Its all kicking off in downtown Cairo...

[The Good Reverend Roger]

So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

I agree.

If their military was REALLY smart, they'd start using their medical corps to treat injuries on both sides.  Assuming they haven't already.

[Adios]

So far as I've seen, the army has been very warmly received by the people, and have reciprocated.

Every instance I've heard of the army's involvement has been to position itself to protect the protesters from the police.  There may be cases where that isn't happening, but I haven't heard of them.

Mubarik is done.  Stick a fork in him.

I agree.

If their military was REALLY smart, they'd start using their medical corps to treat injuries on both sides.  Assuming they haven't already.

I saw a clip on AlJazeera before it was shut down that showed some protesters removing a policeman from a vehicle. The cop was trying to protect himself but the crowd took his baton, shield and helmet from him. Then they gently sat him on the curb and treated his wounds. It was pretty impressive.

[Cain]

Calling it now: an alliance of intelligence officers and medium-high ranked military personnel with links to the American government.  They'll ally with the protestors to oust Mubarak (or, more likely, stand aside and do nothing while the protestors do the heavy lifting), establish a more open government with some civil society input, maybe even a bit of power for the Muslim Brotherhood...so long as overall foreign policy and military strategy remains in the hands of the securocrats.

[Phox]

Calling it now: an alliance of intelligence officers and medium-high ranked military personnel with links to the American government.  They'll ally with the protestors to oust Mubarak (or, more likely, stand aside and do nothing while the protestors do the heavy lifting), establish a more open government with some civil society input, maybe even a bit of power for the Muslim Brotherhood...so long as overall foreign policy and military strategy remains in the hands of the securocrats.

You've been peeking at the CIA playbook, haven't you? 

[LMNO]

Question: Currently, the military has said (certain video aside) that they will not harm peaceful protesters.

When do you think they'll finally say, "fuck it, start shooting"?

[Cain]

Phox, actually I was chatting about it with some China experts.  None of us have any special Middle East knowledge, but generally we know our stuff.

LMNO, if my scenario is correct, they wont.  If its not...when the foreign cameras are no longer present.

[Adios]

Overall the peaceful nature of all of this is almost surreal. Millions of protesters and only roughly 100 deaths. Now that the police are off the streets there is no more violence from the protesters.

This could possibly be the most civilized revolution ever.

[Phox]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

[Adios]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

No agency could make it peaceful. I tend to think it has to be the nature of the people. No one is driving the bus here. It makes me want to visit one day.

[Phox]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

No agency could make it peaceful. I tend to think it has to be the nature of the people. No one is driving the bus here. It makes me want to visit one day.

Make it peaceful? No. Bribe/influence the military to not shoot up the civvies, more likely. I don't think the protesters are under any influence, and they are being incredibly peaceful. But given the way these sorts of things usually play out when men like Mubarak are in power, the lack of violence is absolutely astonishing, and I can't quite bring myself to believe it isn't either a ploy to use as propaganda, or a backroom deal made with foreign powers.

Also, thinking about the domino effect. If a peaceful revolution could occur in Egypt, then that might give Saudi Arabia and Israel more room to throw their weight around in Syria and Yemen if they get violent, though we will see. I'm probably way off the mark.

But you could be right, Charley. I'm jsut so jaded by the politics of the Middle East as I understand them, and the politics of the US in relation to the Middle East to have that much faith in humanity. 

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

Hogwash.  If the CIA were involved, they'd have blown up the Sudan by accident a week ago.

[Phox]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

Hogwash.  If the CIA were involved, they'd have blown up the Sudan by accident a week ago.

You have a good point, Roger. I tend to underestimate the staggering incompetence of the CIA. I blame Tom Clancy novels. 

[Adios]

heh, ripple effects.

The king of Jordan dismissed his government Tuesday and appointed a new prime minister with orders to implement political reform.

The dismissal follows several protests calling for change in Jordan -- protests that echo demonstrations that have swept across North Africa and the Middle East in the last few weeks.

King Abdullah II asked Marouf Al Bakhit to form a government in Jordan that will implement "genuine political reform," the Royal Court said in a statement.

The government will "take practical steps, quick and concrete, to launch a process of genuine political reform" and "comprehensive development," according to a letter from the king to Al Bakhit. It also will act to strengthen democracy, the letter said.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/01/jordan.government/index.html?hpt=C1

[Phox]

heh, ripple effects.

The king of Jordan dismissed his government Tuesday and appointed a new prime minister with orders to implement political reform.

The dismissal follows several protests calling for change in Jordan -- protests that echo demonstrations that have swept across North Africa and the Middle East in the last few weeks.

King Abdullah II asked Marouf Al Bakhit to form a government in Jordan that will implement "genuine political reform," the Royal Court said in a statement.

The government will "take practical steps, quick and concrete, to launch a process of genuine political reform" and "comprehensive development," according to a letter from the king to Al Bakhit. It also will act to strengthen democracy, the letter said.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/01/jordan.government/index.html?hpt=C1

Hmmm. Political posturing or genuine "genuine political reform"? Tough call.

[Cain]

Yeah, the level of violence (or lack thereof) smacks of foreign influence. It's exactly within the CIA's MO to pull something like this to preserve Egypt's role in the balance of power. Alternatively, they could be using it as means of keeping Mubarak in power ("see? see? he's not a mean ol' violent dictator like those other ones"), but I think your scenario plays out more in the fashion of CIA's penchant for Xanatos Roulette. Of course, it may not be just the CIA, or the CIA at all. Which means my idea means absolute jack. 

You have absolutely no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Why would the CIA gamble with the stability of a dependable foreign dictator who has been their ally for three decades?  In order to believe that scenario, you'd have to assume the CIA give a shit about democracy, a laughable assertion on the face of it.  You'd then have to believe the CIA somehow hid all knowledge of this planning from the White House, State Dept and Pentagon.

In fact, a foreign influenced revolution would be more violent, especially if the CIA were behind it.  The CIA dont shy away from terrorism when it suits their purposes, and in which case the coup would definitely come from within the military and intelligence circles, instead of spontaneous street protests.

This isn't fucking Iran.  You do not overthrow dictators unless your own allies are going to benefit.  Mubarak was a pliable ally on most issues, and the ones he was not pliable on were not important enough for him to be overthrown for.