considerable credence to the regime's characterization of the opposition as sectarian. Further, the sectarian rhetoric of the IF has translated to results on the ground...

[...]

However, it must be emphasized that no conclusive evidence exists illustrating an active ISIS-regime collaboration; and for Jabhat al-Nusra, it is even more implausible. Much of the lines of argument applied to ISIS can also be applied to other groups outside the jihadi fold: most notably, the YPG and some of the IF.

You'll also note there is no mention of the rich, "Gulf state-based" backers of ISIS.  Sure, they may not be "officially" government, but government in many of those states is a thin veneer for outright oligarchical rule.

[Junkenstein]

Shoving this here, but if anyone wants to split or make an "It's Iraq again" thread, feel free. I suspect there will be plenty over the next few days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27897648

slamist-led militants have attacked Iraq's biggest oil refinery with mortars and machine guns, reportedly attacking from two directions.

Smoke billowed from a spare parts warehouse on the site at Baiji, 210km (130 miles) north of Baghdad, security and refinery sources told Reuters.

Government forces have made new air strikes on militants advancing towards the capital.

Fighting is also reported in the western city of Ramadi.

Using unusually strong language, Mr Maliki accused Saudi Arabia - which is largely Sunni - of backing ISIS.

[Cain]

Nah, we'll keep it in here.  Iraq, Syria...possibly Lebanon and Jordan soon as well.  All part of the same processes and causes.

In other news, ISIS has seized a Saddam-era chemical weapons facility.  The US says it's not operational...but we'll see soon enough,

[Cain]

Oh, and the Saudi government would like you to know that it has never supported terrorism anywhere against anyone EVER and the only people who could disagree are those scumbag Shiite politicians who deserve to die in a fire:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia wishes to see the defeat and destruction of all Al-Qaeda networks and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham (ISIS) operating in Iraq. Saudi Arabia does not provide either moral or financial support to ISIS or any terrorist networks. Any suggestion to the contrary, is a malicious falsehood. Despite the false allegations of the Iraqi Ministerial Cabinet, whose exclusionary policies have fomented this current crisis, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia supports the preservation of Iraq's sovereignty, its unity and territorial integrity. We wish to see the protection of all civilians and the alleviation of their current suffering. We oppose all foreign intervention and interference in the internal affairs of Iraq. Instead, we urge all the people of Iraq, whatever their religious denominations, to unite to overcome the current threats and challenges facing the country."

[Cain]

Incidentally, Saudi Arabia is pumping out disinformation that ISIS are only a minor part of the insurgency and that this is, in fact, a fully blown Sunni uprising against Maliki.

There are elements of truth to this, insofar as Sunni antipathy towards Maliki is definitely helping ISIS, and that there are non-ISIS groups who have significantly taken part in operations (ex-Baathist groups, for example).  But ISIS make up the majority of the insurgents on the ground, according to the available data at the moment. 

So either the Saudis aren't sharing, or they're trying to blow smoke up our arses.  I strongly suspect the latter.

[Junkenstein]

This seems to be escalating very quickly indeed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27936652

[UB]

Nah, we'll keep it in here.  Iraq, Syria...possibly Lebanon and Jordan soon as well.  All part of the same processes and causes.

In other news, ISIS has seized a Saddam-era chemical weapons facility.  The US says it's not operational...but we'll see soon enough,

One never knows. *dunno* They may create an industrial power producing facility that represents NO cutting edge technology that forces to surface the jealousy of other nations as to provoke the global ranting of breaking peace sanctions. Let's hope its something phenomenal.  http://www.globalepiphany.com/ 

[Cain]

This seems to be escalating very quickly indeed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27936652

This may have already reached a point of no return.  At the very least, Iraqi Kurdistan is never going to hand back Kirkuk.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Well, it's nice to see  that the 20th century is still alive and well.

[Cain]

Interestingly enough, ISIS say their aim is to undo Sykes-Picot, probably the quintessential 20th century approach to foreign policy.

And if Jordan is in their sights, as reports suggest it might be, then this is getting into old school empire-building territory.  An actual caliphate, controlling even the meagre Northern Iraqi and Raqqa oil supplies...it doesn't bear thinking about.  At least Saudi Arabia is constrained by the need to put its excess cash into London banks and property markets, but I somehow think a house in Kensington is not on the ISIS wishlist.

[UB]

"Here, allow me to smack your cheeks with these handed down, decrepit socks from decades ago."

Maybe ISIS would be doing everyone involved more than a mere favour. 

[Junkenstein]

Interestingly enough, ISIS say their aim is to undo Sykes-Picot, probably the quintessential 20th century approach to foreign policy.

And if Jordan is in their sights, as reports suggest it might be, then this is getting into old school empire-building territory.  An actual caliphate, controlling even the meagre Northern Iraqi and Raqqa oil supplies...it doesn't bear thinking about.  At least Saudi Arabia is constrained by the need to put its excess cash into London banks and property markets, but I somehow think a house in Kensington is not on the ISIS wishlist.

If you ever care to go into more detail on that, I'd be interested. The relative (un)involment of France depending on the situation seems to show that western powers still hold to Sykes-Picot largely, with slight shifts over the years but france=syria seems to still be alive and well and Russia as always has a relatively close eye on, well, everyone. 

[Cain]

It's not so much the zones of influence, though that is still a factor, but that the national boundaries were drawn up by Western diplomats with no consideration as to what people in the region may have actually wanted, or the various sectarian, ethnic and linguistic differences on the ground.

I mean, no-one in their right mind would create Syria or Iraq unless they were looking to make an internally conflicted, weak state where a western power could back one particular minority group to take power and sustain them in power with their own military force.  You know, the standard colonial procedure, using the threat of mass uprising or withdrawal of support to keep an unstable ruling elite in line.  That's all great and dandy, when you're intending to hold a region until you squeeze the last viable drop of precious black gold out of it, but rather less useful when you want a region that isn't dissolving into disturbing precursors to WWI every 20 years or so.

In that sense, ISIS are broadly equivalent with those nasty nationalist groups hanging around the Austro-Hungarian and Russian Empire at the turn of the century, with their own contextual twist (Arab nationalism having almost utterly failed to address the problems of the Middle East, it has been thoroughly abandoned and replaced by religious fundamentalism....not that religion has proved any better at solving the issues.  But it does have better and more persuasive built-in reasons to explain away it's failure).

Occasionally, some people have suggested this isnt the best approach to the Middle East, and perhaps if things were partitioned differently then it may help stabilize the region.  Ralph Peters (who is admittedly something of a neocon nutter at times) came up with this suggestion:



You'll notice Iraq is currently breaking up almost exactly along those lines.

And the sectarian issues that plague Iraq also plague, to a certain extent, Syria, Lebanon, south-eastern Turkey and even the Gulf states.  That's why redrawing the map is not a terrible idea, even if it is being proposed by terrible people.  ISIS has become a regional problem precisely because of the regional issues, and even if ISIS are defeated, these regional issues will no doubt be popping up again in another 20 years time.  The underlying conditions, of weak Arab states pursuing narrow sectarian agendas against the wishes and inclination of large sections of their population, needs to change.

Or else the region is just going to keep generating terrorism and failed states and war.

[Junkenstein]

Thank Cain, As always it's appreciated.

I can't help but notice Israel/the west bank on that graph and the proposal there. I can't see that occurring and even in this re-write, it's quite the bout of horrormirth to see that the Palestinans still seem to get screwed. I assume however, that any re-write will bring a whole new set of fringe cases, land grabs and grudges.

I suppose though, Terrorism, failed states and war are quite profitable endeavours, for the right people in the right industries.