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Messages - Cain

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Aneristic Illusions / Re: OK, so this is odd
« on: October 10, 2014, 03:40:38 pm »
As hilarious as number one sounds, at the moment number 2 may be more accurate.

One of the key pillars of his fathers rule was the Organization and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers’ Party...essentially an unaccountable secret police force inside the party, with the power to put anyone they liked under surveillance (among other things).  The OGD was not successfully fully transferred to Kim Jong-Un before his father's death and Kim's own backers and loyal allies came with him, from Switzerland. And they tend to be around his age.  By contrast, the OGD are the elite of the elite when it comes to North Korean political infighting.

Chances are, there was a power struggle between the OGD and Kim's Switzerland posse, and the latter lost.  Badly.  OGD would ensure continuity of government through their institutional power, leaving Kim as a titular figurehead.

Kim may have also been injured in an otherwise bloodless palace coup by the OGD or a similar faction, thus necessitating his treatment before being put on the puppet strings and rolled out for public consumption.

also agreed.

Got sent home today for feeling sick. Not sure with what though. I was feeling short of breath, feverish, dizzy and there was a pain in my side. I'm starting to wonder if i'm cut out to work so many young kids like this. I'm worried the stress is what's making me sick.

Recently I had a similar spell... I wonder if it's related?

You both have Ebola.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Random News Stories
« on: October 10, 2014, 03:25:03 pm »
Yeah, Scottish nationalists also tend to be more socialist in orientation - whether that's a genuine ideological position or taken simply to piss off the English neoliberal consensus is a matter for debate.

UKIP, by contrast, are very enamoured with the Tea Party, American style-libertarianism, right wing populism and culture war of a counterjihadist kind.  Spend some time reading today's Daily Mail and The Sun, and imagine a political party run off those espoused viewpoints.  Voila, you have UKIP.

Also, can't help but snigger at Farage crowing about a "revolution" in British re-electing someone who has already sat in Parliament for the best part of a decade.  Much lol, very amuse, so revolt.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: OK, so this is odd
« on: October 10, 2014, 03:21:14 pm »
Yeah Faust, that's definitely another thing.  An obviously transparent lie like that really stands out.  There have been observations that the North Korean media is trying to diversify its coverage of the regime, and not rely on "all-Kim all the time" overexposure....a far cleverer lie would've been something which bolstered that observation, though since it would require a level of reflexive understanding of how the media reports on and views North Korea, it was always an unlikely option.

Junk, most observers believe that the military has the most to gain from NK's provocative, omnibelligerent and isolationist stance, and has effectively sidelined the Korean Workers Party, who are descended from the original KWP core who supported Kim Sung-il (which is why they are a big deal - ideological location of the state and important symbol of continuity and legitimate authority).  China, by contrast, has been supporting the Workers Party, in hope of opening up and liberalizing North Korea.  In any such scenario, China would be the favourite party to win bids for extensive mining rights...and North Korea is very rich in raw materials and minerals.

Aneristic Illusions / OK, so this is odd
« on: October 10, 2014, 07:08:38 am »
There's been lots of speculation lately that Kim Jong-Un is...well, no-one is quite sure what has happened to him.

He hasn't been seen in over a month now.  This has led to speculation that he's been overthrown in a coup or is deathly ill or something.  I've been ignoring that sort of thing up until now because if there is one thing I know about North Korea, it's that press reporting on its politics is usually hilariously wrong.  You have to remember, this is the same press that, half of the time, is convinced North Korea is a monolithic block under the direct totalitarian rule of its pudgy man-child leader.

But Kim was missing from an anniversary meeting of the Workers Party, which is something of a big deal.  A really big deal in fact.

It doesn't necessarily argue in favour of a coup or similar, because the normal indictations of a coup are not present.  High level delegations are being sent around the world still, which wouldn't be happening in a coup scenario (the chaos in North Korea would see many ambitious people looking to consolidate their position), and there hasn't been much in the way of unusual troop movements.

But something odd is going on.

Unix fails to include ddate.

Massive security vulnerability found in Unix.  Coincidence?  I think not.

Card looks interesting, but my current setup should suffice for now...assuming it actually gets fixed.

Sting?  STING?

Even Green Day have more right to be on that list than Sting, as a solo artist, does.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare
« on: October 09, 2014, 09:48:29 am »
ICSR tends to conservative baselines in their estimates, in my experience.

Interesting that women are catching up in Islamist circles.  As a rule, female terrorists are well represented except in those groups, for obvious reasons.  Of course, in those circles there also may be the possibility that male terrorists are purposefully putting female supporters in more passive roles, for obvious reasons.

Possibly the most satisfying thing ever:

It always is.  Without exception.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare
« on: October 09, 2014, 05:18:22 am »
Kobane's gonna fall.  The UK and USA are warning about "the limits of air-power"...which you'll notice was never mentioned at all last month, while we were debating getting involved with our air forces.  So, they're managing expectations which means they expect a clusterfuck which will decimate the PKK.

That and ISIS has already entered the city.  Reports of heavy fighting inside the town mean they've established a hold somewhere in the town itself and are moving fighters in via the breach.

Turkish military are still sat on their hands, waiting for ISIS and the Kurds to kill each other off, presumably.  What I don't get is "why now?"  ISIS previously besieged the town in July, not to any great amount of success.  Suddenly, they've flipped around from the Iraqi theatre back to Syria...I can see the strategic importance of the town, controlling a border crossing with rail access will give them the means to acquire a lot more men, money and material from within Turkey (not to mention control the black market in goods heading out of Syria - never forget, ISIS funds itself via criminal means which include antiquities and oil smuggling)...but I don't see why now.

And that bothers me.  ISIS are very unpredictable in their overall strategy, despite having what I would otherwise characterise as a very controlled military council and chain of command.  Meaning, it's not just happenstance and coincidence when they do something, it means they had a plan and this works as part of the next stage.  Just like when they took Fallujah and, apparently, sat on their hands for six months...they weren't doing nothing, they were building up a collection of western hostages, they were moving troops and material into Anbar for the move on Mosul, they were securing alliances with local tribes and other militant groups.  But you wouldn't know that to look at them.

So what's the plan here?  My guess is to strike hard against the Kurdish Supreme Committee.  Taking Kobane allows them to move troops into the region more freely, and harass and attack Kurdish fighters in the area.  Turkey will tacitly go along with such a plan, as we're seeing, and it allows ISIS to eliminate "Euphrates Volcano" - the PKK/FSA alliance against ISIS, who would presumably be a lynchpin in US plans to combat ISIS on the ground.

Finally convinced tech support I'm not a moron who shoved sandwiches into my CD-rom drive for kicks and that they may have actually screwed up here though they've not actually accepted liability, thus far.  Well, not explicitly, but they're sending someone to collect my laptop for repairs, which implies they are...I'm just getting ready for them to try and turn it around on me, despite the fact I didn't do anything and my computer simply spazzed out on me one day.

But with any luck, I should have a working computer again.  At some point.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Norway says No to Olympic Games.
« on: October 09, 2014, 04:50:19 am »
I'm surprised they didn't ask for their own exclusive car lanes.  They had those in London, you know.  It was pathetic and craven enough that I ran away to Poland, in shame of my adopted homeland.

They did, actually.

Ha ha!  You had pretty much the "full treatment" then.

And EoC thinks he's being satirical, but I suspect there's more truth than exaggeration in his list.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Norway says No to Olympic Games.
« on: October 08, 2014, 06:50:04 pm »
I'm surprised they didn't ask for their own exclusive car lanes.  They had those in London, you know.  It was pathetic and craven enough that I ran away to Poland, in shame of my adopted homeland.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: Random News Stories
« on: October 08, 2014, 01:20:00 pm »
Those stand-up guys at the DEA, ladies and gentlemen.

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