Author Topic: Picking Cain's Brains  (Read 27116 times)

Doktor Howl

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Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« Reply #195 on: January 24, 2019, 10:48:09 pm »
1. Maduro is a bastard.  He's the worst of Chavez and not very smart to boot.
2. He blatantly rigged the last election.  The other guy is probably the legitimate leader, as per the US and EU's comments, though I'd personally prefer a re-run under the auspices of international observers.
3. The US actually doing anything will be horrific.  It is already trying to engineer a diplomatic and possibly hostage crisis with its own embassy staff.
4. Actual action by the US is probably the one thing left that could get people to unify behind Maduro.
5. Keep an eye on Brazil.  Their new President is a neofascist who admires Trump, and the US and Brazilian military have surprisingly strong links.  Colombia would be the more logical proxy, but they're currently having issues with regards to the peace process and may be too tied up keeping the border issue maintained to do much more.

I absolutely guarantee that we will fuck the dog on this one.  169%.

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Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« Reply #196 on: January 25, 2019, 07:37:26 am »
It's looking that way.  Brazil also worries me, because the President is already having a mini-scandal over his son's links to a Rio de Jainero death squad.  Is it Wag the Dog time? I'm not clear enough on Brazil's political culture right now to say for sure  (I was both disturbed and alarmed to see just how many inroads Evangelicals had made into the nominally still Catholic Brazil and its elite power structures), but the internal political conditions there will absolutely affect their and the US response.

Doktor Howl

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Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« Reply #197 on: January 26, 2019, 04:33:59 am »
It's looking that way.  Brazil also worries me, because the President is already having a mini-scandal over his son's links to a Rio de Jainero death squad.  Is it Wag the Dog time? I'm not clear enough on Brazil's political culture right now to say for sure  (I was both disturbed and alarmed to see just how many inroads Evangelicals had made into the nominally still Catholic Brazil and its elite power structures), but the internal political conditions there will absolutely affect their and the US response.

Does Brazil even have the infrastructure to attack Venezuela?  I know they can punch Uruguay, Argentina, etc, but Venezuela is on the other end of the rain forest.

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Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« Reply #198 on: January 26, 2019, 10:27:43 am »
They've actually been relocating troops to the northern Amazon for a couple of decades now as part of a long-term plan to bolster border security in the north, but their overall prescence is pretty patchy.  The plan was to bring in the military, build the infrastructure, and populate the north with displaced residents from the northeast region, but with the fall of the military government, everything except the first one stalled.  They do have the airports, but the highways are in bad shape.

That said, my thinking was Brazilian soldiers (with US oversight) training Venezuelans and sending them through the barely defended border.  There's a lot of Venezuelan refugees in Florida (for the wealthy ones) and Colombia (for the poor ones), and with Elliot Abrams in the mix, we know death squads are going to be a plan somewhere along the way.