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An experiment with Babylon and LMNO

Started by LMNO, July 01, 2009, 10:17:23 PM

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Bebek Sincap Ratatosk

#165
July 11, 2009, 04:19:13 PM
Quote from: Cain on July 11, 2009, 03:46:27 PM
Speaking of reductionist worldviews...

It seems the debate method de jour around here lately, I figured I might as well avail myself of it ;-)


Quote from: Iason Ouabache on July 11, 2009, 04:06:21 PM
Quote from: Ratatosk on July 11, 2009, 03:43:25 PM
Quote from: Telarus on July 11, 2009, 06:43:35 AM
++approving the conditions under which a test will take place.++

This is the +5 magic club that Randi wields.

Nope there's no such thing as anything that can't be easily cataloged and explained... haven't you been reading the really real Discordian view of Magic Telarus? It's not real, doesn't exist and there's nothing more to talk about.  :lulz:
If your magical powers suddenly don't work any time they are placed under scrutiny then they aren't very useful in the real world, are they? Sure you can find all kinds of ways to mindfuck yourself and make yourself think that you are riding a unicorn with Jesus but that doesn't do anything to the objective world.

Magic is real for very narrow definitions of "magic" and "real".

Sure, because riding a unicorn with Jesus is ther sort of 'magic' that people like Mang, Telarus, Me and most other sane people that play around in that model are trying to do.

Useless debate is useless.... Its obvious that one should not risk thinking for themselves on this topic and should instead stick with their comfort zones, beliefs about reality and dogmatic ideas about what Magic is or isn't.
- I don't see race. I just see cars going around in a circle.

"Back in my day, crazy meant something. Now everyone is crazy" - Charlie Manson

bones

#166
July 11, 2009, 05:24:38 PM Last Edit: July 11, 2009, 05:53:05 PM by bones
OK LMNO, and guys, think I've got the answer.  If you've got 1-4 being low and 3-6 being high it does give you an expected correct rate of 66.6% (repeating) and if you discount the threes and fours what's left is expected 50%. If you leave it in then the number of 3&4 results also effects the expected results.

Also if you made 1-4 'low' and 5-6 'high' you would expect 66% by choosing all lows, and for every high you choose you would simply reduce your expectation a notch, eg. down to 50% if you choose 50% 'high's, and down to 33% if you choose all 'high's.

What you need is a third 'type' that balances the die rolls. Since "LOW" and "HIGH" overlap at 3&4, those results make it unbalanced. If we predict from three types, say 1-4 'low', 3-6 'high', and (1,2,5,6) as 'outer' then each die roll will be correct for 2/3 solutions, which are all equally 66.6% true.

roll        result
1            L,O
2            L,O
3            L,H
4            L,H
5            O,H
6            O,H

Rematch? I would like to make predictions too.

edited to fix the bold bit
film / music

Fuquad

#167
July 11, 2009, 05:47:46 PM
Quote from: bones on July 11, 2009, 05:24:38 PM
OK LMNO, and guys, think I've got the answer.  If you've got 1-4 being low and 3-6 being high it does give you an expected correct rate of 66.6% (repeating) and if you discount the threes and fours what's left is expected 50%. If you leave it in then the number of 3&4 results also effects the expected results.

Also if you made 1-4 'low' and 5-6 'high' you would expect 66% by choosing all lows, and for every high you choose you would simply reduce your expectation a notch, eg. down to 50% if you choose 50% 'high's, and down to 33% if you choose all 'high's.

What you need is a third 'type' that balances the die rolls. Since "LOW" and "HIGH" overlap at 3&4, those results make it unbalanced. If we predict from three types, say 1-4 'low', 3-5 'high', and (1,2,5,6) as 'outer' then each die roll will be correct for 2/3 solutions, which are all equally 66.6% true.

roll        result
1            L,O
2            L,O
3            L,H
4            L,H
5            O,H
6            O,H

Rematch? I would like to make predictions too.
Damn.

And each result has a 2/3 chance of happening.

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Mesozoic Mister Nigel

#168
July 11, 2009, 08:04:44 PM
This works!

Now, all Magick Boy has to do is correctly predict a statistically improbable percentage of the rolls.
"I'm guessing it was January 2007, a meeting in Bethesda, we got a bag of bees and just started smashing them on the desk," Charles Wick said. "It was very complicated."

fomenter

#169
July 11, 2009, 08:09:10 PM
how many times are we running the experiment to be reasonably conclusive?
"So she says to me, do you wanna be a BAD boy? And I say YEAH baby YEAH! Surf's up space ponies! I'm makin' gravy... Without the lumps. HAAA-ha-ha-ha!"


hmroogp

The Good Reverend Roger

#170
July 11, 2009, 08:17:33 PM
Quote from: fomenter on July 11, 2009, 08:09:10 PM
how many times are we running the experiment to be reasonably conclusive?

Too many fucking times.

Problem with mahdjgickque is that if the test is set up accurately, mahdgickque doesn't work.

Let me restate that:  It doesn't fucking work.  It's fucking wish-fulfillment fantasy bullshit, and anyone who believes in beyond the age of about 8 is fit only for the mockery and scorn of those around them.

That is all.  You may now return to testing for non-existent shit.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

fomenter

#171
July 11, 2009, 08:33:14 PM
stating the obvious doesn't help milk the funny cow,
i don't think anyone is putting money on magic boy being successful (if you are i will take the bet)  its experimenting for fun and laughs
"So she says to me, do you wanna be a BAD boy? And I say YEAH baby YEAH! Surf's up space ponies! I'm makin' gravy... Without the lumps. HAAA-ha-ha-ha!"


hmroogp

The Good Reverend Roger

#172
July 11, 2009, 08:34:57 PM
Quote from: fomenter on July 11, 2009, 08:33:14 PM
stating the obvious doesn't help milk the funny cow,
i don't think anyone is putting money on magic boy being successful (if you are i will take the bet)  its experimenting for fun and laughs

And I'm yelling for fun and laughs.

Or is there a rule against pointlessly spazzing out, now?
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

fomenter

#173
July 11, 2009, 08:36:06 PM
not at all, not at all  :lulz:
"So she says to me, do you wanna be a BAD boy? And I say YEAH baby YEAH! Surf's up space ponies! I'm makin' gravy... Without the lumps. HAAA-ha-ha-ha!"


hmroogp

The Good Reverend Roger

#174
July 11, 2009, 08:37:24 PM
Quote from: fomenter on July 11, 2009, 08:36:06 PM
not at all, not at all  :lulz:

I mean, it's not like I'm gonna convince anyone, right?

Most of you agree with me, apparently, and the mushy-headed hippies won't listen anyway.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

fomenter

#175
July 11, 2009, 08:47:21 PM
 de mushing a hippie brain is not easy to do for sure :lulz:
i expect great squirming and epic funny excuse making when the magicians fail to predict or influence the numbers in this experiment, i doubt it will straighten out there ideas about magic much though..
"So she says to me, do you wanna be a BAD boy? And I say YEAH baby YEAH! Surf's up space ponies! I'm makin' gravy... Without the lumps. HAAA-ha-ha-ha!"


hmroogp

Rococo Modem Basilisk

#176
July 12, 2009, 02:46:06 PM
I will be willing to generate experimental results for the next run-through. Whether you consider my results to be in the magic group or the control group is up to you -- I don't see any difference.

If I get 85% right, though, I am going to blame magic.


I am not "full of hate" as if I were some passive container. I am a generator of hate, and my rage is a renewable resource, like sunshine.

Cramulus

#177
July 12, 2009, 04:02:22 PM
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on July 11, 2009, 08:17:33 PM
Quote from: fomenter on July 11, 2009, 08:09:10 PM
how many times are we running the experiment to be reasonably conclusive?

Too many fucking times.

Problem with mahdjgickque is that if the test is set up accurately, mahdgickque doesn't work.

Let me restate that:  It doesn't fucking work.  It's fucking wish-fulfillment fantasy bullshit, and anyone who believes in beyond the age of about 8 is fit only for the mockery and scorn of those around them.

That is all.  You may now return to testing for non-existent shit.

I don't see what's wrong with testing those claims. I assumed you'd be 100% in support of rigorous scientific inquiry into people's alleged supernatural powers. It's so much more lulzy to have a hard, replicable result we can point to, rather than just underlining the words "it's bullshit" over and over and over again.

the cry for RESULTS forces people to explain magdick in realistic, pragmatic terms - what's it actually useful for? It can influence random numbers? cool! Let's test out that claim...

...it didn't work?? shit! really??!  :lulz:

The Good Reverend Roger

#178
July 12, 2009, 10:13:43 PM
Quote from: Enki-][ on July 12, 2009, 02:46:06 PM
I will be willing to generate experimental results for the next run-through. Whether you consider my results to be in the magic group or the control group is up to you -- I don't see any difference.

If I get 85% right, though, I am going to blame magic.

If so, your magic is FAIL.  USELESS.  A statistical deviation?  WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!  Get 100% correct, and we'll talk.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

The Good Reverend Roger

#179
July 12, 2009, 10:14:28 PM
Quote from: Cramulus on July 12, 2009, 04:02:22 PM
I assumed you'd be 100% in support of rigorous scientific inquiry into people's alleged supernatural powers.

I am.

I just wanted to hate on someone.

I gotta be me.   :)
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.
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